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Dallas needs this game more than the Spurs. If we win, the series is effectively over.
If we lose, I think it is a toss-up, but we could still win it. We could take another game in Dallas I think, if needed.
As obvious as the statement that water is wet. But, yes, game 4 is pivotal. In fact, in my opinion, it is overwhelmingly likely that the winner of game 4 wins the series. And this for the obvious reason, if Dallas wins game 4, then it is a best of 3 series with Dallas having hca. On the other hand, if we win, then Spurs are up 3-1 and are very likely to win the series (of course, anything is possible and Dallas is a very good team, very capable of beating us).
Dirk has already said as much in the press conference following game 3. And we all remember what Dirk said after the Mavs fell down 2 to 1 against the Warriors. Lol. Good times ! I still watch that series (have it saved after buying it from nba.com ) just for kicks.
What we have done thus far is all for nothing if we don't win this game.
The Mavs will come out desperate. I would not be surprised if they take a decent lead, but I expect us to slowly chip away at it, make a patented third quarter run led by Manu, and win a fairly close game at the end. I believe that our guys will be humble and be ready for a tremendous battle from the Mavs.
Mavs win game 5. probably. But we are great at close out games.
We close them out in 6.
My prediction for Game 4:
Spurs 99 Mavs 94
Keys:
1. Keep turnovers to a minimum.
2. Rebounding.
3.Somebody to be the fourth scorer - Jefferson or Hill probably.
Off topic, but I expect the Lakers to blow out the Thunder after their humiliating loss, if they can. If it is close, that is a sign that something is terribly wrong with the Lakers. After this kind of embarrassment, the Lakers will give full effort to play their very best basketball and take revenge. If it is close, then their best, even at home, is not much better than the Thunder. I predicted this series would go six (I predicted Lakers in 6). At this time, it is not clear that it will only go six since OKC may very well win game 6.
What is your prediction for game 4 ?
Last edited by Mavs<Spurs; 04-25-2010 at 12:58 AM.
Dallas needs this game more than the Spurs. If we win, the series is effectively over.
If we lose, I think it is a toss-up, but we could still win it. We could take another game in Dallas I think, if needed.
The only pivotal game is an actual deciding game. God, you people LOVE your drama.
I don't agree with this assessment at all. It's not "obvious"...at all.
The only thing we can go by is the facts of the current series.
Forget about "the team who went up 2-1 in the past has historically won the series." Note: I'm obviously not asking the original poster to "forget" this, because he didn't bring it up. But, I've seen this little statistic brought up by other posters and it's a classic case of gambler's fallacy.
What we know from this series is that the spurs are clearly capable of winning in dallas - they won game 2 in dallas.
If the Mavs were to win tomorrow, they would prove that, in this series, they are capable of winning in san antonio. They'd regain home court advantage, but to suggest that the fact that they win game 4 (if they do) makes them infallibly the winner of the series is amateurish.
To be honest, even my supposition that the spurs have "proved" they can win in dallas is, to a lesser extent, a case of gambler's fallacy.
It's getting slightly annoying seeing this "all or none" mentality by spurs fans on this board so often. We win a game and the forums explode. We lose a game or even talk about losing a game, and the series is suddenly "over."
Let's try to find a rational middle ground, shall we?
care to guess the percentages in this situation ?
How often the winner of game 4 (when it is 2-1 in favor of the team that originally did not have hca) wins the series ?
I'll try to give you an example to expose your fallacy.
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the winner of game 4 has won the series 100% of the time in that scenario you put forth.
If that is the case, then your argument is similar to suggesting the following: Say we have a fair coin. We flip the coin 4 times and the result comes up as "heads" all four times.
"Heads" coming up each of those times is analogous to the "winner of game 4 winning the series (when it's 2-1 in favor....etc.etc."
What you are suggesting is that because the team who has won game 4 has won 100% of the time (I don't know if it's 100%, but we already said we'd assume that for the sake of argument, I'm too lazy to look up the actual statistic) that there is a 100% chance that the winner of game 4 will win this series.
That's equivalent to suggesting that because we flipped the coin 4 times and the result has been heads 100% of the time, then the probability of flipping heads on the 5th try is also 100%.
Obviously, that's not the case, the true probability of flipping heads is 50%.
What's the true probability that the Mavs or Spurs will win this series? It's..literally impossible to figure out. The parameters going into such a calculation would be so varied and complex that it's probably not even worth trying (although people like Hollinger do their best)
You seem to misunderstand gambler's fallacy.
Current coin toss is not affected by previous coin tosses.
Hint: coins are not human, no conditional probability is involved....
I have a master's degree in math, am a ph.d. student who just won an academic excellence award ... Let's not be condescending. We can both expect that the other person is educated and intelligent.
And who in the said that the series was over and could not be won back. I am saying that if Dallas wins, they are very likely to win the series. And that is simple realism. But it is far from fatalism or a defeatist at ude. Spurs still might win the series even if they lose game 4. But the more likely outcome, in my opinion, would be that the Mavs would win the series.
I would suggest that there is a reason why teams who hold hca in a tied series with only 3 games remaining win the series.
Don't care about your awards or qualifications. I'm a 2nd year medical student, but you're welcome to teach me something about neurophysiology or genetics. I don't know it all.
The fact remains, that you are still using past performance to predict performance in the current series.
Isn't it possible that the team that won game 4 (and gained or retained HCA) won in the past not solely or even primarily due to their HCA, but for other factors? It's entirely possible, and it's very difficult to tease these other factors out.
ignore these bag wanna be sta icians/hollingers...
WINNER OF GAME 4 WINS THE SERIES. PERIOD.
The fact that the team with HCA after game for has won the series suggests that there is a correlation between holding HCA after game 4 and winning the series. It's a positive correlation, but a correlation nonetheless.
Don't be condescending if you don't want to be called out on it. If you aren't a mathematician and act like you are the authority on mathematics, don't be surprised if somebody with my background is going to reply in this manner.
You did misunderstand gambler's fallacy because you undeniably applied it inappropriately. When you talk down to somebody and you were wrong when you did it, you place yourself in harm's way. That's why it is better to be charitable towards others. When you are rude and wrong, it is worse than when you are charitable and wrong. When you are charitable towards others, they are more likely to be charitable towards you.
I never supposed that you were not intelligent or educated. On the contrary, I explicitly stated that I was beginning with that belief. And I retain it.
What do they have in common ?
It is indubitably true that HCA is a very significant advantage.
People who can't admit this are not being reasonable.
This series will be far from over even if the Spurs squeeze out a game 4 win. Two out of the 3 remaining games will be played in Dallas. Dallas has the best road record in the NBA. The Mavs can certainly run off three in a row.
Take a look at the 2006 series. Spurs trailed 3-1. The spurs rallied to take games 5 and 6 and nearly took game 7 if it wasn't for the bad foul on Dirk.
The Spurs ABSOLUTELY must win game 4 if they entertain thoughts of winning the series.
Only 8 times has a team come back from a 3-1 deficit in the NBA.
So, by that token, Game 4 practically is a must-win for the Mavs.
I thought Game 2 was a necessity. Game 4 would be really nice, but not a necessity.
Game 4 is a must win not only do we retain HCA but we make it a nearly impossible up hill battle for Dallas if they hope to advance to the next round.
Every game is a must win in the playoffs.
I've yet to see a game where it was said "meh, we can lose that one"
Coins don't get PMS - Dirk Nowitzki does. Both of you math whizzes need to take some electives.
winner of Game 4 wins the series.
'book it' ....
A part of me doesn't even want to watch this game, Friday's game probably shorten my life a bit during the 17-0 run
i was going to call both of them out but you've already done it
good job, sir
The seeds of doubt have been planted in the Mavs. Carlisle added fertilizer by benching two starters for pretty much an entire half.
IMO, I think that the Mavs won't be able to recover quickly enough. They will come out desperate for something to go their way. If the first quarter is the same as game 2 and 3, then the Mavs are in serious trouble. Those seeds will start sprouting all over that team and they might quickly crumble. It is time to see what the Mavs are really made of. If the Mavs lose this game, they are flat out finished... probably Spurs in 5.
My Spurs in 5 thought is based upon the notion of all the pressure that Dallas recieves to perform after so many disappointments in the past (and a Spurs win Sunday). This might explain why the Mavs were so good on the road. If the Mavs return to Dallas down 3-1, the homecourt could be toxic to that team.
My prediction is that the Spurs do win G4 and win it handily.
EDIT: If the Spurs come out flat, this is still a series.
Last edited by xellos88330; 04-25-2010 at 03:34 AM.
Winner of Game 4 does not win the series....
It has been said by radio heads and ESPN puppets that no one has won a series being down 3-1.
There is a first time for everything.
Spurs should NOT get complacent if they win tomorrow.
I think the Spurs DO win tomorrow, but lose game 5. Spurs in 6 is my prediction. Dallas is a scary team though and Spurs have been known to lay a few eggs this season. You never know.
Dont get complacent.
it's enough we have to deal with wannabe Scouts, Coaches, GMs, and Owners throughout the year, now we have to deal with mathematicians! WGAF what you are, Winner of game 4 will PROBABLY win the series!
secretly..... Im hoping for a Spurs win tomorrow, then a loss in game 5.... so I can go to game 6 and watch the Spurs beat the hated mavericks on our own court.
I wouldnt be disapointed at all if we smashed their collective mouths in at their court though!
As far as Spurs-Mavs series goes, the winner of game 3 has always taken the series, IIRC. Going by the numbers, the pivotal game was the last one...care to guess the percentages in this situation ?
How often the winner of game 4 (when it is 2-1 in favor of the team that originally did not have hca) wins the series ?
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