The Obvious: Game 4 is Pivotal - winner wins series

[ElNono]

And I fully expect the Mavs to come out with desperation... I hope the Spurs match their intensity...

[JustinJDW]

In my mind, ever game in the Playoffs is a must win. I have never seen a Playoff game where your at ude can be like, "Eh, we can concede the game. We'll be alright."

Oh, and what is with all this "Winner of Game 4 is Winner of Series" crap. Last time I ing checked, the winner of the Series is the team that won the 4 Games out of a 7-Game Series Format. I am sure glad the Spurs players don't have the mentality the people on SpursTalk have. The Series is 2-1 and suddenly everyone is blowing their loads.

Take games one at a time. DON'T EVER ASSUME YOU HAVE A GAME AND DON'T EVER TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED! EVER!

[m33p0]

destined to be a classic. it's not going to be about talent, or coaching, or chemistry... it's going to be about who has the guts to rip it out of the hands of the other.

[circ]

Is it just me or do the Spurs always seem to have that one game in a series where everything goes wrong and they get blown-out?
wide open clanked shots, fouls, turnovers, bad foul calls, missed easy layups, bad rotations, decent defense on a bunch of plays and the opp. making an impossible shot leaving the opponent smiling and giddy, etc.

That's the only thing that concerns me at this point.

wawh waaawh

[boutons_deux]

In 2-2 series, it's the winner of Game5 that wins the series like 85% of the time. (see Spurs '05, even after two wipeouts in Game3,4)

The Lakers are 17-0 in 2-2 Game5s.

Taking 3-1 back to Dallas would be so sweet. duh

[Agloco]

As obvious as the statement that water is wet. But, yes, game 4 is pivotal. In fact, in my opinion, it is overwhelmingly likely that the winner of game 4 wins the series.

I was gonna start a thread on this very topic yesterday but the site seemed to be down. I agree 100%. The winner of Game 4 likely wins the series.

MY prediction?

Spurs 98 Mavs 89

Oh, and for anyone still doubting that Manu is the difference maker for the Spurs is clearly delusional.

[Agloco]

In 2-2 series, it's the winner of Game5 that wins the series like 85% of the time. (see Spurs '05, even after two wipeouts in Game3,4)

The Lakers are 17-0 in 2-2 Game5s.

Taking 3-1 back to Dallas would be so sweet. duh

Your stat is correct, but I think the people who are talking about Game 4 being so pivotal do so because they don't see the Spurs taking another game in Dallas (myself included).

Also, this situation is a bit different from the one you outlined. In the Detroit series, both Games 6 and 7 were in SA. Two of the last three would be in Dallas in this case.

[TampaDude]

Your stat is correct, but I think the people who are talking about Game 4 being so pivotal do so because they don't see the Spurs taking another game in Dallas (myself included).

Also, this situation is a bit different from the one you outlined. In the Detroit series, both Games 6 and 7 were in SA. Two of the last three would be in Dallas in this case.

Yes, but we've already won in Dallas, so we can do it again.

[emanueldavidginobili]

I believe if we win game 4 we can also win game 5 easily we already proved we can be up on this team by 20 at their place, it would be huge if we won in 5 the rest would be hugeeee.

[m33p0]

whoever wins 4 wins the series.

i dare anyone to defy my prophecy.

[galvatron3000]

ignore these bag wanna be sta icians/hollingers...

WINNER OF GAME 4 WINS THE SERIES. PERIOD.

Wow your video shows one of the worst calls in history not to mention the worst commentary that says we didn't see what actually happened but what the ref say by former Spurs' player Steve Kerr

[boutons_deux]

Spurs in 06 vs Mavs, 1-3. Spurs would have come back from 1-3 to win that series 4-3, except The Hand Of Manu. These Mavs could come back from 1-3

Think of Spurs 05 coming back to SA from Auburn Hills 3-2, then fail to close out in Game6.

Spurs and Mavs are so close, every next game is pivotal, esp with the Mavs as best road record in NBA, that the series will be over when it's over.

[galvatron3000]

Spurs in 06 vs Mavs, 1-3. Spurs would have come back from 1-3 to win that series 4-3, except The Hand Of Manu. These Mavs could come back from 1-3

Think of Spurs 05 coming back to SA from Auburn Hills 3-2, then fail to close out in Game6.

Spurs and Mavs are so close, every next game is pivotal, esp with the Mavs as best road record in NBA, that the series will be over when it's over.

05 Spurs are far superior to any Mavs team you can think of

[Kori Ellis]

In 2-2 series, it's the winner of Game5 that wins the series like 85% of the time. (see Spurs '05, even after two wipeouts in Game3,4)

The Lakers are 17-0 in 2-2 Game5s.

Taking 3-1 back to Dallas would be so sweet. duh

Impossible. They lost Game 5 to the Spurs in 2003 when the series was tied 2-2. http://www.nba.com/playoffs2003/round2_west1.html

[ohmwrecker]

Really? Put down your calculators and protractors. It's just this simple: The Spurs win game 4 and Dallas has to win 3 in a row to win the series. Dallas wins game 4 and both teams have to win 2 out of three to win. It's a must win for both teams.

[ShoogarBear]

It has been said by radio heads and ESPN puppets that no one has won a series being down 3-1.

Really? Whoever said that is wrong. As True Blue Old School Spur Fan knows. (1978 vs. Bullets)

Also the Sixers blew a 3-1 lead to the Celtics in 1981.

Those are two I can think of, there are 1 or 2 more.

[DPG21920]

Mavs are a great road team and they rightly seem very, very confident for game four. They know they just had to get a split in these two games, and that opportunity is today. This will be the Mavs best game of the series to date. Spurs better be sharp.

[gospursgojas]

I still think the SPurs are ok if they lose this game. Its a 2-2 series and I predicted the Spurs in 6

[EmptyMan]

whoever wins 4 wins the series.

i dare anyone to defy my prophecy.

According to my calculations, that statement is erroneous. I have spent many years carrying out extensive research on the 4 wins fallacy.

[EricB]

Really? Whoever said that is wrong. As True Blue Old School Spur Fan knows. (1978 vs. Bullets)

Also the Sixers blew a 3-1 lead to the Celtics in 1981.

Those are two I can think of, there are 1 or 2 more.

Didn't Orlando in 2003 do it too? The infamous "I've always wanted to make it out of the first round" line by Tracy Mcgrady after game 4...

[gameFACE]

A must win for the Mavs, yes. A must win for the Spurs, no theoretically. The Spurs cannot relax.

[stnick2261]

In football, you don't call the last play of the game the "game changing play" unless you were behind and won on the last play... usually, it's a big play in the middle of the game that takes the desire out of the other team. In this case, game 4 can be a "game changer"... if the Spurs win, they are in a great position to win the series... if they don't, then the Mavs have a good chance to come back.

Yeah, flipping a coin in the past has no effect on future flipping.... but what are the odds of getting at least 1 heads in 3 tosses?... because if we win tonight, we only need 1 more win in 3 tries... and I like those odds (I believe 87.5%?)

[jack sommerset]

I don't think it matters. Mavs are the better team. Even if they lose tonight they still can go home and re-group. Carlisle ed the Mavs keeping JJ out there. Then throw Kidd and Terry beside that bag, you lose. That mistake won't happen again.

[texlawman]

Forgot all then nonsense up till tonight. I think the winner of tonight will be in the driver's seat and will win the series.

I think we have neutral refs tonight so it will be decided on the court. It should be a tire iron type of game and I'm not sure who will win.

I think the play of Butler and Jefferson will decide who wins. To me they are the "X" factors for each team. Pretty much bank on Dirk, Duncan, and Gino being good.

Can't wait.

[lurker]

I'm glad tonight's game is earlier so that I'll have time to cry afterward and still get to sleep at a reasonable hour.