Game 5 Adjustments

[Seventyniner]

In the playoffs, the question to a losing team is always this: "What adjustments will you make for the next game?" The popular view is that the most recent winner can do no wrong, and the most recent loser can do no right.

However, even the winning team cannot stay static. They must anticipate the opponent's next move, as one can never be too many steps ahead. While the Spurs hold a commanding 3-1 lead in this series, there are still things to be fixed, and enemy changes to be countered.

Parker/Hill needs to stay on Terry
Obvious, but necessary. Parker was the primary double-teamer on Dirk, and Terry is the last person you can afford to double off of, especially when he's spotted up in the corner.

Even when chasing him off the three point line, he hits the baseline jumper at a high rate. This plan may have to be abandoned if the Mavs insist on playing the Nowitzki-Terry two man game on the side of the court, or if Dirk is hitting shots like in game 1, but taking Terry out of his comfort zone is a high priority.

Bonner and Bogans will need to soak up a few minutes
The Spurs have been hailed as a deep team this season, but really are not, especially in the backcourt. Bonner, Bogans, and Mason have brought almost nothing worthwhile to the table this series, and yet benching all three of them leaves only a 7-man rotation (counting Blair who, while a great spark, is still inconsistent). Mason's one skill has deserted him this season, but Bonner and Bogans can at least play some defense on the floor against the Mavs' bench. 4-7 minutes each is all I ask for, but we can't afford to have Duncan, McDyess, or Ginobili wearing down.

Have Jefferson cut to the basket once every few possessions
This is Jefferson's bread and butter on offense. The worst role he could have is spot-up shooter, so make his defender (Kidd or Marion usually) scramble on defense and keep them guessing. A made jumper or two tends to make Jefferson work harder, but it's far more efficient to get him going with easy buckets. This is especially useful if both Dampier and Haywood happen to be sitting, though that won't happen often (or early in the game).

Duncan in the high post, or Ginobili anywhere, are the best options for getting the ball to Jefferson right when he gets to the basket.

Let Butler shoot the Mavs out of the game
I am quite comfortable letting Butler have all the shots he wants. In game 4, he was taking contested long 2s all over the place, and I can live with that. Butler with 18 shots and Nowitzki with 10? Yes, please.


Keep chasing Kidd off the three point line
Kidd's hotspot chart says it all. Luckily, he has shown a great willingness to be chased off the three point line so far this series.


Anticipation and counterattack

What might the Mavs do differently, and how can the Spurs react?

Dirk will try to take over
In game 4, Dirk got pissed down the stretch and starting driving repeatedly. Dirk draws a lot of fouls, as we all know, and is pretty good at launching a shot after the whistle. He can do a lot of damage this way, but can hurt the Mavs as well. Dirk does not pass well out of a double team while driving, so if the Spurs are going to send double teams at him, do it on the dribble, not on the catch or even the spin. Ginobili and Hill are the best ones to poke the ball away while he's dribbling.

The Mavs will try to run
Points off turnovers killed the Spurs in game 1, and kept the Mavs in game 3 longer than they should have been. Taking care of the ball is still of utmost importance. Pop will likely send 4 or more back in transition like he used to against D'Antoni's Suns. With the game in Dallas, keeping the crowd quiet is a big factor.

Carlisle's back is against the wall
Believe it or not, Carlisle is a very good coach. Facing elimination, he will pull out all the stops. Expect to see the Kidd/Barea/Terry/Nowtizki/Dampier-Haywood lineup often, because those have been the Mavs' most consistent players. If this happens, Pop can/should/will counter with his own three-guard lineup as in game 3. While the Spurs' three-guard lineup is very good, they will have to stay on their toes on defense.

[Solid D]

What might the Mavs do differently, and how can the Spurs react?

Dirk will try to take over
In game 4, Dirk got pissed down the stretch and starting driving repeatedly. Dirk draws a lot of fouls, as we all know, and is pretty good at launching a shot after the whistle. He can do a lot of damage this way, but can hurt the Mavs as well. Dirk does not pass well out of a double team while driving, so if the Spurs are going to send double teams at him, do it on the dribble, not on the catch or even the spin. Ginobili and Hill are the best ones to poke the ball away while he's dribbling.

Seventyniner, excellent mixture of shot chart hot spots and commentary. Some very good observations. While I agree that sending help to Dirk off the dribble works, I don't think the Spurs should do that INSTEAD of on the catch or even the spin. I say the Spurs should stick with mixing it up when they blitz Dirk. There were times Dirk thought a digger was coming and he gave the ball up early. When they do double Dirk, they should just do what they have been doing and that is hustle like crazy rotating over and around the horn. That hustle has made the difference since game 2.

[Dex]

Excellent post.

[raspsa]

Mavs may even be more phyical than game 4. Its their home crowd and they have all th motivation not to be embarrassed at home. Spurs should play smart and leave any complaining to Pop.

[Russ]

Here's an adjustment -- trust your preparation (5 games into the series) and don't think too much. Just go all out from the opening tip. These guys probably know the Mavs better than the Mavs know themselves at this point (not that the Mavs are particularly self-aware (and that means you, Mr. Terry)).

[raspsa]

The biggest adjustment will be to the officiating. No doubt the refs will be extra whistle happy in game 5 and the players have to be prepared for that so it doesn't throw off their game. I still think Mavs will react as all cornered animals do and will try to get even more physical to try and rattle the Spurs. The Big 3 have seen this before and the new guys seem to be good at keeping their composure. All complaining should be left to the coaching staff.

[L.I.T]

Aside from Xs & Os, the Mavs are going to come out overly physical and aggressive. The Spurs must keep their poise and weather that initial storm without losing composure.

[hommeaetage]

In other news, Dirk thinks the mavs should consider going center-less

http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/maver...ng-center-less

Should Mavs consider going center-less?

April, 26, 2010 Apr 26
3:56
PM CT

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By Jeff Caplan


DALLAS -- Here's how Dirk Nowitzki sees the defensive strategy employed by the San Antonio Spurs:

"They’re obviously not guarding our fives. That's pretty obvious," Nowitzki said. "Then on the weakside they're running at our shooters. We're having trouble shooting over their length. We're getting deep into shot clocks and we're taking some shots we don't like. We'd like to make a little quicker decisions."

If the Spurs are not guarding the Mavs' centers (and why would they? Erick Dampier is 0-of-7 from the floor in the series and Brendan Haywood is averaging 6.5 points) then should coach Rick Carlisle consider not playing a center and instead keep Shawn Marion on the floor? Marion played just 1:53 of the fourth quarter.

"That's something for coach to decide," Nowitzki said about pulling the center. "We lost three games in a row, so at this point you're desperate. You've got to try everything. We'll see how the flow of the game is tomorrow, see how we start off."

I thinnk that would be a good opportunity for the Spurs to attack the paint even more, and get Tim going on the low block. But I doubt they would do it though.

[ducks]

the key is tp
mavs should come out with fire
tp off the bench will need to attack

spurs need this game to rest up get healthy

[EricB]

If they went small I'd keep dice out there. He's proclven he can hang with tweener forwards like odom and Marion.

[Spursfanfromafar]

If the Mavs went center-less, then Timmy is going to have a far more easier time on offense and with much more chances of shot blocking in defense, while having to roam often to counter Dirk as well. I don't think the Mavs will do it rightaway, it will negate their defense too badly.

[neboat]

Get off to a good start and take the crowd out of the game

[tuncaboylu]

If Dallas plays center-less, I can't imagine how many offensive rebounds we can get. Nobody can box-out Duncan and he can finish the gme with 20+ rebounds(10+ offensive). Moreover Manu, Parker and Jefferson can drive inside to score or at least draw a faul without any fear.(Who will block them, Nowitzki?)
The main problem of Dallas is not in their offense, theşr man problem is in defense. We didn't shoot less than %45 in this series. If Dallas thinking to play center-less to increase their offensive production, they are more desperate than we think.

[raspsa]

I wish.

[spursfaninla]

Dallas playing without a center does raise the question of who duncan guards. Dirk? We tend to not want that, because dirk draws fouls so much.

If duncan is put on Marion, that draws duncan out of the post and reduces our rebounding. Plus Dallas has great rebounding guards/wings with Butler, Marion and especially Kidd.

I would not be surprised to see a small ball lineup of dirk-marion-butler-terry-kidd. That is a lot of firepower. A micro-lineup from dallas of dirk-marion-kidd-terry-barea would be crazy. We would basically be forced to match up by play RJ at the 4.

[kaji157]

The most important adjustment should be mental, and would be to completelly ignore the officialiting.
The first half will be somehow that what we've seen today in the PHX - Portland game. Portland started dominating PHX and PHX got back into the game from the FT line and by travelling and offensive fouls TO called by the refs. Almost all the bogus calls made on the first half as anyone would expect on a 5th game in PHX, favored the Suns.

I expect something similar tomorrow, first half FT differential was 6-17 in PHX favor. Roy, Howard and Camby were all early in foul trouble. The Spurs should be very focused mentally to avoid being affected by this, in the second half the calling was even, obviously, the Suns didn't need much help, with Portland bigs in foul trouble the couldn't go very hard on rebounds and protecting the paint was no easy task for portland, but i would believe that the second half would also be whistled even also if Portland had a chance to win.

Anyways, we need to be focused on limiting our aggresiveness on unmeaningfull plays and be very agressive when needed, no in betweens, inf we might get called for a foul, then we must be sure the other team is not scoring. But if we are guarding someone inmid court, we must not be agressive in that or we will be whistled for those fouls that put you in the penalty by minute 2.

[kaji157]

Dallas playing without a center does raise the question of who duncan guards. Dirk? We tend to not want that, because dirk draws fouls so much.

If duncan is put on Marion, that draws duncan out of the post and reduces our rebounding. Plus Dallas has great rebounding guards/wings with Butler, Marion and especially Kidd.

I would not be surprised to see a small ball lineup of dirk-marion-butler-terry-kidd. That is a lot of firepower. A micro-lineup from dallas of dirk-marion-kidd-terry-barea would be crazy. We would basically be forced to match up by play RJ at the 4.

I think in that case Pop would play Bonner or Blair at the 4. Not sure about how many times i saw Jefferson at 4 after Pop told him he won't be playing there anymore.

[hsxvvd]

If Dallas go small, our biggest mistake would be to match it.

If they go small, control the glass, take good shots, control the tempo and expose them.

[alchemist]

It will be a very interesting matchup tonight, I don't have a good feeling about this one but hopefully the Spurs come out firing. Put that dangerous wounded animal to sleep for good.

[OrEmuN]

Dallas playing without a center does raise the question of who duncan guards. Dirk? We tend to not want that, because dirk draws fouls so much.

If duncan is put on Marion, that draws duncan out of the post and reduces our rebounding. Plus Dallas has great rebounding guards/wings with Butler, Marion and especially Kidd.

I would not be surprised to see a small ball lineup of dirk-marion-butler-terry-kidd. That is a lot of firepower. A micro-lineup from dallas of dirk-marion-kidd-terry-barea would be crazy. We would basically be forced to match up by play RJ at the 4.

I do not like the idea of us having to go small to match their small. We should just play our game and force them to use their Centre. What Dirk fails to understand is that due to his inability to defend Duncan and need Dampier/Haywood to do so, is the reason why they are playing Centre. However, it is unsurprising to know he equate losing to not having enough offense since he does not do much defending anyway.

All we need to do is trust Duncan to defend Marion and let Marion take all the outside shots. Marion is shooting 15.8% at the 3 point line this season and 0-2 so far in the series. I will like our chances of Marion jacking up plenty of shots. Duncan can leave him to get the rebounds when needed. On the offensive end, Duncan can basically dominate whoever that guard him. After few possessions, the Mav will definitely bring in their Centre when they realised that there is no way they can defend Duncan without a big body.

[The Truth #6]

Nice work. Getting the big 3 involved should also be a priority.

[Warlord23]

I'll jump for joy if the Mavs go small. Duncan can just leave Marion and his horrendous 3 point shooting alone and lock the paint down. Not to mention we'll probably outrebound them handily.

On the other end of the floor, will they expect Dirk or Marion to guard Duncan? They'll probably resort to double-teaming Timmy a lot, which should lead to some open looks. Finally, Tony and Manu will be attacking the paint like crazy without any shot-blocking threats.

[coyotes_geek]

Dallas playing without a center does raise the question of who duncan guards. Dirk? We tend to not want that, because dirk draws fouls so much.

If duncan is put on Marion, that draws duncan out of the post and reduces our rebounding. Plus Dallas has great rebounding guards/wings with Butler, Marion and especially Kidd.

I would not be surprised to see a small ball lineup of dirk-marion-butler-terry-kidd. That is a lot of firepower. A micro-lineup from dallas of dirk-marion-kidd-terry-barea would be crazy. We would basically be forced to match up by play RJ at the 4.

That sword cuts both ways though because if the mavs want to go centerless that means Dirk has to guard Duncan.

[sa_butta]

Big 3 will not have another bad game as they did.
Limiting turnovers, rebounding, a fourth scorer and
trying not to foul the shooter would be a great start.

[K-State Spur]

I'd like to see the team get really hot from the perimeter.

Bonner & RMJ could be there small testicled selves for this series and still provide us with one game where they knock down 4-6 threes combined.