To me, this is what this series comes down to: Can Duncan dominate his favorable match-up more than Stoudemire can his? I'm not talking about points; Stoudemire will have him beat there. I'm talking about rebounding, shot blocking, drawing double teams and overall presence. Theoretically, Duncan can have a bigger impact on this series and if he does, the Spurs will win.
Duncan should be able to face and go against the slow, limited Collins and get prime post position, back down and either draw a double team or score at will on the lightweight Frye. But this series is every other day until game seven, so will he have the energy to do what he would generally do in a match-up this favorable, which is dominate? My guess is he will more often than not, which should be good enough to win this series.
Stoudemire will be a much tougher match-up for the Spurs and McDyess specifically, then Nowitzki was. That's because he's far more mobile and athletic and get's many of his points as a roll man. Whereas Nowitzki was often stationed around the pinch-post and McDyess could lock in on him and beat him up, he'll have a much more difficult time keeping a body on Stoudemire. If McDyess will have a difficult time in this match-up, then Bonner has absolutely no chance of containing the high-wire act of Stoudemire.
Tim isn't the model of consistency he once was. He has his highs and lows. I think the rest will really help him early in the series, but what happens after Game 1 no one, not even Tim Duncan knows how he'll be feeling.
This series won't be as physical as the Mavs series but expect some rough play and some flaring tempers, especially if the Spurs are doing well and they're on the receiving end of some calls.
sons didn't have to play defense against Portland, and they still couldn't defend one-on-one.
the spurs now have a lineup that features five offensive threats on the floor at all times. that's a first for this team. if the spurs move the ball around, there's no way phoenix can defend that.
Keep hanging your hat on regular season accomplishments... it's all you've got.
Totally! I mean, remember when the Suns didnt do that and Duncan went off for 41 points in that Spurs Suns game this year?
Oh wait...that was Amare.
since Nash can't guard Parker or Hill and they can't afford losing A'm'a'r'e' to foul trouble, might as well put the Canadian bacon on Tim.
you're assuming Duncan will post up each and every time.
No I'm not. I said all that in the instances where he's in the post with or without the ball, but said in instances where he has the ball on the perimeter, make him a jump shooter by backing off a smidge and letting him shoot semi-contested jumpers or, if he puts the ball on the floor, run a swarming double or triple team at him.
spurs run about 80 pick-and-rolls a game with duncan at the receiving end most of the time, and tim is one of the best in passing out of a double team.
Which is why I CLEARLY prefaced everything said about defending Duncan like Aldridge with this: "HOWEVER, much of this is likely Aldridge not having the smarts/heart to fully exploit the defensive tactic. I figure Duncan will."
However, let's not pretend that Duncan is unstoppable or incapable of being defending at all. Some of this will work, even if only part of the time.
Duncan will have a huge series. So will Amare. The one thing going for the Suns is that the Spurs don't space the floor as well as they used to, but the Suns no longer have a post defender like Kurt Thomas (anyone who thinks Robin Lopez even if he's healthy is as good a 1 on 1 post defender as Tim Duncan doesn't know anything about basketball). IMO, this series won't come down to how well Duncan plays, the way Phoenix defends Manu is a WAY bigger factor in my book.
that's true. but if i were a suns fan, i'd worry about whoever nash is guarding... unless it's bogans or mason.
It will be.
I doubt Pops allows the option, however. My guess is he runs with Parker/Hill/Manu most of the time when Nash is in, especially late!
i hope i don't see those 2 on the floor.
(cringe)
Believe it or not, I'm more concerned about Nash on offense than on defense. That sounds crazy, and sounds like a stereotypical Suns fan who doesn't care about defense, but against Portland, Nash did a lot more bad things offensively than he did defensively. Unfortunately San Antonio doesn't start a guy like Fernandez who is currently lost on offense that Nash can guard, but as long as he stays home on George Hill (unlike what Jason Kidd did) and makes him work semi-hard for his shots his D won't hurt Phoenix.
Offensively, Nash tried to force too many passes/assists that weren't there (which led to turnovers), and he completely killed the offense by dribbling all the time off the shot clock in key late game possessions. I'm a lot more concerned with him doing that.
Is that Latarian Milton?
This is a worry of mine as well. If he starts forcing crap or waiting around to force crap, then offense really stalls and if the defense can't stay compe ive, the Spurs have the consistency to take advantage where the Blazers didn't.
Yeah exactly, San Antonio has always forced Phoenix's offense into the Steve Nash 4th dribbling show, it's not gonna work now just like it didn't back then. Back then, the Suns had no other choice so it was reasonable for Nash to do that. This year, especially if his hip is hurting, Nash needs to give the ball up early in the shot clock of San Antonio isn't going to give him assist opportunities.
Phoenix Suns have tall task in defending San Antonio Spurs' Tim Duncan
by Paul Coro
The Arizona Republic
The San Antonio Spurs' perimeter is littered with scoring threats for the Suns to worry about from now until tipoff of the teams' second-round series Monday night.
But the eye of the Spurs' storm and the bane of the Suns' playoff existence has been Tim Duncan.
The Suns started this era with Amar'e Stoudemire on him in the 2005 playoffs exit. They acquired Kurt Thomas in large part to cover Duncan and lost the 2007 series. Then they had the big idea of Shaquille O'Neal before the 2008 series failure.
Duncan still is standing and the Suns still are shuffling. Robin Lopez, drafted to be the big man to cover post-ups and pick-and-rolls, got experience on Duncan this season but had his first practice in five weeks Saturday. It is unclear when he would return in this series, if at all.
Enter Jarron Collins, who was a replacement Lopez while Lopez was injured in October. The nine-year veteran likely will start on Duncan but that could just begin a carousel of defenders and zone defense.
Like Steve Nash, Duncan's demise due to age has been greatly exaggerated. At 34, Duncan averaged 18 points and 10 rebounds, both career lows, this season but did it in a career-low 31 minutes per game and shot 52 percent.
He still has the jump hook, the spinning post move, the bank shot and all the perfect footwork in between. He has his off-nights more often, closing the Dallas series with games of four, 11 and 17 points after scoring 27, 25 and 25 to start it. He can be doubled, but he deftly passes with court smarts that improve with age.
"You've got to be smart," Suns coach Alvin Gentry said. "You've got to give him a lot of different looks. I can pretty much assure you that we won't give him anything that he hasn't seen over his career that he's been able to handle so you've just got to mix it up.
"If that doesn't work, we have a couple of WWE guys that we're friends with that we're thinking of signing. If that doesn't work, I'll call up the Cardinals and say, 'Can you send us a couple defensive and offensive linemen?' "
Duncan is 6 feet 11 and longer than that from side to side when his arms are out. He is hard to miss and the Spurs don't, giving him about 25 touches per game, Gentry said.
Collins has faced Duncan only once in the playoffs, when he played 24 minutes for Utah in the 2007 conference finals. Prior to Phoenix, Collins started nearly all of eight seasons for Utah. He has been the Suns starting center since Lopez last played March 26 but often plays just the first half of first and third quarters.
"I do have a lot of experience playing against Timmy," Collins said. "It's a situation where I'm just going out there to do my job. I'm out there to defend, be physical and provide a presence down low.
"He's arguably one of the best power forwards to play the league. You've got to be physical with him. You've got to meet him early. Just try to limit his effectiveness."
Stoudemire has seen Duncan in the playoffs since his 2003 rookie debut but does not figure either will guard the other much.
"We're both very crafty offensively where we can get each other into foul trouble," said Stoudemire, who could face ex-teammate Antonio McDyess. "The smart thing to do is wait until maybe later in the game to match up."
An effective way to negate an opponent is to force him to play defense and expend energy. This is a concern with an older guy with creaky knees like Timmy. If the Suns attack Timmy, then he risks picking up fouls that would limit his effectiveness further.
Expect McDyess/Blair/Bonner to alternate against Amare, with TD taking over in crunchtime.
Also, I expect the Suns to employ hack-a-duncan strategy.., lets just hope he makes his FTs.
Duncan's d in the dallas series was starting to worry me. But in game six he played like the Tim of old. I doubt he spends energy on D in this series as well. I think he is saving himself for LA.
Tim should have a big series but like I said earlier I'm more worried about Amare.
I expect Duncan will play a little less this series than last. This series sets up perfectly for Blair to be very effective. The Suns are the 2nd worst defensive rebounding team in the league. Blair's strength is offensive rebounding. This combined with the fact that the Suns don't have a lot of length which has given Blair some problems this year indicates to me that he will get more minutes and be effective. Since he is rarely on the floor at the same time as Duncan this would lead me to believe that Duncan will be able to get more rest this series. This would be poetic justice since we got the pick for Blair from the Suns.
Doubling Aldridge was a great strategy because Portland doesn't have a bunch of dangerous weapons for LMA to pass it to. He was really their only offensive threat.
I hope Gentry plays Duncan straight up, 1-to-1.
ironyThis would be poetic justice since we got the pick for Blair from the Suns.
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