Torrorist Attack at Times Square

[LnGrrrR]

In a more perfect (counterfactual) world, things would be different.

The fact that the suspected perp is in custody and giving evidence against himself (in the routine course of ordinary LE) wouldn't represent such a tragic failure then, right?

I think I can see Yonis point though; that DHS was effectively bailed out by the hard work of Law Enforcement officials.

Somewhat like a QB who heaves an ugly bomb to a receiver who's double covered. If the receiver catches the ball, that doesn't go against the fact that it was still a poor decision by the QB, regardless of the outcome.

[Stringer_Bell]

That's one lucky street vendor. Him and everyone else in about a 1,000 foot radius around that SUV. If that bomb had functioned as intended, he would have the distinction of being the fatality closest to the detonation.

I thought they said the manure he used the wrong fertilizer, thus rendering the device capable of only being a fire ball rather than an actual bomb. There was also something up with the propane too, forget what it was though.

To me, saying we're lucky because of incompetence is not as truthful as saying we're lucky these guys aren't just strapping bombs to themselves and blowing us up in streets, gas stations, and malls. That's the real threat, but it seems like the terrorists actually want to live now...which means we can get more awesome information out of them!

[Yonivore]

I thought they said the manure he used the wrong fertilizer, thus rendering the device capable of only being a fire ball rather than an actual bomb. There was also something up with the propane too, forget what it was though.

To me, saying we're lucky because of incompetence is not as truthful as saying we're lucky these guys aren't just strapping bombs to themselves and blowing us up in streets, gas stations, and malls. That's the real threat, but it seems like the terrorists actually want to live now...which means we can get more awesome information out of them!

As I said...

"If the bomb had functioned as intended..."

And, by that, I mean, as intended by the terrorist.

We were lucky.

[Winehole23]

I think I can see Yonis point though; that DHS was effectively bailed out by the hard work of Law Enforcement officials.

This is the kernel of my judgment that LE succeeded, despite known ins utional inep ude.

To me maybe that is a case for letting ordinary LE continue to take the lead on terrorism within our borders.

[Yonivore]

This is the kernel of my judgment that LE succeeded, despite known ins utional inep ude.

They succeeded in a post-crime investigation. They're very good at that but, still, it is highly dependent on available evidence which, if the bomb had detonated, would have been scarce. I think you're conflating law enforcement's success in investigating a crime with the federal security agency's failure to stop the crime in the first place.

To me maybe that is a case for letting ordinary LE continue to take the lead on terrorism within our borders.

This wasn't an investigation conducted by ordinary law enforcement agencies using ordinary investigative techniques. They had a whole lot of resources at their disposal.

But, again, that's beside the point that, law enforcement wouldn't have been as successful if the bomb had detonated and, further, the absolute failure of or federal government would have been more glaring.

[ElNono]

Like I said, if there wasn't all this KNOWN information pointing at this guy and screaming, "I'm an Islamic Terrorist, you'd better watch me," I'd be less critical.

But he was being watched. Since 1999, right?

I mean, if you pretend LE to be actually stalking the guy that's a different story...

[ElNono]

But, again, that's beside the point that, law enforcement wouldn't have been as successful if the bomb had detonated and, further, the absolute failure of or federal government would have been more glaring.

That's actually opinion. TBH, this is not the first time we see a device like this, and we even saw one that caught fire. These home-made devices are more of the incendiary type, and don't actually destroy the vehicle in pieces like you suggest.
They certainly cause damage and could cause loss of life.
But don't forget that VIN numbers are not merely etched to the windows, but also engraved in many cart parts (engine, some transmission parts, etc).

[Yonivore]

But he was being watched. Since 1999, right?

I mean, if you pretend LE to be actually stalking the guy that's a different story...

They should have been on his ass from the moment he returned from Pakistan -- after spending 6 months there and leaving his family behind.

This only way this becomes a success for the administration is if they reveal that it was someone, at the behest of the government, that sold the terrorist bomb components they knew wouldn't work.

Frankly, I'm a bit surprised Janet Incompitano hasn't floated that balloon...particularly after saying they let the guy board the plane and then, let it begin taxiing to a runway before making their move.

[Yonivore]

That's actually opinion. TBH, this is not the first time we see a device like this, and we even saw one that caught fire. These home-made devices are more of the incendiary type, and don't actually destroy the vehicle in pieces like you suggest.
They certainly cause damage and could cause loss of life.
But don't forget that VIN numbers are not merely etched to the windows, but also engraved in many cart parts (engine, some transmission parts, etc).

So, you're an expert?

The fact is, if the bomb had worked as intended, it would have had a blast radius of approximately 800-1000 ft, would have obliterated the SUV, throwing it's remains in all directions, co-mingling it with the debris from other cars, buildings, and objects, and would have made the collection of evidence immensely more difficult.

The bomb wasn't designed to be an incendiary device, it was designed to be an explosive device.

[ElNono]

They should have been on his ass from the moment he returned from Pakistan -- after spending 6 months there and leaving his family behind.

This only way this becomes a success for the administration is if they reveal that it was someone, at the behest of the government, that sold the terrorist bomb components they knew wouldn't work.

Frankly, I'm a bit surprised Janet Incompitano hasn't floated that balloon...particularly after saying they let the guy board the plane and then, let it begin taxiing to a runway before making their move.

You seem to think these guys are amateurs. The reason they built the device with off-the-shelf material has everything to do with not raising red flags.
It's also most likely the reason it's been real hard for them to be successful in actually detonating them. Out of 4 attempts, only one ignited.

What do you pretend? To track down every american citizen that travels to Pakistan and buys propane gas? IIRC, around 200,000 people travel to Pakistan every year.

[ElNono]

So, you're an expert?

The fact is, if the bomb had worked as intended, it would have had a blast radius of approximately 800-1000 ft, would have obliterated the SUV, throwing it's remains in all directions, co-mingling it with the debris from other cars, buildings, and objects, and would have made the collection of evidence immensely more difficult.

The bomb wasn't designed to be an incendiary device, it was designed to be an explosive device.

I'm not an expert. I'm merely informed. Like I said, this is not the first time we saw a device like this.

[Yonivore]

IIRC, around 200,000 people travel to Pakistan every year.

How many are on watch lists, stay for 6 months, and leave their family behind when they return to the U.S.?

I bet it's considerably less than 200,000.

By the way, from where'd you get that figure?

[Yonivore]

I'm not an expert. I'm merely informed. Like I said, this is not the first time we saw a device like this.

Did the Glasgow bomb employ a gun safe packed with fertilizer?

[Stringer_Bell]

Frankly, I'm a bit surprised Janet Incompitano hasn't floated that balloon...particularly after saying they let the guy board the plane and then, let it begin taxiing to a runway before making their move.

Are you saying government officials purposefully exposed this terror suspect to innocent Americans in a closed setting before "making their move?" That sounds absolutely ridiculous!

[Yonivore]

Are you saying government officials purposefully exposed this terror suspect to innocent Americans in a closed setting before "making their move?" That sounds absolutely ridiculous!

I agree.

I'll try to find the article I read a couple of day ago that either suggested the DHS allowed the suspect to board the plane so they could figure out if he was alone or that DHS was floating that balloon.

But, back to the point of failures...that is another massive failure of Homeland Security and TSA.

How the does that guy even get to the jetway?

[ElNono]

How many are on watch lists, stay for 6 months, and leave their family behind when they return to the U.S.?

I bet it's considerably less than 200,000.

By the way, from where'd you get that figure?

Hindsight is 20/20. The guy was born in Pakistan. There's actual logical reasons for him to travel there and even leave his family there. And don't forget that technically speaking, Pakistan is actually an ally.

You seem to think that being on a watch list means people should have a FBI car parked in their front yard. The idea behind watch lists are to trigger a red flag if the guy, say, purchases weapons, or makes phone calls to Yemen, or tries to purchase grenades or TNT.

[ElNono]

Sorry, about the 200,000 number, it was quoted in the news about 2 nights ago as the number provided by ICE. If I can actually find a better source, I will.

[ElNono]

Did the Glasgow bomb employ a gun safe packed with fertilizer?

The fertilizer found was not explosive:

A metal rifle cabinet placed in the cargo area was packed with fertilizer, but NYPD bomb experts believe it was not a type volatile enough to explode like the ammonium nitrate grade fertilizer used in previous terrorist bombings.

[ElNono]

I agree.

I'll try to find the article I read a couple of day ago that either suggested the DHS allowed the suspect to board the plane so they could figure out if he was alone or that DHS was floating that balloon.

But, back to the point of failures...that is another massive failure of Homeland Security and TSA.

How the does that guy even get to the jetway?

When I said they needed to do some things better, this is exactly what I was referring to. I agree the guy shouldn't have been able to get even close to an airport, much less board a plane.

That said, you have to give credit that they actually corrected their mistake before it was too late.

[Yonivore]

Hindsight is 20/20. The guy was born in Pakistan. There's actual logical reasons for him to travel there and even leave his family there. And don't forget that technically speaking, Pakistan is actually an ally.

You seem to think that being on a watch list means people should have a FBI car parked in their front yard.

Only if you put all the information together; on a watch list, stays in Pakistan for 6 months, leaves family behind, and I'm sure there are other facts of which we're unaware.

The idea behind watch lists are to trigger a red flag if the guy, say, purchases weapons, or makes phone calls to Yemen, or tries to purchase grenades or TNT.

Or spends an inordinate amount of time in a country chocked full of terrorist training camps (ally or not, country of origin or not) and then comes back to the U.S. without his family.

Seems to me it's a scenario begging for surveillance.

[Yonivore]

The fertilizer found was not explosive:

A metal rifle cabinet placed in the cargo area was packed with fertilizer, but NYPD bomb experts believe it was not a type volatile enough to explode like the ammonium nitrate grade fertilizer used in previous terrorist bombings.

Do you think the terrorist believed it was explosive? I do; otherwise, why was it included in the bomb?

That it didn't work isn't the issue. The jihadi built a bomb he intended to be explosive and he drove it to Times Square and attempted to detonate it.

A massive failure of Homeland Security given what we know that they knew about this individual.

[ElNono]

Only if you put all the information together; on a watch list, stays in Pakistan for 6 months, leaves family behind, and I'm sure there are other facts of which we're unaware.

But that's exactly how you improve security. I'm sure everybody is looking at all this info through lens right now and trying to figure out what stands out as something that can be used in other cases in the future. It's a process.

Or spends an inordinate amount of time in a country chocked full of terrorist training camps (ally or not, country of origin or not) and then comes back to the U.S. without his family.

Seems to me it's a scenario begging for surveillance.

Is it? He was born there. He most likely still has family there. There's legitimate reasons for him to go there, stay there for a long time, and even let their wife and kids stay there with the rest of his family.

[Yonivore]

When I said they needed to do some things better, this is exactly what I was referring to. I agree the guy shouldn't have been able to get even close to an airport, much less board a plane.

That said, you have to give credit that they actually corrected their mistake before it was too late.

This was just another in a long list of failures by the federal security agencies in this fiasco.

And, this is where I differentiate between law enforcement and security agencies.

The bomb making it to Times Square was a failure of our security agencies.

The investigation of the crime was a success for law enforcement (though, I've already stated my opinion they were only as successful as they were because of the failure of the bomb to detonate).

The suspect being able to buy a ticket, be issued a boarding pass, pass through TSA security, enter the jetway, and board a plane full of innocent people was another failure of the security agencies.

Janet Incompitano's agency failed miserably.

[ElNono]

Do you think the terrorist believed it was explosive? I do; otherwise, why was it included in the bomb?

That it didn't work isn't the issue. The jihadi built a bomb he intended to be explosive and he drove it to Times Square and attempted to detonate it.

It is an issue when you claim that if the car would have detonated, it would have prevented LE from obtaining the information they needed to catch this guy. You assertion is factually incorrect.

A massive failure of Homeland Security given what we know that they knew about this individual.

Well, you even claim to not even know all they knew about this individual. And obviously what they knew was not sufficient to raise flags. I'm sure they'll learn from this.

[Yonivore]

But that's exactly how you improve security. I'm sure everybody is looking at all this info through lens right now and trying to figure out what stands out as something that can be used in other cases in the future. It's a process.

Barn door, horses, some assembly required.

Is it? He was born there. He most likely still has family there. There's legitimate reasons for him to go there, stay there for a long time, and even let their wife and kids stay there with the rest of his family.

Tell me how many other Pakistani-Americans, already on a DHS watch list, engaged in a similar pattern of events in the past 10 years and, if it's more than a couple of dozen -- and all those other Pakistani-Americans aren't being surveilled -- I'll concede this was completely unforeseeable.