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Great analysis timvp! Spot on as always!
All I know is.....Spurs need to win tonight!
-How will the Spurs react to their first true must-win game of the season? I think they will react well. If there are any notable chemistry flaws, 0-2 would bring the adversity to cause the chemistry issues to bubble to the surface. But I think the chemistry of this team is fine and they will come out with one of their most energetic games of the season ... though the Spurs will need more than energy to win tonight.
-A lot has been made since Game 2 about how Tim Duncan is supposedly a liability on defense. I call BS. No one, Duncan included, can defend the Nash/Stoudemire pick-and-roll. Pointing to his defense on the pick-and-roll as evidence of him being a liability is laughable. Duncan had trouble staying with Channing Frye off of down-screens ... but how many interior-oriented pivots could defend such plays? I can't think of one off the top of my head. Duncan also had Grant Hill score on him when isolated. Again, that is not a sign of Duncan being a defensive liability -- that's a sign of the Suns taking advantage of a mismatch. Hill is supposed to get good looks when isolated against Duncan. The fact that Duncan forced him into a pair of jumpers means he defended the plays well. While it's true Duncan can do a better job on defense, labeling him as a defensive liability is unfair. The plays that worked against Duncan in Game 2 would have been difficult for Duncan even back when he was a rookie.
-The fact that this game is at home is making me question what rotation adjustments Pop needs to make. I wanted Tony Parker to start Game 2 so the Spurs could get their road split but him starting Game 3 isn't as vital. One would expect George Hill to play much better at home so keeping him in the starting lineups makes sense on that level. Perhaps start Parker and bench Richard Jefferson?
-Continuing on the previous thought, doesn't Pop have to give Matt Bonner and Roger Mason, Jr. a look in the first half tonight? I know, I vomited even writing that sentence and I can't wait for those two players to be off the team for good but Pop's hand is pretty much forced right now. The Suns are too deep to get back into this series by the Spurs running their starters into the ground. Pop has to find at least a few productive minutes from players deeper in the rotation. Both players shot much, much better at home this season. If one of them can hit a few three-pointers, that would be huge. Is it worth the risk?
-Manu Ginobili needs one of those games where he plays with an ungodly amount of energy. His energy has been sporadic since early in the Mavs series. When he wants to be, Ginobili can be an elite rebounding guard. Against this swarming Suns team, Ginobili needs to concentrate more on the glass. On offense, he has to fight his way to the basket. Phoenix will live with him shooting threes. Every time he hoists one, you can almost hear their defense breathe a sigh of relief.
-The resiliency the Suns have shown in the first two games has been amazing. (They kinda remind me of the 2003 Spurs. Both teams were deep, both teams rely more on individual talent and energy more than cohesiveness, both teams have a mix of old veterans and excitable youth, and both teams bounce right back after blowing leads.) Tonight, if the Spurs use the home crowd to start strong or make a run at some point, they have to know that any size lead can evaporate against the Suns in a matter of minutes. If the Spurs let their guard down with a lead, like they did plenty of times against the Mavs, these Suns will blow you out. The Spurs need 48 minutes of concentration, especially defensively.
-In the first two games, the Spurs offense would get unnecessarily complicated. No disrespect to the Suns but the Spurs can get good looks every time up the court if they keep it simple. Depending on who the Suns have on the court, a clear-out for Parker or a pick-and-roll with Duncan leads to a good look almost every time. The Suns do a good job of switching up the matchups and confusing the Spurs but if San Antonio can remain patient and find the mismatch, these aren't exactly the 2004 Pistons the Spurs are playing against.
-It's true that the Suns role players don't shoot as well on the road but I wouldn't dare them. Stay dedicated to taking away three-pointers, get back on transition and force Nash to do the heavy lifting.
-If the Spurs can get the win tonight, I'd think the pressure shift back to Phoenix. They know they need a split here to really put the Spurs on their heels. Win this contest and then Game 4 will decide whether or not this is a long series.
Great analysis timvp! Spot on as always!
All I know is.....Spurs need to win tonight!
I don't like the idea since Jefferson is coming from one of his best playoffs games.
What I would like Pop to do is dynamic adjustments. Start Hill, but if he has another slow start immediately subs ute by Parker. When Bonner enters the game, if he misses his 1st 2 shots or defensive assignments he should go the bench and stay there for the rest of the game - don't wait until he goes 0-6.
Last edited by PDXSpursFan; 05-07-2010 at 10:50 AM.
Duncan isn't a liability on defense. IMO Spurs would be better suited having Dice in the game guarding the pick and roll, leaving Duncan in a less vulnerable position playing weak side help defense. Which is the type of defense that has earned him All-Defensive honors every year.
Spurs defense in the first quarter against the Suns' pick and roll was the best I've ever seen it when Duncan's man was NOT setting the screen.
Dice guarding Amare in the pick and roll with Duncan on the weak side> Duncan guarding Amare in the pick and roll with Manu on the weak side.
Spurs have to pick their poison and I much rather give the Suns a slightly contested 25 footer than give Amare or Nash a clean look at point blank range.
Yeah, it would be odd to bench him right after his productive game. But then again, if you are going to start TP and Manu you need spacing. Hill spaces the court much better than RJ.
The problem is that the Suns are putting lineups on the court that either force Duncan to defend Amare or spend his time chasing his man off of screens. While Collins is in the game, Duncan can get away defending Collins while McDyess guards Amare... but Collins is only a placeholder at the beginning of each half.
If the choices are Duncan defending Amare or chasing around Frye, Hill or Dudley ... I'd rather Duncan defend Amare.
Gotta give Gentry credit because it's a smart move. He's doing a good job of taking advantage of the Suns being smaller, quicker and younger in addition to having more bodies.
And, really, I can't fault Pop. He's gone with Duncan on Amare when confronted with that situation, which is what I would have done. When the Suns were using Frye to get Duncan out of the lane, I thought switching Duncan off onto Hill could be a solution since Hill's not really a three-point shooter. Pop did just that and Hill hit a pair of jumpers.
Basically, Gentry is making good moves and Pop is responding correctly. As a Spurs fan, I can't blame anyone. If the Suns are going to continue to work their gameplan to perfection, they are going to be next to impossible to beat. The Spurs have always relied on the Suns to partially dig their own grave. Right now, that's not happening.
Good defense on Duncan
Mason Bonner - IMO it's not worth the risk to give mason some minutes but it depends on the score, if we are winning or not and by how much.
I would take the risk with Bonner though, simply because it's easier to set him up then setting up a shot for mason. And Matt can be streaky what can force Suns to watch him after he will make 2 or three in a row in 2 or three possessions.
Pick and rolls are spoiledmanu and TP really had troubles to penetrate inside. Also not many isos were played as I remeber corectly.
Agreed most with this point. The Suns, while having improved on the defensive end compared with the D'antoni era, is far from a juggernaut on that side. Being down 0-2 is not reason for panic and doing things much differently what you're used to and good at. Let the championship experience of the Big 3 and Pop guide the team.
Why are so many Spurs fans drinking the "George Hill Must Start" Koolaid?
I get what you're saying. But my point is that it seems the Suns are getting much more efficient looks when Duncan is defending Amare in the pick and roll when Spurs are going small to close out games.
I agree it's a tough situation for the Spurs to be in and Pop can't really be blamed all that much, but if McDyess guards Amare and Duncan is moved out to Hill (if Suns use Hill as the 4), I much rather put the ball in Grant Hill's hands for a semi-contested 15-19 foot jump shot instead of what transpires in the Nash/Amare pick when Spurs go small with Duncan guarding Amare.
And if Frye is in the game with Amare, I much rather have McDyess guarding Amare in the pick and roll and having Duncan on Frye playing weak/help side. I much rather Frye take a semi-contested 25 footer than Amare getting layups/dunks or getting to the line at will.
It's all about picking your poison.
I much rather take away the easy points/looks the Suns get in the lane when the Spurs go small with Duncan guarding Amare in the pick and roll.
Yeah, it's definitely a matter of picking your poison. I'd rather Duncan defend Amare than potentially getting worn out on the perimeter but I can see pros and cons each way.
Speaking of McDyess, I wonder if Pop will make the adjustment of giving him more minutes. McDyess eating Bonner's minutes wouldn't be a bad thing.
I think that the Spurs respond too. I don't necessarily agree that the chemistry is fine though. Parker is as vocal as I have ever seen him barking out things that other players have done wrong. Mason/Bonner are having 'wanna get away' moments, etc.
Duncan is no longer super human on defense anymore. That's why you see articles as you have seen about Timmy's defense. That said, I don't think that Duncan 'forcing' Grant into a couple of jumpers means that he defended him well. Grant Hill got exactly what he wanted. A wide open jump shot with Duncan a few feet away from him. Duncan can do better on defense, but it is unfair for people to expect him to guard Grant Hill or Channing Frye. If he has to, the Spurs won't win this series.
If you bench RJ, you likely fracture his very fragile ego at this moment. If you want to shake up the starting lineup, send Manu to the bench and let him wreck shop against the Suns bench.
Yep. The Spurs cannot win with a rotation of 6 players against the Suns, especially when the Suns are playing 10 players effectively. You guys have to find someone else show up to win other than the Tim, Tony, Manu, RJ, and George Hill. Players like Bonner, Mason and Blair better show up.
He needs to play like he did Game 1. Every aggressive and attack the Suns in transition.
Thanks for the compliment. This team does feel different than in the past. We'll see how different they are dealing with a team like the Spurs at home.
I don't know. The Suns P&R defense has been some of the best I have seen so far this year. Parker has been doing an ok job with it, but the Suns have really forced Manu to give up the ball on the P&R and that plays right into the Suns hands. So far the Parker/Duncan P&R has been ok to successful, and the opposite with Manu/Duncan or whomever else.
That said, the Spurs offense overall has been fine.
I always thought it weird that Popovich was always willing to let Amare go off against the Suns and still win. It went against conventional logic, but it worked. It shouldn't have, and wouldn't have, if the Suns were tougher defensively back then. Here, the Suns live and die by the P&R and/or the role players. Teams usually try to take over one of the two. The times that Portland were able to play the Suns well is when they decided to defend the P&R and the other players didn't show. However, if you do that and Richardson catches fire, you're in trouble.
As a visitor, I love the insight that you bring to this board. Kudos to you.
My only thought on Game 3 is this: If the Suns win Game 3, the series is OVER.
I would like to see more Mcdyess as well, I think he has been very good this series with his midrange jumper. I am much more comfortable with Mcdyess's midrange jumper rather than taking chances with Bonner launching open 3's.
Wow, I used to think the day I'd read this sentence would be when froze over.
Really? He's been ok. He missed two wide open jumpers early Game 1 and that killed his playing time for the game IMO. Game 2 he was much better though. Call it a wash.
Ill take my chances with Mcdyess rather than Bonner.
I would think Duncan would get more worn out hedging/recovering in the pick and roll every time down the floor on defense, rather than standing with one foot in the lane and one foot out watching McDyess hedging and recovering in the pick and roll. I could be wrong.
I agree though McDyess needs to have Bonner's minutes. I'm praying that's one adjustment Pop makes if he plans on employing small ball for a portion of the game.
Can't disagree with that point though.
One simple adjustment is to tell Richard Jefferson to stand at the corner and hill on the sideline and keep rj behind the line. Scream at him if u have to.
I'll take Grant Hill shooting 2s over Tim Duncan's outstretched hand all ing night. Saying he's a liability on defense is so ridiculous.
When any member of the Big 3 is vocal, that's a good thing. If anything, this team doesn't have enough vocal leadership.
Yeah, I have no idea why RJ has decided to kill the team's spacing. I'd almost rather have him miss open corner three-pointers than make a long two-pointer. Those two-pointers are pretty much worthless because the Spurs can get better shots from others, while the Suns have to actually worry about him hitting a few from beyond the arc could create spacing on each possession.
RJ has been cold from distance in recent months but he's been able to knock down threes at a respectable rate for years. To totally lose confidence in his three-point shot is a storyline that isn't getting enough attention.
Yeah, I thought those plays were good D by Duncan. Hill can hit that shot but it's better he attempt that jumper than get to the rim or create an open look on a three for someone else.
Yeah I agree Duncan hasn't been the liability for you guys on D, the huge liability for the Spurs' D has been at SF and C (or PF if you wanna consider Duncan a C). I'm not trying to stir anything up since we all know who used to play SF for you guys and everyone knows how disappointing Jefferson has been defensively, but he has virtually no responsibilities on offense other than finishing the shots others created. It should be him bolting back on defense to stop the fast break, and it should be him guarding J-Rich or Nash. Again, not trying to rub this in, but Bowen would be turning J-Rich into a ghost. The whole thing just seems weird, I was sure when the Spurs traded for Jefferson he'd go back to being the hard nosed defensive player he was when he was younger.
really nice analysis
go spurs go!
in the big three we trust
Maybe they can get away with it tonight, but if the spurs are going to win a road game in this series they need one of those guys to spread the floor. Either that or Manu needs to find his shot and get hot from three.
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