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Thinking about the Spurs' odds of winning the series at this point (yes, you read that correctly) we first note that no NBA team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit.
Nonetheless, my calculation would be as follows:
If one team beats another three times in a row, I would conservatively assign a 75% chance for the dominant team to win any random future game against the weaker team.
Then, if the losing team must win four games in a row against that winning team, that would mean a 1 in 4 chance X 4 games.
That's a 1 in 256 chance to win the series.
Factor in the Suns chokiness against the Spurs and the Spurs' corresponding clutchness and maybe we could reduce it to 1 in 200.
As lefty singer-songwriter Todd Snyder croons, "A slim chance is still a chance."
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http://www.whowins.com/features/comeback.html
Down 3-0 and came back to win teams are the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs, the 1975 New York Islanders, & the 2004 Boston Red Sox.
In the NBA the 1951 NY Knicks and the 1994 DEN Nuggets forced game 7's after being down 3-0.
If there ever was a time to do something that's never been done...THIS COULD BE IT!
Well we were the first 7th seeded team to beat a 2nd seeded team in the first round of the playoffs so you never know! If anyone can do it, the Spurs can! Go Spurs Go!
Thinking about the Spurs' odds of winning the series at this point (yes, you read that correctly) we first note that no NBA team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit.
Nonetheless, my calculation would be as follows:
If one team beats another three times in a row, I would conservatively assign a 75% chance for the dominant team to win any random future game against the weaker team.
Then, if the losing team must win four games in a row against that winning team, that would mean a 1 in 4 chance X 4 games.
That's a 1 in 256 chance to win the series.
Factor in the Suns chokiness against the Spurs and the Spurs' corresponding clutchness and maybe we could reduce it to 1 in 200.
As lefty singer-songwriter Todd Snyder croons, "A slim chance is still a chance."
So you think the Suns have a 75% chance to win every game, regardless of if its home or away for the rest of the series?
Thats ridiculous.
I would give the Suns a 35% percent chance for game four.
A 55% chance for game five.
A 40% chance for game six.
And a 60% chance for game seven.
Thus, the spurs odds of winning all four games would be .65*.45*.6*.4= 7.02%
You think your team only has a 55% chance to win a home close-out game against a team they're up 3-0 on?
So you think the Suns have a 75% chance to win every game, regardless of if its home or away for the rest of the series?
Thats ridiculous.
I would give the Suns a 35% percent chance for game four.
A 55% chance for game five.
A 40% chance for game six.
And a 60% chance for game seven.
Thus, the spurs odds of winning all four games would be .65*.45*.6*.4= 7.02%
Man, you been a Suns' fan too long.
And as far as assigning a 75% winning chance to the Suns for all remaining games, that's because there are two home games and two away games for each -- it washes out.
Now, if the Spurs win tomorrow, the analysis changes -- the chances of the lower seeded team coming back from 1-3 is less than that of the team with home court -- the higher seeded team gets two home games and only one away.
(In fact, I believe all of the NBA teams that have come back from 1-3 may have had home court advantage in the series.)
I'm at the point where I'm happy if the Suns beat the Lakers...
, just send it to a game 6 just to get them scared.
The Spurs are a better team that the Suns. They were 7 point favorites at home, while the Suns were only favored by 4 at home.
Usually when teams are down 3-0, it is a lobsided series talent wise. Teh Spurs need to win game 4 and go from there. Frankly, the Spurs winning 4 games in a row is not a big deal, they do it all the time.
Galileo, I've been waiting for your re ed ass to show up.
I would switch the % for games 5 and 7. 60% for the Suns to win game 5 (less pressure with more chances to come) and 55% to win game 7 (more pressure not to let the Spurs make history coming back from 0-3).
So you think the Suns have a 75% chance to win every game, regardless of if its home or away for the rest of the series?
Thats ridiculous.
I would give the Suns a 35% percent chance for game four.
A 55% chance for game five.
A 40% chance for game six.
And a 60% chance for game seven.
Thus, the spurs odds of winning all four games would be .65*.45*.6*.4= 7.02%
I'd prefer the Suns sweep so that they get more rest than the Lakers. Don't want it to go 7, lose, and the Suns have no chance against a rested Lakers team. Gentry, Nash and Hill (did you see them stop themselves from celebrating?) are nice. Only Amare is (how do I put it kindly) dumb, but I don't have the dislike for him that I do for Kobe, Fisher and Phil Jackson.
Last edited by rmt; 05-08-2010 at 10:40 PM.
I'd be thrilled if the spurs win the game tomorrow
I already have the spurs -mavs series ready to be watched over and over.
Just put on the best show possible and let it ride. I dont want to get swept. I want to show at least a little determination and heart before the end.
I got my tickets for Game 5 in Phoenix today. I want to watch a game, I want to see it all left on the court, and hopefully, that results in a victory. It's not like they haven't had chances to win these games. If you look at the Utah-LAL series, those games had closer scores but it's still 3-0 higher seed over lower seed.
If ever there was a time to make a huge statement...this is it!
To steal a line from Curt Schilling,"Why not us?"
Hold down the fort for Game 5! (And somebody get Manu a bloody sock.)
Blazers also forced a Game 7 against the Mavs in 2003 after being down 0-3....but lost.
We might beat the Suns 3 games in a row but there's no way in we are beating them 4 in a row.
regardless of whether i think the spurs can still win the series or not, i think they have a great chance of winning game 4. i think the suns will have lost some focus, the spurs will pounce to show a glimmer of hope. i wouldn't expect it to go much further than that though. i'm always hopeful though
The odds suck for the Spurs, I'll still be rootin for them!
But this guy says:
G!S!G! Believe!!!!!!!!!!!!
odds are against us.
I'm glad that the Spurs are not in he'll.
Mark the following words:
"If we push the series 3-2, then we will win game 7 !!! "
Explanation:
I feel tonight we will win. But, the important game is Game 5, because we will play 1-3, and as visitors, so thats the crucial and brutal game. If we win game 5, the momentum s to Spurs tremendously and the inspiration will win Game 6 in San Antonio. Suns morale will be wayyyyyyyy DOWN for Game 7, no matter if in Phoenix.
I believe.
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