Playoffs cautionary tale for free-spending teams

[edgar]

Playoffs cautionary tale for free-spending teams
Will teams make same mistake with Johnson that Spurs, Celtics did in ’09?

By Ira Winderman
NBCSports.com

Through the first month of the playoffs, Joe Johnson is being offered as the cautionary tale of this summer's impending free-agent-free-for-all.

The Hawks guard hardly has cast himself as a max-level prospect, yet nonetheless will get his max money.

But to truly appreciate what comes next, and the impact of what comes next, is to look back at the damage of overspending that already has taken a profound toll in these playoffs.

A year ago, three contenders looking to take the next step in the postseason attempted to cash in.

By week's end, all could be cashed out, left only with salary remnants that make the equation that much more difficult moving forward.

The Spurs, for example, made a bold, and, in hindsight, misguided, move for Richard Jefferson, taking on the remaining $29.2 million on the forward's contract. Now, $15 million still is owed for next season (and, no, there is not a chance that the suddenly mid-level-worthy Jefferson will invoke his opt out by June 30).

Jefferson never fit in because Jefferson has never been anything unless point guard Jason Kidd has been at his side. Without point guard Tony Parker available full time, and with George Hill learning on the job, Jefferson was left to figure out the game on his own. He couldn't. Not after so many years of selfish ball. The Spurs did not prove to be the expected panacea.

While some, instead, have lamented the three-year, $14.5 million deal given to playoff no-show Antonio McDyess, the difference is the third year on McDyess' Spurs deal is only partially guaranteed. Take away Jefferson's money for 2010-11, and the Spurs could have space for a player.

Then there are the Hawks, Johnson's Hawks, a team that has defined second-round failure these past two seasons.

While the drama is whether Johnson will walk (he will), less appreciated is what Atlanta did last summer, when it tried to hold this all together, thinking it was primed for its next step.

Now? Now Mike Bibby has two years remaining on the three-year, $18 million contract he re-upped with last summer.

Clearly the Hawks appreciated they were at a crossroads, which is why Bibby's contract has a most unusual configuration, paying him $6.2 million for this past season, $5.6 million for next season, and then again $6.2 million for 2011-12.

Why? Because should the Hawks lose Johnson to free agency, it would maximize the Hawks' cap space this summer.

Yet considering how little Bibby has provided this postseason, one can only imagine how little will be left in 2011-12. In fact, reduced to its simplest form: Is there a single point guard in the Eastern Conference that Bibby can keep in front of him?

Certainly not Jameer Nelson, as we've seen this past week. And certainly not Brandon Jennings, as we saw for the two weeks before that.

As with the Spurs and Jefferson, the Hawks were living in the moment last summer, when they re-upped with Bibby. It was all about 2009-10. With a little bit more forethought, such money might have been better spent on the promise of a Ramon Sessions, for example.

And then there is Rasheed Wallace, and the three-year, $19 million deal he signed with the Celtics last summer.

If ever there was a player worthy of a one-year tryout, it was Wallace, who had fallen significantly off his game in recent years and essentially was cast aside last summer by the Pistons. Instead, Boston not only offered him three years, but also gave him an opt out for 2011-12, in case he actually managed to recapture his previous form.

Again, moving toward Wallace was not a mistake by itself. He certainly arrived with championship pedigree. But it was the years, committing two additional seasons to a player whose commitment seeming had wavered. The venerable Celtics had enough concerns about an aging roster.

Now what Wallace appears to do best is foul. A lot. It has gotten to the point where the best praise Doc Rivers can conjure is how Wallace has done an efficient job of protecting the paint with his length, when Glen Davis clearly has proven the more productive option.

There is, of course, nothing inherently wrong with living in the moment. The Spurs needed to retool after last season's first-round ouster, as an aging roster continued to age. The Hawks thought they were coming together, prepared to at least compete in a second round. And the Celtics, with Kevin Garnett moving closer to his former form, figured one last run with Ray Allen still under contract would be worthwhile.

Only now, the Spurs need to find a bridge to the future, with Hill, DeJuan Blair, and, perhaps, Tiago Splitter. It's almost as if Jefferson is in the way, a player who simply has not fit the system. As a one-year experiment, there was little downside. But now there is no escape.

In Atlanta, the Hawks may return next season resembling something far different, with coach Mike Woodson possibly to be gone from the bench, Johnson almost a lock to be gone from the locker room.

In each case, don't be surprised if the Spurs and the Hawks try to package those regrettable additional years as part of their revivals, with suitors for Tony Parker possibly also having to take Jefferson from the Spurs, and with those looking to sign-and-trade for Johnson possibly also being asked to take Bibby from the Hawks.

As for Wallace, in retrospect Leon Powe might have proven to be a lower-risk investment last summer. At least there would have been no-long term commitment due there.

It is one thing to take on a veteran on a one-year flier, as the Cavaliers did with Shaquille O'Neal, the Pacers did with Earl Watson, the Raptors did with Amir Johnson, the Celtics did with Marquis Daniels, or even the regrettable move the Wizards made with their 2009 lottery pick for Randy Foye and Mike Miller. At the stroke of July 1, all those mistakes can be erased.

When those moves don't work, there is no lingering stench. You simply try something else.

But Jefferson remains the gift that keeps on not giving in San Antonio. Bibby will continue to age exponentially in front of the Hawks' very eyes. And if Boston doesn't advance deeper this year than last year, Wallace will remain a presence the Celtics well might wish came with a mute button.

The lesson? When teams go to great lengths just because they have the financially wherewithal, sometimes the law of diminishing returns exacts a considerable toll.

Limited risk is one thing. Jefferson, Bibby and Wallace all were worth the gambles. But, now, there also is no escape.

[spursfaninla]

I thought this article was half right at first, but I changed my mind; it is full wrong about the spurs at least.

Yes, jefferson did not fit well. But his contract expires at the end of next year; by the deadline, he is a luxury tax contract saver for somebody. I think his contract is worth at least as much as what we traded him for, probably more.

So it would be STUPID to trade tony to get rid of him, when his contract will be much easier to move in Februrary.

And that is hardly "no escape." The other guys who have longer contracts, maybe.

Second, the Spurs were not going to have enough $ to sign anybody, even if we just let the expiring contracts that were around at the time just evaporate. The reason? We would still have to pay for splitter, and if you are under the tax and dont' have a full roster, they charge you for those spaces. I don't think we would have had money to buy a player as good as jefferson, and we would have a problem getting splitter then.

[iManu]

Man. What's Tony plus ? 27 mil, or something? Too bad we can't get Lebron. Bosh + Turkoglu, I imagine, is kind of close. Gilbert Arenas + their 1st round picks for the next 20 years? Man, 25 million dollars and nothing to spend it on in the Summer of Love. Maybe we can pick up Wally Szczerbiak, Darius Miles, and Raef LaFrenz.

Man, the possibilities with the Hornets are ENDLESS, but NO WAY the Hornets are willing to make the Spurs the best team in the world for the next 5 years while they play with their .

[iManu]

If Tim had CP3 and West, no chance he would retire after the easy Ring and 75 win season. I could play SF at a fat 5 foot nothing and we'd still win 50 games.

[Agloco]

Man. What's Tony plus ? 27 mil, or something? Too bad we can't get Lebron. Bosh + Turkoglu, I imagine, is kind of close. Gilbert Arenas + their 1st round picks for the next 20 years? Man, 25 million dollars and nothing to spend it on in the Summer of Love. Maybe we can pick up Wally Szczerbiak, Darius Miles, and Raef LaFrenz.

Man, the possibilities with the Hornets are ENDLESS, but NO WAY the Hornets are willing to make the Spurs the best team in the world for the next 5 years while they play with their .

If Tim had CP3 and West, no chance he would retire after the easy Ring and 75 win season. I could play SF at a fat 5 foot nothing and we'd still win 50 games.

Yes, their contracts together next year are in the 26-27 million range. And yes the Hornets would at least entertain the offer since George Shinn and crew have expressed an interest in rebuilding. It's not CP3 and West that you'd want coming over though, it's CP3 and Okafor.

Even then, the Spurs would still need to find a way to get Battier out of Houston, or get a player with a similar skill set to man the perimeter.

The lineup in my head looks like this:

Starters: Duncan/Okafor/CP3/Battier/Hill

Reserves: Splitter/Blair/Manu/Hairston/McDyess/Jerrels (or veteran PG)/ Raja Bell (or random swingman)

Far fetched? Considering that the only marquee player the Spurs would need to acquire is CP3, perhaps not. The Battier situation I don't know much about though. It may not be feasible to get him with what the Spurs have left. Also, the acquisition of Okafor helps to offset any potential problems should Splitter not materialize.

[ShoogarBear]

McDyess "playoff no-show"?

Pretty lazy and poorly researched writing.

Although it is true that RJ forever more will be held up as one of the big-expectation busts in NBA history.

[da_suns_fan]

No mention of Shawn Marion who has many more years than Jefferson and is pretty much untradeable?

You could do this EVERY year. GMs dont want to lose out on acquiring a player and end up paying above market value.

Im a little worried with Stoudemire's deal coming up this summer.

[Supergirl]

He lost me at "McDyess the playoff no show" -- clearly he doesn't know jack about the Spurs. Dice is the main reason we made it past the Mavs. His d on Dirk was crucial. We didn't bring him in to score.

[ducks]

playoffs cautionary tale for free-spending teams
will teams make same mistake with johnson that spurs, celtics did in ’09?

by ira winderman
nbcsports.com

link!

[J_Paco]

No mention of Shawn Marion who has many more years than Jefferson and is pretty much untradeable?

You could do this EVERY year. GMs dont want to lose out on acquiring a player and end up paying above market value.

Im a little worried with Stoudemire's deal coming up this summer.

If I were you I'd be worried, too. Chicago or Miami are going to throw big offers Amar'e's way, so will Sarver be willing to go over the luxury tax to keep him around? Nash won't be around forever to spoon feed Amar'e 5-10 points from the pick-and-roll.

Plus, there is the fact that Amar'e really only started playing hard after the trade deadline. So, who is to say he won't start coasting and being selfish again when he signs a big new contract.

[Udokafan05]

McDyess "playoff no-show"?

Pretty lazy and poorly researched writing.

Although it is true that RJ forever more will be held up as one of the big-expectation busts in NBA history.

Yeah, Dice played well in the playoffs, and didnt get his chances in the 4th quarters. He hustled more then anyone against Dallas.

[ducks]

If I were you I'd be worried, too. Chicago or Miami are going to throw big offers Amar'e's way, so will Sarver be willing to go over the luxury tax to keep him around? Nash won't be around forever to spoon feed Amar'e 5-10 points from the pick-and-roll.

Plus, there is the fact that Amar'e really only started playing hard after the trade deadline. So, who is to say he won't start coasting and being selfish again when he signs a big new contract.

also frye is a fa
someone will open their money for his shooting

[Mr Bones]

This article doesn't mentioned how the Spurs might've lucked into something with Jefferson. 2011 will be a big free agent year-- not as big as 2010, but still very significant. There will be plenty of teams wanting to trade for a huge expiring contract like Jefferson's.

[crc21209]

McDyess "playoff no-show"?

Pretty lazy and poorly researched writing.

Although it is true that RJ forever more will be held up as one of the big-expectation busts in NBA history.

That's when I stopped reading...

[TDMVPDPOY]

what u guys think of rudy gay?

[ChumpDumper]

Aren't the Celtics still in the playoffs?

[DBMethos]

LMAO @ Dice = "playoff no-show"

[edgar]

what u guys think of rudy gay?

Im interested to see what happens with him