Brasil: As always, they enter the world cup strong favorites. Roster is disgustingly deep at the back and wings (see: Daniel Alvez probably a reserve), and at the attack as well. Fabiano destroys with the NT, Robinho is still a star if he can play less selfish, and Nilmar is a great young player that a lot may not know about. Grafite is also a nice surprise in place of fat Adriano lol. Midfield is shaky, have had troubles creating scoring opportunities if Kaka isn't playing magic ball. That's why I'm disapointed Ronaldinho isn't going, he has the experience, the talent, the knowledge, and could very well at least be insurance for what Kaka brings to the table. Dunga will be sure to remind the team what happened in '06, and they will stay humble this time, and are out for redemption. Very likely to reach the finals
Spain:
As good as brasil, if not better then brasil. Ridiculous ability to create and put the ball in the net. So many players that are so good as well, they are an offensive juggernaut. You're right to say they've choked before, but they have had experience as a group winning the last Euro, and I wouldn't read too much into the loss to USA in the Conf. Cup. I like leaving Raul out, and Xavi is the star of this team imo, such a leader on the pitch, good defender, and can create as well. Also see them reaching the finals, and the brackets would have them up against brasil, which would be anyone's match
Also, a few thoughts on other teams, in no particular order:
Argentina:
Could certainly make some noise, but they are so inconsistent. Their coach is garbage, and are very susceptible to desperation tactics and failure when playing under pressure. Talented individually, but lack any sort of strong team chemistry. Not like it takes an expert to say this, but they'll go where Messi can take them, but Messi is still very unproven in the international stage. This could be his coming out party, but I expect semis at best, most likely quarters.
Germany:
Will make noise, as they always do. So much tradition and history here, and their team has pride, which anyone that watches can tell you is a huge part of football. Very experienced coaching staff, as well as players like Klose, Lahm, and Ballack. Powerhouse as always, and as OP said, very strong defensively, but can also put the ball in the net with ease. With that said, I wouldn't put them in the Brasil/Spain tier, they're with the likes of England and Argentina
England:
lulz Becks. Sucks for him, I wanted him in. Ummm, where are we with this team. Gotta start with how amazing Rooney is I suppose. Being a Man U fan, I know this guy's game inside out, and I can tell you he's gonna make some noise. England has always had heart, and it's no different this year, and another team that could challenge spain and brasil for the le, perhaps more so then anyone else. They're full of stars, but stars with class, "tim duncan"-like players. Also, biggest collection of WAGs ever, it's a beauty.
Ivory Coast:
Best african team in my opinion, at least when talking position-to-position talent. Drogba is a king, but they also guys like Toure, Eboue and Kolo; quality players with experience and determination. Very difficult group stage, but Portugal has shown plenty of weaknesses and they could easily take second place. They've got the talent and the team play, and it's up to their effort and matchups in the knockout to see how far they can go. I expect R of 16 or Quarters, but wouldn't be surprised too much at a semis appearance
France:
ya'll, I'm sick and tired of getting eliminated by you guys lol (86: France, 94: won, 98: France, 02: won, 06: France). Aint going nowhere, serves them right for the gay ass hand goal. Oh, and I want Ribery in Man U... bad
Netherlands:
The main team you forgot up there. Strong up front, know how to play, but they're also known for fading out when it matters most. With that said, they killed at the qualifiers (17 - 2 in goals), did well at the start of the Euro, and they're looking to improve here. With that said, the bracket gods have them running into brasil in the quarters, which doesn't do much for their chances. This is a team I fear.
Portugal:
Can't see them going anywhere. A complete one man show much like the OP put it, except their one-man hasn't exactly shown much with the NT as of late, at least not enough. You can make the claim they have solid talent elsewhere, but I won't buy it, their chemistry is horrible, and they had a ty qualifiers. Too much of the wrong personality here
Italy:
Not at all favorites. Bad Euro, and not much talent has shown up since '06, they've only gotten worse. Good coaching base and solid players for sure, but I just don't see it with this team, they havn't done anything since winning their 4th le. To real star, no real threats, and their one shinning star is Buffon, although I disagree with him being the best goalie in the cup (no homerism: Cesar has been amazing). Good defense, will probably walk on top of their group, but will bust at the quarters. Book it