Ranking the Small Forwards Draft Prospects

[benefactor]

I dont know, I will have to wait for the predraft measurements to make my decesion on this kid. I see a player who is probably really 6'5 (hairston is really 6'4) who just doesnt seem to do anything very well. I am really hoping the spurs are looking for a shooter instead of an athletic SF who rebounds well since we already have hairston or Gee who can feel that void.

I'm not sure where you are getting that he does not do anything very well. I lined out quite a few things above.

I agree with you on the measurements. If he is not a true 6'6 then there might be some reservations.

[yavozerb]

Uhhh he defends and attacks the rim really well....

thats my point, so does hairston....

[benefactor]

thats my point, so does hairston....

There is a reason Hairston was picked at 48 and Pondexter will go in the 20's. Beyond a few nice finishes at the rim Hairston has proven to be pretty limited offensively so far. Even after a couple of seasons his ball handling is still pretty shaky. His rebounding...which was pedestrian at Oregon has not really improved either. After two seasons he is still nothing more than a situational defender who occasionally finish at the rim. Forgive me...he does light it up in the D-League though.

Pondexter handles the ball better, is a better jump shooter, is a better shot creator and is far and away a better rebounder. Except for the questions surrounding his 3pt shot he is NBA role player ready on both ends of the court.

[mountainballer]

I agree with you on the measurements. If he is not a true 6'6 then there might be some reservations.

agree. we should know in a week. personally I do think he is closer to "true" 6'6'' (or 6'7'' in shoes) and a 7' wingspan, than the mentioned 6'5''. (or let's call it Hairston size)

Jon Brockman - 2009
height without shoes: 6' 7"
height with shoes: 6' 8"

[mountainballer]

I agree with you on the measurements. If he is not a true 6'6 then there might be some reservations.

agree. we should know in a week. personally I do think he is closer to "true" 6'6'' (or 6'7'' in shoes) and a 7' wingspan, than the mentioned 6'5''. (or let's call it Hairston size)

Jon Brockman - 2009
height without shoes: 6' 7"
height with shoes: 6' 8"

[benefactor]

Good picture comparison.

In looking at video and pictures, I have always thought he looked longer than Hairston too. We'll know for sure soon.

[ChuckD]

agree about Henry. if he is there, you take him. some mocks have his stock falling, but I think the chance he falls to #20 is lower than 1%. he is the hands down best shooter in this draft and so many of the lottery teams are desperate for shooting. he will go top ten. (my guess is Clippers at #8) no chance he falls lower than Grizzlies at #12.

Hayward will very likely also be out of our area. he has the most potential and highest upside of all SFs outside the lottery bound players. one team will take the risk.

I don't know, man. He was going at #6 or #7 earlier, but now he seems to be in the middle of the first round. It's all well and good to want shooting, but a lot of lotto teams will take a chance on a different kid either panning out or completely busting, rather than a one dimensional shooter.

His stock is definitely bearish.

[JonNOKC]

this draft is very intereting because of the depth - while the lottery guys aren't as talented as some drafts - I think you will see more contributors from the 15th pick on than in quite some time (maybe not next year, but 3 years from now I think people will look at 2010 as damn good draft year) - if no one drops to the Spurs that they feel is ready to contribute next year I think then unless they really like the upside of someone on board at 20 you may see a trade perhaps picking up extra picks in this draft or rights. The Spurs may not want guaranteed contract that comes with 1st round pick and there is lot of depth - the problem with the SFs in this draft is while there are many talented guys they all have at least one glaring weakness in their game that makes it very unlikely they could contribute right away.

[AFBlue]

Here's my top 3. Like AFBlue, I've left out players that I feel will not be there when the Spurs draft(no, I don't think Henry will be there). In looking at the prospects, I have ranked them according to NBA readiness and ability to contribute in the most areas.

1. Quincy Pondexter

There is a ton to like about this kid. He is a good ball handler that does not turn the ball over, he is a good rebounder on both ends and despite popular opinion he can shoot. Something that I think keeps getting overlooked in his shooting is PPS on his jumpers, which is 0.94. As DX has mentioned that's pretty damn good for someone who shot a lot of contested jumpers. There is no reason to believe it will get worse when he is playing off the Big 3 and shooting while wide open. He also moves very well without the ball and can finish when attacking the rim, drawing contact and sinking free throws at a 83% clip(Mind you, these are things the Spurs expected out of RJ). As many have said, the jury is still out on his ability from distance due to lack of sample size. This is something he will need to show NBA teams he can do during workouts this summer.

Defensively, he is the most NBA ready of the group and this is the biggest reason he tops my wish list. His effort, fundamentals and awareness on rotations are something the Spurs really need on the perimeter...even moreso than 3pt shooting IMO. The Suns destroying the Spurs in the playoffs had just as much...if not more to do with poor defensive rotations as it had to do with lack of 3pt shooting.

2. Paul George

There is no debate here...this kid can shoot. He has a nice looking shot and can drain the 3 ball. Though he is not that big bulk-wise, he is very athletic and has improved greatly at finishing around the rim, getting to the line and sinking his free throws when he gets there(90%!). He's a good defensive rebounder and a good passer...both things that are important to the Spurs. He can be considered the official "oozing with upside" pick of this draft when picking at this point in the first round.

There are a few red flags with him though that suggest a lack of focus. He turns the ball over at a higher rate than he gets assists. He also has the tools to be a good defender but doesn't put in the effort that is necessary. His energy level at times also leaves much to be desired. He can get steals due to his length, but he will need to work on dialing in on the defensive end if he plans to stay on the floor with the Spurs or any other team(well, maybe except the Warriors). All in all, I don't think he will be much more than a shooter off the bench next season as he will need time to develop the finer points of his game.

3. Gordon Hayward

Hayward has all the tools to be the perfect role player...and as DX mentioned, he should excel in that arena instead of having to be the man like he was at Butler. He has great length at 6'8 and can shoot from anywhere. I think that much of the decline in his 3pt shooting has to do with him being the offensive focus for Butler. He is also a great defensive rebounder for a SF. To put it in perspective, Dejuan Blair averaged 6.8 defensive rebounds per game in his last season at Pitt and Hayward averaged 6.3 last year almost the same amount of minutes. That's pretty good company.

He's a very intelligent player that plays within his limits...as his athleticism is questionable. This also makes him hard to project defensively. However, this does not mean he will automatically be a bad defender, as he shows good effort and makes good decisions on the defensive end. One only has to look as far as JJ Re to see that there are players out there that can become good team defenders and passable man defenders at the NBA level when they work hard, play smart and stay within themselves.

I really like this kid. He's very close to George on my list.


As far as the rest go, I don't feel they are worth guaranteed money at the 20th pick(with the exception of Henry if he falls). Robinson doesn't do any one thing well except be athletic. Anderson can shoot, but doesn't have much upside beyond that and will get destroyed on defense by wings at the next level. Ebanks has character issues and Babbit is a lesser version Hayward.

Solid in-depth post.

I want the Spurs to see what you see in Pondexter...a capable, willing defender and efficient offensive player. Does he fit the best in this system relative to other potential draftees? No. But, this kid's hustle and work ethic lead me to believe he may be the best of the group down the road.

But they may not have to make a choice between them, because at this point it looks like Pondexter may be the only one left on the draft board when the Spurs pick!

[wildbill2u]

Why nothing about Vlad Dasic this year? He's had another year of Euro ball under his belt and as a mobile 6'10 who can defend the perimeter he might be in the mix.

From last years DX: The best part about Dasic’s game surprisingly might be his defense. He seems to have no problem guarding wing players from what we’ve seen this year, getting low in a fundamental stance, moving his feet extremely well and doing a great job containing penetration and contesting shots with his length. He’s doing a solid job on both SFs and PFs this season, playing with good intensity, and sees production in the stat-sheet as well—as he currently leads the Adriatic League in steals per game.

[Bruno]

Why nothing about Vlad Dasic this year? He's had another year of Euro ball under his belt and as a mobile 6'10 who can defend the perimeter he might be in the mix.

Dasic has sucked this year and has had an horrible at ude. He has even been waived from his team. I don't have a clue why he is still on DX mock draft.

[DesignatedT]

1.Henry
2.George
3.Anderson
4.Babbitt

for me at the moment

possibility that none of those will be there...

[Gino2882]

1.Henry
2.George
3.Anderson
4.Babbitt

for me at the moment

possibility that none of those will be there...

Very much agree with those 4 players. Also Damian James from Texas and Patterson from Kentucky would be very tough to pass up.

[SenorSpur]

In thinking about the possible SFs available and which direction the Spurs should go, I'm struck with an interesting question:

Which skill is the hardest for a young player to perfect at the next level? Developing into a consistent 3-point shooter or learning how to defend?

[Blackjack]

If you've got the tools and want-to to play defense, you can play defense; the same cannot be said for shooting.

[lurker23]

A few measurements from this group:

Ebanks: 6' 7" w/o shoes, 6' 8.25" w/shoes, 7' 0.25" wingspan, 8' 11.5" standing reach

Robinson: 6' 6.5" w/o shoes, 6' 7.75" w/shoes, 7' 0" wingspan, 8' 11.5" standing reach

George: 6' 7.76" w/o shoes, 6' 8.75" w/ shoes, 6' 11.25" wingspan, 8' 11" standing reach

Henry: 6' 5.25" w/o shoes, 6' 6.5" w/shoes, 6' 11.25" wingspan, 8' 9" standing reach


Some body fat winners:

Wesley Johnson: 4.6%
Henry: 4.7%
George: 5.0%


http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-...t=&pos=&sort=7

[wildbill2u]

one has to wonder too what the plans for james gist are and how this would effect our pick

Gist and James White are touring Europe together this summer.

[wildbill2u]

After looking at Velesy (sp?) video I was impressed. Very mobile for a big man and can he fly!

If we go to our famous draft and stash a Euro gambit again, he might be my pick over Seraphin. Like to see more of both of them.

[Bruno]

After looking at Velesy (sp?) video I was impressed. Very mobile for a big man and can he fly!

If we go to our famous draft and stash a Euro gambit again, he might be my pick over Seraphin. Like to see more of both of them.

Vesely has decided not to enter in the draft this year.

[Bruno]

Among the realistic candidates for #20 (Damion James, James Anderson, Gordon Hayward, Stanley Robinson, Paul George, Luke Babbitt, Quincy Pondexter and Devin Ebanks), draft measurements doesn't allow to really draw conclusions:

- Pondexter was out because of a finger injury.

- James Anderson is the shortest but he more a SG than a SF. At 6'6" and without a great wingspan or great athleticism, he is maybe too small to play SF.

- The other 6 players have damn close measurements. Their height with shoes is between 6'7.75" and 6'8.75". Hayward is the one with the smallest wingspan and reach.

[Mel_13]

Measurements link:

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements/


Edit: Posted at least twice already in other threads.

[Chieflion]

If we can't get George, I think Babbitt would be perfect. Damn those measurements are scary, and he is quite a polished player.

The reason why it is so scary is that,

John Wall: 30.0, 39.0, -N-a, 10.84, 3.14 (No-Step Vert, Max Vert, Bench Press, Lane Agility, 3/4 Sprint)
Luke Babbitt: 29.5, 37.5, 15, 10.98, 3.4 (No-Step Vert, Max Vert, Bench Press, Lane Agility, 3/4 Sprint)

John Wall is definitely the most athletic player in the draft, no question. Although measurements cannot tell the entire story, like in-game explosiveness, but it shows that Babbitt is deceptively athletic as a forward and has some size and length. They also started doing hand length and width in which Babbitt also measured quite well in.

Luke Babbitt: 8.5, 10.0 (Hand Length, Hand Width)

In comparision, let us see the size of the hands of the other small forwards/shooting guards.

Al-Farouq Aminu: 9.5, 9.5 (Hand Length, Hand Width)
Devin Ebanks: 8.3, 9.0 (Hand Length, Hand Width)
Paul George: 8.5, 9.0 (Hand Length, Hand Width)
Xavier Henry: 8.8, 10.0 (Hand Length, Hand Width)
Damion James: 9.3, 8.5 (Hand Length, Hand Width)
Wesley Johnson: 9.0, 9.5 (Hand Length, Hand Width)
Lance Stephenson: 9.0, 10.3 (Hand Length, Hand Width)
Evan Turner: 8.8, 9.5 (Hand Length, Hand Width)
Gordon Hayward: 8.5, 9.3 (Hand Length, Hand Width)

Again, in comparision to these guys, Babbitt has bigger hands than most and a way better shooting touch than most of the players, which is a very good positive.

Cross posting.

[Bruno]

When you look at mock drafts, Henry, Hayward, George and Babbitt all have a high probability of being drafted before #20.

Top SFs at Spurs could be: Damion James, Stanley Robinson, Devin Ebanks and Quincy Pondexter. Who would you pick among these 4?

[yavozerb]

When you look at mock drafts, Henry, Hayward, George and Babbitt all have a high probability of being drafted before #20.

Top SFs at Spurs could be: Damion James, Stanley Robinson, Devin Ebanks and Quincy Pondexter. Who would you pick among these 4?

Hopefully your wrong and one of those guys will fall, but out of the bottom 4 I think I would choose James..Out of the bottom 4 I think he would be the best fit for a possible 3/4 sf, most athletic, him and pondexter are about equal at the offensive end, above average rebounder, and his arm length is pretty good at 7ft to become a legit defender. I also believe that if the top 4 are off the board you may see the spurs take a big with this pick.

[Gino2882]

Damion James would be a good pick if the likes of George and Henry are gone. James plays with a ridiculous motor, can defend several spots, and would slide right into a backup role and play meaningful minutes.