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there is never going to be a complete, just look at the hex-core and octo core processor amd just came out with, 85% of the people wont ever need any of that power, in a year we will have 32gb of ram on systems.
IMHO this technology is nowhere near where it will be in the near future. Just because the phone has all the parts of any other computer doesn't make it a mature technology. Even dumb phones have CPUs, memory, and almost any other part that would be in any desktop computer. Just less sophisticated.
Hand held devices still have serious issues with processing power, battery life, and functionality, in that I am not sure we understand just what these mobile devices are truly capable of yet. I don't think we have even discovered all the uses these devices will do 5 years from now (assuming creativity is not stifled by lack of proper compe ion).
I think we are 3 or 4 generations away from a truly complete smartphone system, from fair pricing and market penetration, to functionality.
there is never going to be a complete, just look at the hex-core and octo core processor amd just came out with, 85% of the people wont ever need any of that power, in a year we will have 32gb of ram on systems.
Yeah, that phone will be AWESOME!
Remind me of the specs on it, again? Right now, it's second to vaporware.
What aspect of technology won't make massive leaps in 3 to 4 generations? Everything you've said could be applied to nearly every arm of technology that presently exists.
I thought I was pretty explicit, but I will recap:
Battery life: These devices are nothing without their electricity. Battery technology is at a virtual stand-still when compared to processor technology. That isn't to say that there aren't creative ways of getting around this: Smaller CPU manufacturing processes, dynamic power use, and more efficient programming and programming languages can minimize power use and get the most out of a battery, but you are still limited by physics. Batteries are over 50% of the weight of these devices and have limitations on number of recharge cycles and plain milliampereage available. Only being able to do what I want on a given device for but a few hours without a recharge just limits the experience and the functionality.
Processing Power: These devices are spectacular compared to PDAs of yore: Gigahertz processors, gigabytes of memory, but the reality is, compared to the software available, it seems these things are still quite underpowered. The ability to actually do any sort of hard core processing isn't available. Some devices are just starting to allow for factory recommended mul asking. (Yeah, I know about jailbreaking, but why do I have to void my warranty just to be able to mul ask?)
Software: The app store from Apple and Google are great. They have expanded the functionality of the PDA-Phone by quite a bit. But to say all the great ideas/software is already out there, is a bit arrogant and premature. I think that the software is the most mature part of the current smartphone, but I have no doubt the next 5 years will see some killer apps that will push the smartphone from the realm of luxury item and time saver to absolute necessity for everyone, not just for those with a budget. Which brings me to my next point.
Connectivity: While AT&T and Verizon are battling it out on the ad wars, only Sprint right now has 4g, and only in certain places. Who cares? Well, the fact is, despite there being a de facto 3 companies in the race (maybe 1 or 2 more) the prices are still to high for the average consumer, not so much for the device itself as for the data-plan. This wouldn't even be such an issue, if all 3 carriers weren't bottlecapping the amount you could download to 5 gigs! The only exception to this ridiculously low limit (in the age of Youtube and Skype) is Sprint's 4G network, which is truly unlimited, when you get get the 4G in the 1st place. I see a world, in the future, where most of these devices will not only replace our landlines for phone service, as they have, but will also serve as viable alternatives to other broadband internet sources, like Comcast, Time Warner, and AT&T DSL. It can happen, and create more compe ion, and more functionality to us users (wireless data wherever a cell tower is). But it isn't here yet, and because of the lack of true compe ion between carriers (except from the bas child Sprint) I don't know if we will get what we want for a few more years.
Interoperability: Blackberry has good business apps, but is still lagging in general application use, and doesn't have anything even close to the Droid store, let alone the iPhone store. iPhones don't have the call quality or the internetworkability (CDMA vs GMA vs IDEN etc) that Blackberry and Android does, and Android is still playing catch-up with Apple's App store. A device that can more robustly deliver to all market segments is a few generations away IMHO.
Call Quality: The fact is, these devices, as released now, are PDA 1st, phone 2nd. That is fine for some of us, but for people like myself, and most of the people I deal with, good old fashioned call quality is still very important. Dropped calls, bad speakers/microphones, and bersome Bluetooth style connections are just not where they should be on these phones. If I have to carry a second phone around just so that I can listen to them and understand them, than I think there is a real problem. The whole idea of consolidating a media player with a PDA with a phone is so that I only have less things to carry.
Durability: This is actually better than I had expected, but still isn't where it could be for full market penetration. Only Panasonic toughbook stuff is truly robust enough for many uses, like construction and hospital use. That isn't to say everyone needs that kind of durability, but for some level of convergence of this kind of durability mentality might be a few generations away.
In conclusion, while the smartphone revolution is nice, and it has made great strides, it is still not in its glory days, let alone golden years. I can see it maturing in a few years, unless the market takes a major shakeup, but IMHO it is not a mature technology, not by a long shot. I find it amusing that some people seem to think we have reached the pinnacle of the technology, particularly since the US has always lagged every other industrialized country as far as mobile technology (see Korea and Japan, and pretty much all of Europe) when we are not even up to other countries' standards in terms of the complete smartphone experience.
I'll rebut you as I feel able to do so.
Okay, this is a point against the iPhone. The thing sucked battery down. But even so, I was usually able to get through a whole day without having to recharge it. What's the problem with having to plug it in every night? Not that big of an issue, especially when you can pack a small power cord along with you for extended trips.
The Evo 4G is purported to have even better battery life. I guess I don't see what the big deal is when people want phones that last 5 days or 2 weeks on one charge, considering it takes 5 seconds to plug it in before I sleep every night.
Excusing the fact that I'm a gamer -- how many applications that computers are running in this era require or even recommend dual or quad-core processors? Okay, so you can't run Adobe Photoshop on a phone... why would you want to? It doesn't seem like a situation I would ever come across. Many programs are actually being built lighter these days to allow for generalization across mobile platforms. The Android and Apple OS built into their respective phones are a sterling example of how capable modern devices have become. You can do almost anything on a good smartphone now that you can on a computer, and the Evo 4G is more powerful than the top of the line gaming desktop I bought in 2000. That says a lot about the tech, to say nothing of a phone's ability to record video (and now have video calls), take photos, run SSH, patch into a mainframe computer, etc.Processing Power: These devices are spectacular compared to PDAs of yore: Gigahertz processors, gigabytes of memory, but the reality is, compared to the software available, it seems these things are still quite underpowered. The ability to actually do any sort of hard core processing isn't available. Some devices are just starting to allow for factory recommended mul asking. (Yeah, I know about jailbreaking, but why do I have to void my warranty just to be able to mul ask?)
In 5-10 years, we will look at the very best, most powerful desktops of the day as severely underpowered, so again, I think you're applying something that's true for all technology to cell phones exclusively.
Who ever said that? And who ever said this about ANY sector of software, or even engineering? I expect to see massive changes in the next 3-4 years with almost all computers as far as the interactive UI goes, so again, to apply this to phones alone is highly puzzling to me.Software: The app store from Apple and Google are great. They have expanded the functionality of the PDA-Phone by quite a bit. But to say all the great ideas/software is already out there, is a bit arrogant and premature.
Considering that probably half of the cell phones sold in America today are smart phones, I would have to disagree that they are a luxury item. Everyone is using them, and in many places they are replacing laptops.I think that the software is the most mature part of the current smartphone, but I have no doubt the next 5 years will see some killer apps that will push the smartphone from the realm of luxury item
I don't see why something that hasn't been embraced fully by the public means that it's an infant technology.and time saver to absolute necessity for everyone, not just for those with a budget. Which brings me to my next point.
What? I've downloaded well over 5 gigs in one month via my iPhone and was never penalized or charged on my phone bill. There is absolutely NO way Sprint will cap a 4G service at 5 gigs while advertising the ability to download HD video. It's just not going to happen, and I find the fact that you list this as such an "accepted" fact highly dubious. I have also heard nothing from people with Droids indicating a bandwidth cap.Connectivity: While AT&T and Verizon are battling it out on the ad wars, only Sprint right now has 4g, and only in certain places. Who cares? Well, the fact is, despite there being a de facto 3 companies in the race (maybe 1 or 2 more) the prices are still to high for the average consumer, not so much for the device itself as for the data-plan. This wouldn't even be such an issue, if all 3 carriers weren't bottlecapping the amount you could download to 5 gigs!
It's an interesting thought that you list the ability to take your phone anywhere for an internet signal and at the same time criticize them for being unable to handle the multi-tasking power demanded by today's computer users. If the cell phones cannot perform as you feel they should, why should companies implement vastly expensive technology to feed them data at rates they cannot support?The only exception to this ridiculously low limit (in the age of Youtube and Skype) is Sprint's 4G network, which is truly unlimited, when you get get the 4G in the 1st place. I see a world, in the future, where most of these devices will not only replace our landlines for phone service, as they have, but will also serve as viable alternatives to other broadband internet sources, like Comcast, Time Warner, and AT&T DSL. It can happen, and create more compe ion, and more functionality to us users (wireless data wherever a cell tower is). But it isn't here yet, and because of the lack of true compe ion between carriers (except from the bas child Sprint) I don't know if we will get what we want for a few more years.
Have you noticed the screen size on a Blackberry? There's a reason it's more limited to businesses. Apple designed the app store to be massively accessible -- something RIM completely missed the boat on.Interoperability: Blackberry has good business apps, but is still lagging in general application use, and doesn't have anything even close to the Droid store, let alone the iPhone store.
This is another example where the technology in 5 years will blow anything we presently see away, and another 5 years after that will be the same thing. There is no magical line that you seem to be suggesting that separates "advanced" from "rudimentary", because all technology becomes laughably inadequate in the lens of time.iPhones don't have the call quality or the internetworkability (CDMA vs GMA vs IDEN etc) that Blackberry and Android does, and Android is still playing catch-up with Apple's App store. A device that can more robustly deliver to all market segments is a few generations away IMHO.
These issues are totally not unique to smartphones, and have more to do with poor carrier service than lacking technology, IMO.Call Quality: The fact is, these devices, as released now, are PDA 1st, phone 2nd. That is fine for some of us, but for people like myself, and most of the people I deal with, good old fashioned call quality is still very important. Dropped calls, bad speakers/microphones, and bersome Bluetooth style connections are just not where they should be on these phones. If I have to carry a second phone around just so that I can listen to them and understand them, than I think there is a real problem. The whole idea of consolidating a media player with a PDA with a phone is so that I only have less things to carry.
First you talk about the market in general, now you're highly specializing the device toward particular individuals. It honestly seems like you're grasping for straws to be critical of. I don't need my phone to be rugged, because I don't treat it like crap, and I don't plan to drop it over a waterfall anytime soon. You say that smartphones haven't proliferated the market enough -- well, regular cell phones are by NO means tanks, and they seem to be popular enough without the added all-weather protection.Durability: This is actually better than I had expected, but still isn't where it could be for full market penetration. Only Panasonic toughbook stuff is truly robust enough for many uses, like construction and hospital use. That isn't to say everyone needs that kind of durability, but for some level of convergence of this kind of durability mentality might be a few generations away.
Have we had a glory age of technology yet? Yes, we're in the information age, but it's been going on as long as the internet has been widely accepted as a data-transfer medium for the average person, and it doesn't seem to be ending anytime soon. Cell phones and smart phones are just a further extension of that.In conclusion, while the smartphone revolution is nice, and it has made great strides, it is still not in its glory days, let alone golden years. I can see it maturing in a few years, unless the market takes a major shakeup, but IMHO it is not a mature technology, not by a long shot.
Who in their right mind has said we've hit the pinnacle of technology? I'm really curious as to where you're pulling some of these ideas from. Technology improves upon itself improves upon itself improves upon itself. Until we hit a major road block, limited by resources, why would there ever be a conceivable "peak" of technology? It's not going to suddenly start devolving tomorrow. Barring some kind of historical disaster, man-made or otherwise, we aren't going to wake up in 15 years and pine for the days when we had "gigs of RAM" and "terabytes of hard drive". Those terms might be so surpassed in 15 years that they aren't even in the common computer vernacular anymore.I find it amusing that some people seem to think we have reached the pinnacle of the technology, particularly since the US has always lagged every other industrialized country as far as mobile technology (see Korea and Japan, and pretty much all of Europe) when we are not even up to other countries' standards in terms of the complete smartphone experience.
Suffice to say, I find your view on this subject extremely confounding.
Last edited by Cry Havoc; 05-14-2010 at 04:19 PM.
So, in a nuts , you basically are saying that you won't buy one now because there will be better ones later down the road...
Which is kinda silly, considering that applies to pretty much everything in tech.
I understand people that don't want to be 'early adopters', but smartphones are well into their 3rd or 4th gen already.
Now, if you don't like any of the offerings then that's pretty understandable. But at a current cell contract going for about 2 years, and being that you can get fairly cheap prices on these devices with a new contract, I don't really see the rationale for not taking one out for a spin.
I can tell you that my iPhone really changed the way I use phones. I'm sure there will be better things down the road. I already expect to retire it this year when Apple announces their new unit in about two months and I'm due for renewing my contract. If you do your homework and also keep in mind what the longevity of these toys are, then there's really nothing to hesitate about.
Was able to play with a demo......... AMAZING!!! Can't wait to get this phone
where at?
Cool, I can't wait until someone I know gets it, so I can play with it.
I don't understand why someone would bring up the 4th gen Iphone in this conversation. Its specs dont sniff the jock of the Evo's. I mean, it doesn't even have 4g connectivity.
Also, what is At&t's marketing campaign going to rely on when this phone comes out? Talk/surf will no longer be exclusively theirs.
It will probably look a lot like VZW campaign's against AT&T. I assume WiMax coverage will be pretty limited for a while. Things are going to get a lot more interesting in about a year when Verizon finally rolls out their LTE network.
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Last edited by GINNNNNNNNNNNNOBILI; 05-18-2010 at 01:13 AM.
A friend of mine who works in the biz has one he showed me the other day. This is a slick ass phone. Not quite ready to give up my iPhones - but if the iPhone 4G can't live up to this, I might consider a jump.
I wonder if people will confuse the 4g in the new iphone to mean it has that connectivity.
Apple hasn't even officially named it as such yet, so it's speculation right now.
http://www.physorg.com/news193546817.html
(AP) -- HTC's Evo 4G phone is fast, powerful and fun to use - as long as your heart isn't set on tapping into the speedier new network it was designed for.
This has already been discussed. 4G is obviously not available in every major city yet. But if it IS in your area, it's a big step up compared to 3G.
At least with the Evo you get the OPTION of 4G, and Sprint will be expanding it to roughly 15 major cities in the US by the end of 2010. The iPhone doesn't even have the option of 4G, or at least nothing has been announced.
Just posting review links, but the only consistent comment about 4G is how spotty it is in every area it's supposed to cover:
http://www.engadget.com/2010/05/19/htc-evo-4g-review/
Of course, the EVO's 4G access isn't just about the Hotspot app (though that's arguably its single most valuable function). The phone's WiMAX radio can be controlled independently of the CDMA / EV-DO, Bluetooth, and WiFi radios -- which will certainly be a boon for customers in 3G-only markets and for anyone looking to max out battery life -- but we tested the EVO in Chicago, where Sprint's (and Clearwire's) 4G signal is alive and well.
When we got a signal, it was amazing. , it was straight-up epic -- full, desktop-caliber websites and apps like the Market loaded with honest-to-goodness WiFi-like speed, and we were able to make calls over CDMA at the same time (this was a feature that Sprint said was on the bubble back at CTIA, so we're happy to see it made it in). Of course, we imagine this is partially a function of the fact that Sprint's 4G network is practically a ghost town; Clearwire's most recent quarterly report clocked less than a million subscribers nationally, and we're sure we'll see some performance degradation as insanely hot hardware like the EVO starts infiltrating Sprint stores and power users get hip to the knowledge that WiMAX is the bee's knees.
The other issue we had was... well, put simply, staying covered. Chicago is an urban canyon in every sense of the word, and Clearwire operates in a high spectrum slot that doesn't share the building penetration characteristics of 700 and 850MHz networks. In other words, we found ourselves getting four bars of 4G walking down the street, then ducking into a coffee shop and dropping to just one or even no bars at all.That said, this is truly one of the best smartphones ever made, and even spotty 4G -- a reality of a young technology that's going to take years to properly build out -- probably won't do much to hamper your enjoyment of this thing. It's reasonable to assume that phones like the EVO will ultimately come to every carrier over the next few months... but hey, if you jumped ship for Sprint to pick up this monster, we wouldn't be able to blame you.
Reserved my Evo 4G from Best Buy last night! Cannot wait for this phone.
I have a Nokia N900 right now but daaamn this phone is making me think twice
Well, you convinced me, CH. Reserved mine today at Radio Shack. My T-Mobile contract isn't actually up until July 8, but I don't really mind waiting a month or so longer for this beast.
You won't regret it.
ive been pretty loyal to black berry but it this phone is mine june 4th
One more day, CH. Ya ready?
Ya sittin outside the local Best Buy in your "Team HTC" shirt?
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