RICHARD JEFFERSON opts OUT!!

[ohmwrecker]

this roster in 2 years is NOT a great one. we have to start getting rid of the fat and Richard Jefferson proved he's full of it last season.

I'm just going to go ahead and assume that Popovich is a greater judge of talent than you. Now, based on that assumption, what do we know?
1. The Spurs are trying to win another championship in the Tim Duncan era.
2. There is no current player on the roster or who could reasonably be had at the LLE that is a better option than RJ.
3. Popovich is personally working with RJ this off season to improve his "corporate knowledge".
4. There have been other former Spurs who struggled in their first year and came back to contribute in big ways.
5. RJ, potentially, is one of these guys.

[Brazil]

Rough numbers.

For many years, the Spurs spent right up to the lux tax level and did all they could to avoid the tax. That first dollar over the tax is the most expensive because you forgo the luxury tax distribution check that goes to teams that stay below the tax. This check is for several million dollars.

So with RJ at 15M and Splitter for the MLE the Spurs were going to be way over the tax threshold again this season. A reasonable guess is that they would be 10M over the tax line.

So how much does that add to payroll compared to spending right up to, but not over, the tax line?

10M in additional salary
10M in tax
5M in tax distribution lost

If RJ accepts a back loaded deal that allows the Spurs to sign him and Splitter while staying under the tax, the Spurs have reduced their payroll expenses for 2010-11 by 25M. A large chunk of that money is then paid out to RJ in years 2, 3, and perhaps year 4 of his new contract.

Both sides win by sharing money saved by avoiding the tax and by collecting the tax distribution.

this is what I call a solid contribution. Thx Mel !

[lurker23]

Not much I can say that hasn't already been said. Pretty bad news for the Spurs on the face of it, but some of the potential outcomes can be quite favorable:

1. Best outcome for Spurs is probably a S&T with RJ. Even if they get nothing else but a trade exception, at some point this season they can have their pick of the crop of SFs on cash-strapped or cap-conscious teams.

2a. The second best option is resigning RJ for a lesser amount but more years. As poor a fit as RJ seemed at times last year, it's hard to top him talent-wise when you're talking about a 4th or 5th option. If he can somehow find a way to focus on his three-point shooting and defense, he could be a nice option at the 3 for a few more years, considering he's only 30. I think a good contract that could benefit both sides would be in the realm of 3 years, $25 million, or 4 years, $33 million.

2b. However, much more than the numbers I quoted above for his contract is probably too much; unless he really improves, $10 million per year is overpaying for RJ in the Spurs system. Admittedly more palatable than $15 million, but still.

3. The absolute worst case scenario is the one many of us feared when we read this headline. RJ signs elsewhere without a S&T, the Spurs are up the creek without a paddle (or, more accurately, without a SF and without any money to spend). While I agree that someone who's primary focus is defense or 3-point shooting might be a better fit in the system, odds are the Spurs will sign a vet with the LLE who will end up starting, but should probably be a backup on a championship caliber team.

[ohmwrecker]

Not much I can say that hasn't already been said.

You summed it up very well. Nice job.

[Mel_13]

How much is the MLE + LLE exactly? isn't it approx. $7M? I only meant he "gets it" compared to other "respected" sports journalist who called this "Christmas in July" for the Spurs.

Yeah, I understood what you meant. In general, he gets it.

I just don't like smack talkers at all, especially those who don't have the expertise to remotely justify the arrogance.

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

How much is the MLE + LLE exactly? isn't it approx. $7M? I only meant he "gets it" compared to other "respected" sports journalist who called this "Christmas in July" for the Spurs.

I thought combined they were about $8M. The MLE is around $5.8M and the LLE $2M. Aside from that error, I don't get why he included Anderson in the mix, his rookie contract doesn't have any affect on the MLE/LLE.

[ohmwrecker]

I thought combined they were about $8M. The MLE is around $5.8M and the LLE $2M. Aside from that error, I don't get why he included Anderson in the mix, his rookie contract doesn't have any affect on the MLE/LLE.

Already been over it and this is not really the point of the link that was originally posted, but hey, let's nit-pick the only article that I've seen that even brings up the notion that this potentially might not be such a great deal for the Spurs.

[Agloco]

I generally agree that defensive length is extremely helpful, but if some posters here think it's impossible to play a 6'6" guy at SF and have any success, how do they justify a 6' 6-1/2" guy playing center or PF for the Spurs without the same criticism? And if that's the case, why not trade Blair now while his stock is high, for a 6'10" SF? What about Blair/Hairston for Ilyasova?

Because Blairs stature belies his production. He's perfectly capable of grabbing 10 boards on any given night which is not something you can readily deduce if you just look at his height. You need to take a closer look at his skillset, and herein lies the problem I have with the Hairston, Anderson, Gee, etc sugestions at SF. Our problem is with a height and/or weight challenged SF trying to guard some of the best out there. Their skill sets have yet to be proven at the highest level for the duration of a season. Blair is a known quan y (yes, even his defense has vastly improved over the course of one season), those others are far from it.

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

Already been over it and this is not really the point of the link that was originally posted, but hey, let's nit-pick the only article that I've seen that even brings up the notion that this potentially might not be such a great deal for the Spurs.

Sure thang.

[E-RockWill]

Yeah, I understood what you meant. In general, he gets it.

I just don't like smack talkers at all, especially those who don't have the expertise to remotely justify the arrogance.

Ohhhhhhh snap!

Face-palm.....

[DynastySpurs210]

Well since RJ opted out who do we Chase?

[Agloco]

Well since RJ opted out who do we Chase?

Splitter. And according to various posters, we're stacked at SF anyway........you know, with Hairston, Anderson, Gee, and crew.

[PDXSpursFan]

If we don't resign RJ it means that in opening night we'll heard the Spurs announcer: "....6'5 Foward from Kentucky Keith Bogaaaannnsss!!!!!"

[Agloco]

Rough numbers.

For many years, the Spurs spent right up to the lux tax level and did all they could to avoid the tax. That first dollar over the tax is the most expensive because you forgo the luxury tax distribution check that goes to teams that stay below the tax. This check is for several million dollars.

So with RJ at 15M and Splitter for the MLE the Spurs were going to be way over the tax threshold again this season. A reasonable guess is that they would be 10M over the tax line.

So how much does that add to payroll compared to spending right up to, but not over, the tax line?

10M in additional salary
10M in tax
5M in tax distribution lost

If RJ accepts a back loaded deal that allows the Spurs to sign him and Splitter while staying under the tax, the Spurs have reduced their payroll expenses for 2010-11 by 25M. A large chunk of that money is then paid out to RJ in years 2, 3, and perhaps year 4 of his new contract.

Both sides win by sharing money saved by avoiding the tax and by collecting the tax distribution.

Can't believe I missed this. Another solid post from Mr. Mel.

Oh, those numbers don't include the tax distribution for future years right? Just this year?

[Mel_13]

Oh, those numbers don't include the tax distribution for future years right? Just this year?

Just this year. Future years will be under the terms of a new CBA, the luxury tax rules could change in major ways.

[rascal]

Not much I can say that hasn't already been said. Pretty bad news for the Spurs on the face of it, but some of the potential outcomes can be quite favorable:

1. Best outcome for Spurs is probably a S&T with RJ. Even if they get nothing else but a trade exception, at some point this season they can have their pick of the crop of SFs on cash-strapped or cap-conscious teams.

2a. The second best option is resigning RJ for a lesser amount but more years. As poor a fit as RJ seemed at times last year, it's hard to top him talent-wise when you're talking about a 4th or 5th option. If he can somehow find a way to focus on his three-point shooting and defense, he could be a nice option at the 3 for a few more years, considering he's only 30. I think a good contract that could benefit both sides would be in the realm of 3 years, $25 million, or 4 years, $33 million.

2b. However, much more than the numbers I quoted above for his contract is probably too much; unless he really improves, $10 million per year is overpaying for RJ in the Spurs system. Admittedly more palatable than $15 million, but still.

3. The absolute worst case scenario is the one many of us feared when we read this headline. RJ signs elsewhere without a S&T, the Spurs are up the creek without a paddle (or, more accurately, without a SF and without any money to spend). While I agree that someone who's primary focus is defense or 3-point shooting might be a better fit in the system, odds are the Spurs will sign a vet with the LLE who will end up starting, but should probably be a backup on a championship caliber team.

Option 3 would be the worst. The spurs trying to win with a backup quality starter at the 3.

[Creation88]

Knicks and Clippers willing to throw $ at a SF. hopefully it's Jefferson.

[Seventyniner]

It looks like both sides win and lose. RJ wins in that he'll get more guaranteed money, but loses because he forgoes a chance at a decent contract after this year (which probably won't happen due to the new CBA). The Spurs win big in that they don't have to pay the tax this year, but lose in future flexibility. I can understand RJ's point of view, now.

[Kori Ellis]

http://twitter.com/Al_Iannazzone/status/17504369519

RJ to the Knicks?

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

http://twitter.com/Al_Iannazzone/status/17504369519

RJ to the Knicks?

They couldn't get Parker so they settle for option 2 .

[Seventyniner]

http://twitter.com/Al_Iannazzone/status/17504369519

RJ to the Knicks?

As long as they'll take him in a sign-and-trade giving us a big trade exception, yes please.

[HarlemHeat37]

Knicks fans hate Jefferson, their reaction will be priceless if he signs there..

[timvp]

I don't get how RJ is a good fit for D'Antoni's system. D'Antoni likes players who can shoot, dribble and pass. RJ is below average in each category.

[Cane]

I don't get how RJ is a good fit for D'Antoni's system. D'Antoni likes players who can shoot, dribble and pass. RJ is below average in each category.

Yea unless they can get a premier passer I don't think RJ will work but he can run and finish around the rim. Might remind Mike of Shawn Marion. RJ's defense should fit right in as well

[EricB]

Rick Bucher.