MYSA: Jefferson's return could be imminent

[ChuckD]

You dont give up 15 mil in one year to work for 3 years making 24 mil.

You do if you're stupid and misread the FA market badly.

[Mel_13]

I say worry about that later.

Ok, you worry about it later.

We're bored and our team has no cap space, our MLE is spoken for, and you can only have so much conversation about candidates for the LLE. We're gonna keep talking about it.

[vednam]

Ok, you worry about it later.

We're bored and our team has no cap space, our MLE is spoken for, and you can only have so much conversation about candidates for the LLE. We're gonna keep talking about it.

Haha. Alright then. I appreciate the candor.

[tmtcsc]

This fella stole Toy Story 3:

[DPG21920]

I have been saying rj to nj made very little sense on the surface. Now I just want to know why the spurs could possibly want rj long term when that does not make sense on the surface. Wasn't rj's expiring contract a factor in trading for him, even before we found out he was a terrible fit? Now, with the benefit of knowing he does not fit AND knowing he does not want to be here, the spurs want a LTD for him? Ok.

[Pauleta14]

It doesn"t "really" matters how much they give him, as long as they do a S&T...

[Mel_13]

I have been saying rj to nj made very little sense on the surface. Now I just want to know why the spurs could possibly want rj long term when that does not make sense on the surface. Wasn't rj's expiring contract a factor in trading for him, even before we found out he was a terrible fit? Now, with the benefit of knowing he does not fit AND knowing he does not want to be here, the spurs want a LTD for him? Ok.

Two basic scenarios:

1. The Spurs had an arrangement for RJ to opt out in return for a newer, longer deal that starts at a number much lower than 15M. In that case, the Spurs have to honor their end of the deal.

2. RJ opted out on his own, with no deal in place with Spurs. In that case, the Spurs should be very patient and see if a market develops for RJ. No need to put any offer on the table right now except one that is very favorable to the team.

[DPG21920]

Two basic scenarios:

1. The Spurs had an arrangement for RJ to opt out in return for a newer, longer deal that starts at a number much lower than 15M. In that case, the Spurs have to honor their end of the deal.

2. RJ opted out on his own, with no deal in place with Spurs. In that case, the Spurs should be very patient and see if a market develops for RJ. No need to put any offer on the table right now except one that is very favorable to the team.

I understand the scenarios, my point is option one does not pass the logic test bc of what I outlined.

Option two passes the first test, but then go back to my point; why would sa, who partially valued the timing of his original contract expiring and know he does not fit, want him back at all? Especially knowing he does not want to be here (by all accounts).

They are willing to somewhat mortgage their future to save money now?

[Mel_13]

I understand the scenarios, my point is option one does not pass the logic test bc of what I outlined.

Option two passes the first test, but then go back to my point; why would sa, who partially valued the timing of his original contract expiring and know he does not fit, want him back at all? Especially knowing he does not want to be here (by all accounts).

They are willing to somewhat mortgage their future to save money now?

With each hour that passes without a legit report of a new deal, it seems less and less likely that there was a gentleman's agreement between the Spurs and RJ.

So, RJ probably opted out on his own.

Given that, my question to you is:

Is there a price at which you see an RJ return as good for the Spurs, or would you just prefer to see him walk?

[DPG21920]

With each hour that passes without a legit report of a new deal, it seems less and less likely that there was a gentleman's agreement between the Spurs and RJ.

So, RJ probably opted out on his own.

Given that, my question to you is:

Is there a price at which you see an RJ return as good for the Spurs, or would you just prefer to see him walk?

The only way I want RJ back is on a 1 or 2 year deal. That's not happening.

[Mel_13]

The only way I want RJ back is on a 1 or 2 year deal. That's not happening.

Fair enough. That's a reasonable point of view, IMO.

[DPG21920]

What are your thoughts on the logic of this, Mel? Am I way off base in thinking rj for 3-4 more years makes little sense for the spurs?

[Ginnoobbllee]

My guess is, there must have been some deal in place for Jefferson to opt out.

Something along the lines of:

We can either pay the league the money for the luxury tax, or we can pay you the luxury tax money, if you agree to a longer term deal with less money up front. We can both benefit from this. What do you say?

How much over the luxury tax limit were the Spurs with Jefferson's $15 million salary? Not a fan of Jefferson, but they were stuck with the $15mill + luxury tax bill anyway. Might as well get something for the $$.

[Mel_13]

What are your thoughts on the logic of this, Mel? Am I way off base in thinking rj for 3-4 more years makes little sense for the spurs?

No, I see your point.

Let me put it this way. I'm certain that the Spurs are a better team in 2010-11 with Tony than they would be with anything they could get back in a trade. To me the margin between keeping Tony and trading Tony is quite large, perhaps the difference between a borderline contender and a borderline lottery team.

I'm pretty sure that the Spurs are better with RJ than with whatever is available for the LLE (or Hairston/Gee/Anderson). The margin, IMO, is much smaller than in the Tony comparison. So, I wouldn't shed a tear if RJ walked and wouldn't call someone with your POV unreasonable.

[DPG21920]

I understand that logic as well and that makes some financial sense. But at that point then it is a sunk cost and why mortgage your future just to get a little more of something don't want? I cannot believe that the spurs and rj had a deal in place.

With how FA is going, it is clear to me that RJ & his agent saw the FA climate and thought they could cash in. It looks like they will probably be correct.

[DPG21920]

No, I see your point.

Let me put it this way. I'm certain that the Spurs are a better team in 2010-11 with Tony than they would be with anything they could get back in a trade. To me the margin between keeping Tony and trading Tony is quite large, perhaps the difference between a borderline contender and a borderline lottery team.

I'm pretty sure that the Spurs are better with RJ than with whatever is available for the LLE (or Hairston/Gee/Anderson). The margin, IMO, is much smaller than in the Tony comparison. So, I wouldn't shed a tear if RJ walked and wouldn't call someone with your POV unreasonable.

That is something I have touched on in the "talent argument". Spurs could not survive a TP or Manu departure in talent from a contender stand point. However, they likely aren't contenders anyways if they get Tiago and keep RJ, so why at all mortgage your future by inking RJ long-term?

Especially when there is a possibility to replace his impact with some of the younger guys and by using the LLE? Spurs can survive RJ walking for nothing IMO, even if it means taking a little hit.

[Blackjack]

Jefferson's return could be imminent (if he's not a total re and decides to pass up on the opportunity to get extremely well compensated as teams strike out in free-agency and feel the pressure to come away with something to appease fans -- to some degree -- for their tanking).

[Mel_13]

RJ banking on there being one GM or owner dumb enough to give him a deal better than the MLE. I keep thinking of Bonzi Wells turning down that 38M deal and then making less than 5M total for the rest of his NBA career.

[lurker23]

RJ banking on there being one GM or owner dumb enough to give him a deal better than the MLE. I keep thinking of Bonzi Wells turning down that 38M deal and then making less than 5M total for the rest of his NBA career.

When RJ opted out, I also felt that the Bonzi Wells scenario was a possibility. The more and more I watch this free agency period unfold, the more I think that won't happen.

At this point, my prediction is that someone will give RJ 4 years, $40 million. If/when that happens, there are two things I hope:

1. That it won't be the Spurs signing his paychecks.

2. That somehow the Spurs find a way to turn this into a sign and trade, so they have some way to fill the SF void.

[Seventyniner]

When RJ opted out, I also felt that the Bonzi Wells scenario was a possibility. The more and more I watch this free agency period unfold, the more I think that won't happen.

At this point, my prediction is that someone will give RJ 4 years, $40 million. If/when that happens, there are two things I hope:

1. That it won't be the Spurs signing his paychecks.

2. That somehow the Spurs find a way to turn this into a sign and trade, so they have some way to fill the SF void.

I agree with #2, a sign-and-trade seems the best option at this point, unless RJ really strikes out and will accept 3 years/$20M or so. With the crazy contracts given out so far (gee, there's a pattern here...), your prediction will likely come true. A big, fat TE, as timvp puts it, would be gold.

[Whisky Dog]

What am I missing here? What does this guy do to deserve 10 mil a year, or even 2 mil? He doesn't rebound, doesn't play defense worth a , can't shoot and is afraid to shoot the 3, and plays extremely passive. How is that going to get anything done? Wouldn't a guy who either defends or shoots really well at a much cheaper price be a better option because you're at least getting something? Once Bowen left and TD slowed down the only guy who really brings fire and physicality is Manu, we need that tough nosed at ude, not a questionably gay, unquestionably soft choker making 10 mil a year

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I understand the scenarios, my point is option one does not pass the logic test bc of what I outlined.

Option two passes the first test, but then go back to my point; why would sa, who partially valued the timing of his original contract expiring and know he does not fit, want him back at all? Especially knowing he does not want to be here (by all accounts).

They are willing to somewhat mortgage their future to save money now?

You act like they are making this decision in a vacuum. They don't have the money to go get a starting caliber small forward.

If they are serious about trying to win another ring before Tim hangs 'em up, they are smart enough to realize that Hairston/Gee/Anderson at the small forward spot isn't going to get it done.

The likely reality is that Splitter is going to get much if not all of the MLE. That leaves them with in essence the LLE to find a replacement SF if they were to let Jefferson go.

You aren't going to find a starting caliber SF for a championship team with the LLE.

[timvp]

Many of this year's actions are being driven by 2011, of course. Decisions ranging from Amare Stoudemire's long-expected opt out to Richard Jefferson's surprising leap into the free-agent pool were made with the idea that it will be better to lock up a long-term deal under the current collective bargaining agreement than take your chances with the one coming next year, which could feature shorter lengths, smaller raises and perhaps a harder cap. The Spurs were as stunned as anyone that Jefferson walked away from the $15 million remaining on the last year of his contract on the heels of his disappointing first season in San Antonio. He figures he can make it up, and the Spurs figure he must have some team in mind that's prepared to give it to him, even if he'll make less money immediately. ("He traded a steak for 10 Big Macs" is the way it was described to me.)

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/column...eAgency-100702

If Adande is right and the Spurs were surprised by RJ's decision, this could get very interesting.

[Mel_13]

At this point, my prediction is that someone will give RJ 4 years, $40 million.

See, that makes sense when you compare RJ to some of the players that have already received crazy contracts.

For one player, though, its all about finding one team that wants him, not negotiating comparables. For a contract that size, RJ needs a team with sufficient cap space to sign him.

I've done this elsewhere, but look at the teams that still have enough cap space:

Miami(Wade, Bosh, RJ?)
Chicago (Deng)
NY (Gallinari)
NJ (40M for RJ on a team that isn't ready to contend soon?)
Sacramento (doesn't fit with moves of the past two seasons)
Washington (dump Butler to sign RJ?)
Clippers (drafted Aminu)

I don't see a team that s s out big bucks for RJ. Which team do you see opening their checkbook for him?

[Mel_13]

If Adande is right and the Spurs were surprised by RJ's decision, this could get very interesting.

It makes sense. If a deal was in place, we should have heard about by now. No need for either side to keep it quiet.