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right now, on paper, i don't think they have what it takes to win more than 70 games... but it'll be close.
Morey on Bosh: If he forms a triumvirate with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in Miami, the Rockets believe the team won't have enough supporting talent to support a championship team. The Rockets believe such a pairing would produce a 45-win team.
Do you think Morey was right that the Heat do not have what it takes to win more than 45 wins?
right now, on paper, i don't think they have what it takes to win more than 70 games... but it'll be close.
With their contract numbers coming out and them still having around 9M in cap space, I think that number will be easily eclipsed. I don't think anyone was expecting them to leave that much money on the table.
Their roster will be somewhat bare and they will probably only have a legit 8 man rotation, but if they won that many games last year with a bunch of scrubs, I think they pass that mark this year.
lol. I would bet the ranch that they win more than 45 games.
There is another precedent and that is the Boston Celtics with the pairing of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. Their roster was somewhat depleted too but produced a huge number of wins.
Morey has built a lottery team. He surely has a lot of knowledge about 45-wins teams.
I wouldn't bet against Morey though. If I were opposing teams, I would just pack the paint and dare the Heat to make outside shots. Also their second unit would absolutely suck.
lol touche'
this is stupid man
look at the nash suns under dantoni, theres no point in havin a full roster if ur coach only plays a strict 6-7 man player rotation
so as far miami is concern, watever is left will fill that starting for them and rest would be dleagues, ring chasers or veterans on the cheap...they will up the team just to meet the quota doesnt mean they play all 15
Also, who cares? If you are a team, you do what Miami just did. You get the best players you can and worry about the rest later.
More seriously, Miami still has some cap space and I guess they will get Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem with it. Add their huge 3 and Chalmers, and they still have 6 good players. It makes them as deep as Lakers.
The rest of the roster could be filled with some active bodies like Joel Anthony or Jarvis Varnado, some old vets like Raja Bell or Jason Williams and Miami end up with a damn good teams.
Their huge 3 taking pay cuts helps them a lot to build a great team.
LeBron with 11 random D-Leaguers can win 50 regular season games. Morey needs to put down the pipe.
Morey needs to run the numbers on his team and get Scola re-signed before he can start worrying about what Miami is doing...
Morey's genius rests on the fact that he went to MIT, and Peter Holt didn't want to pay the luxury tax for Luis Scola, but rather, Richard Jefferson.
LeBron's already taken scrubs to the Finals and had back to back 60+ wins. Wade's taken scrubs to the playoffs this past year even though they were in full Lebron sweepstakes mode. Both of those guys turned a bunch of scrubs into a force defensively. Bosh almost got the Raptors to the playoffs but someone broke his face towards the end of the season. Its an insult to the idea of basketball IQ that these guys would barely have a .500 season and they've already got experience playing together.
Plus Pat Riley is looking like the best suit that ever worked in the NBA since they're likely to sign Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem who are damn good roleplayers.
I'd rather have whoever they get at the minimum than Bonner for 4 mil
I'd be very surprised if they don't win 60 at least.
Anyways, this is a good example of the limitations of SABRmetrics when applied to basketball.
Another is that Matt Bonner is worth fifteen million US dollars based on his "PER."
I thought Dennis Lindsey was in charge on the Rockets during the Scola debacle...
You mean plus/minus. He's a very average player based on PER.
But I do get your point...
r u guys ing kidding me???
they got 2 SUPERSTARS and 1 ALL STAR for sakes
they going to dominate
He had a higher "PER" than Rashard Lewis and Udonis Haslem last season.You mean plus/minus. He's a very average player based on PER.
But I do get your point...
Yeah, but the actual value was about 15.3 IIRC. On the PER scale, 15 is exactly the league average.
All analysts project 60+ wins. See below.
"All of that makes projecting a record for the Heat a little trickier than adding up the team's WARP totals from last season. Doing so, however, is a scary proposition. James and Wade combined for 45.4 Wins Above Replacement last season, while Bosh added 12.4 more and Anthony, Chalmers and Miller (whose pass-happy ways will be welcomed in Miami) combined for 6.0 WARP.
That's a total of 63.8, and adding the 10 wins we grant for replacement level suggests the Heat flirting with the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls for the best record of all time.
Again, I think that estimate is very optimistic. At the same time, Miami has the chance to potentially lure players who can contribute positive WARP despite having only replacement-level salaries to offer. 60-plus wins seems to be the statistical consensus for what the Heat might achieve.
John Hollinger estimated 61 wins, Paine's various estimates had a floor of 61 and Haralobos Voulgaris comes up with 64 wins.
That's despite the fact that all those projections filled out the roster with nothing but replacement players, not giving Miami the benefit of Chalmers or Miller."
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...articleid=1180
Are they going to play 4 on 5 all year? Then, yeah, they will probably win 45 games.
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