Tiago Splitter Preview - Part 2

[timvp]

Previously, I gave a scouting report on Tiago Splitter. In this installment, I'll look at Splitter's potential production from a statistical point of view. If added to the roster, what kind of numbers can the Spurs expect?

I tackled the question a few different ways. First, I used Luis Scola as a model. Scola's transition from Europe to the NBA should be a very good guide. Not only did Scola come from the same Spanish team as Splitter, he also entered the NBA as a power forward next to a dominant center. Next, I used John Hollinger's European translation system. To round out the analysis, I gave my subjective statistical predictions.

In the chart below, there are five Splitter variations that each forecast his production per 40 minutes of playing time. Here's an explanation of each superscript:

1) These numbers were derived by comparing Splitter's last three seasons in the Spanish basketball league to Scola's last three seasons in the same league and then using Scola's rookie season with the Rockets as the model.

2) Same as above except I used three years of Euroleague when comparing instead of the Spanish league.

3) I took Splitter's pace-adjusted per-minute 2010 Euroleague stats and then applied Hollinger's European translation system. (His system only projects a limited number of stats.)

4) Instead of simply using Splitter's last season of Euroleague action, I used a larger sample size by combining his last three seasons.

5) My subjective predictions.

For comparison's sake, I included Scola's rookie season stats and numbers for notable Spurs bigmen of the Tim Duncan Era. Last season's stats were used for Duncan, McDyess, Blair and Bonner. I used 1999 stats for Robinson, 2003 for Rose, 2004 for Horry and Nesterovic, 2006 for Mohammed, 2007 for Oberto and 2009 for Thomas.



Points Per 40 Minutes
Each formula resulted in a relatively similar number. My prediction was closer to the lower end since I don't think Splitter will have many plays run for him. I envision him getting most of his points off of hustle plays, good ball movement and sporadic pick-and-roll sets.

Field Goal Percentage
The percentages here vary greatly -- from 41.5% to 55.7%. I predicted he'd hit slightly less than half of his attempts. I expect the vast majority of his shots to be from the painted area, however I do think he'll need to tweak his offensive repertoire. In Europe, he oftentimes went with finesse over power. Eventually Splitter should shoot 52-54% from the field but there will be an adjustment period in his rookie season.

Rebounds Per 40 Minutes
The predictions in this category are all very close. I went with the bottom of the range due to the fact that he'll spend a lot of time playing next to Duncan and Blair -- two of the best rebounders on the planet. If Splitter adds beef down the line, he should eventually be able to reach double-digits.

Assists Per 40 Minutes
This is where the numbers varied the most. Hollinger's system predicts Splitter to be an elite passer for a bigman. Though I do think that he is a very good passer, it's difficult to rack up assists in the Spurs system. For example, Blair showed quality passing ability last season and yet his assists numbers were below average. With that in mind, my prediction for Splitter was conservative.

Steals Per 40 Minutes
Popovich usually frowns upon bigmen who play the passing lanes too often. Especially in his rookie season, Splitter will likely concentrate on defending the post rather than reaching for steals. Eventually, Splitter's length and quick feet could allow him to challenge Robinson's supremacy in this category.

Blocks Per 40 Minutes
In my opinion, this is the most interesting set of stats. The formulas have Splitter becoming a poor shot blocker in the NBA. Since shot blocking is supposedly one of Splitter's main strengths according to just about every basketball scout, coach and analyst, the fact that his numbers are below those of Bonner and Oberto is shocking. I simply can't imagine Splitter averaging less than one block per 40 minutes. He's too long, too quick and too engaged to not become at least an average shot blocker. It will also help that fouls won't be as much of a worry on the NBA level. In Europe, his team was toast if he got in foul trouble; he can be more aggressive with the Spurs.

Turnovers Per 40 Minutes
I expect Splitter to have some issues with turnovers early on in his rookie season. Splitter is a sub par ball-handler (even for a bigman) and he's accustomed to setting screens that aren't legal in the NBA. Also, he'll need to speed up his moves on the low block. NBA players are too quick for him to continuously pound the ball like he does in Europe. That said, with enough minutes, he should figure it out by around the All-Star break.

Fouls Per 40 Minutes
Splitter's aggressiveness is key to his success in San Antonio. For that reason, a greater rate of fouls would actually be an encouraging sign. If he's not going for blocks and crashing the boards, he wouldn't be doing his job. Thus, I expect a relatively large number of fouls.

Player Efficiency Rating
The league average PER is 15, while a PER of 20 translates to All-Star level play. For Splitter, any number above 15 in his rookie season would be a success. (Last season, the only Spurs with a above average PER were Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, Blair and Mahinmi.) A PER of 16.1, as I predicted, would surely place him in the top ten of rookies for the 2010-11 season.

Conclusion
I expect Splitter to be an above average NBA player from right off the boat, however I think it'd be foolish to expect big numbers during his rookie season. If he's playing well, I see Popovich giving him approximately 25 minutes per night, which would give Splitter the following averages: 9.7 points, 6 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 0.6 blocks.


The third installment of the Splitter preview will include interview transcripts with scouts who have paid close attention to Splitter over the years.

[Libri]

Cool

[Cane]

Good read.

[spursbird]

Thanks Timvp. How is his defense compared to Varejao?

[Libri]

Anybody know how many shots he has averaged per game?

[murpjf88]

He doesn't block a lot of shots. Teams are still going to have the run of the paint.

[Sigz]

I hear this guy flops more than blocks shots.

[ElNono]

Thanks for taking the time to put that together

[angelbelow]

thanks for the work.

[picnroll]

Nice write up.

I'm not expecting a lot of blocked shots either. I haven't seen a lot of him but What I've seen he tends to defend the paint with his arms up like Rasho. In fact his defense reminds of a quicker Rasho but remains to be seen if hevpositions himself as well. I don't think he has much in the way of leaps.

[50 cent]

Nice work. What that chart really tells me is that Blair needs to be getting a of a lot more minutes.

[Phenomanul]

Thanks for the statistical analysis... I guess given the predicted numbers he won't sniff the ROY race...

[Obstructed_View]

Nice write up.

I'm not expecting a lot of blocked shots either. I haven't seen a lot of him but What I've seen he tends to defend the paint with his arms up like Rasho. In fact his defense reminds of a quicker Rasho but remains to be seen if hevpositions himself as well. I don't think he has much in the way of leaps.

If he can defend the paint half as well as Rasho I'll be more than pleased.

[Manu-of-steel]

Thanks timvp.

[Seventyniner]

Nice write up.

I'm not expecting a lot of blocked shots either. I haven't seen a lot of him but What I've seen he tends to defend the paint with his arms up like Rasho. In fact his defense reminds of a quicker Rasho but remains to be seen if hevpositions himself as well. I don't think he has much in the way of leaps.

Didn't Rasho average close to 2 BPG as a starter with the Spurs?

[picnroll]

If he can defend the paint half as well as Rasho I'll be more than pleased.

I'll be pleased too. I think that's going to be the strength of his game and something badly needed. He probably won't be able to body up the stronger bigs as well though I don't think.

[Spurs Brazil]

great read timvp

I see Popovich giving him approximately 25 minutes per night, which would give Splitter the following averages: 9.7 points, 6 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 0.6 blocks.

That would be good

[mookie2001]

i guess the points are good but dont lie to yourselves

6 rebounds and 1.4 assists and .6 blocks is not good

[EricB]

I'll take 10 and 6 his rookie year. Here's hoping he doesn't get hurt in turkey..

[EricB]

i guess the points are good but dont lie to yourselves

6 rebounds and 1.4 assists and .6 blocks is not good

yeah for the 28h pick in the draft that's just horrid.

[mookie2001]

no tpark its not horrid, but please dont sit here and tell me 6 boards, 1 asst and less than a block is good for a bigman

nobody can argue that

[AFBlue]

Awesome read man. And I'm glad you included some Hollinger Euro conversion. He may be WAY too much into his statistical analysis, but his Euro to NBA conversion is usually pretty accurate.

[Spursmania]

Very nice timvp

[Juanobili]

You could charge me monthly and I'd still pay to visit this board

thanks for the previews timvp!

[bigdog]

Good read, as always, LJ. I'm not one that's obsessed with Hollinger-like statistical stuff, but still good, nonetheless.