ChrisMannixSI: RJ Doesn't Have Deal with Spurs

[DPG21920]

MB, why do you think there is such a huge drop off from RJ and what is left? Sure, from a talent stand point, you are correct. But if you are looking at stats and fit, there is hardly any gap in my opinion.

On no level does it make sense to pay RJ long term. Keeping RJ does not make the Spurs a true contender now. The Spurs can likely get very close to RJ's stats being replaced with guys who are cheaper and all around better fits. They might not do everything as good as RJ, but if you combine their talents, they do the things the Spurs need from their SF to at least give the team the same chance to compete for a le as they have with RJ. Then, RJ long-term hurts the rebuilding process as well.

[DPG21920]

MB, why do you think there is such a huge drop off from RJ and what is left? Sure, from a talent stand point, you are correct. But if you are looking at stats and fit, there is hardly any gap in my opinion.

On no level does it make sense to pay RJ long term. Keeping RJ does not make the Spurs a true contender now. The Spurs can likely get very close to RJ's stats being replaced with guys who are cheaper and all around better fits. They might not do everything as good as RJ, but if you combine their talents, they do the things the Spurs need from their SF to at least give the team the same chance to compete for a le as they have with RJ. Then, RJ long-term hurts the rebuilding process as well.

This post by HH explains my thinking...

a lot of overreacting IMO..this could be bad, but it's not a panic situation..let it play out first..I didn't read past the 2nd page, so I'll probably repeat some points that others have made..

I thought Jefferson would work out due to the fact that he shot a great % from 3s in the previous season(I assumed it wasn't an anomaly) and the fact that he was once a good defender(I assumed he could still be one with a reduced offensive role)..I was very wrong..

Jefferson had a disgustingly bad 13 PER this season, which shows his statistical output..his efficiency wasn't bad, but he shot 31% from 3, which won't work in this system(or any system in the NBA where you aren't one of the main options, TBH)..

In the playoffs, he had a horrid 10 PER, while shooting 20% from 3s..the other team purposely left him open, as Jarred Dudley admitted, and it really hurt the Spurs offense..

How did he make up for it?..he didn't, really IMO..he was a decent rebounder, 2nd best wing rebounder on the team behind Hairston(statistically)..defensively?..he was usually horrible..he had some games where he played good help D, and he had some games where he played good individual D(usually on big SG/SF types like Pierce and Joe Johnson), but he was usually pretty bad..he missed an amazing amount of rotations, and he often didn't provide any energy for the Spurs..

In regards to creating offense, 70% of his points were assisted..an extremely high number for a wing player..the only players that created less offense for the Spurs this season were Bonner, McDyess and Bogans..

Jefferson had more FGA outside of 10+ feet than he did inside, which speaks on how poor of a fit he is..with this team, he has to spend a lot of time outside of his comfort zone..to allow Jefferson to get in a comfort zone, it requires him to have the ball in his hands a lot, which isn't a possibility for a team that wants to win more than 30 games..

So basically, for the Spurs, Richard Jefferson was a role player that couldn't shoot and couldn't defend..how does that make any sense?..it's not difficult to find an upgrade over that..



So potential negatives that could come out of this:

-Spurs re-sign Jefferson for longer..this would be horrible and wouldn't make any sense for the Spurs..

-The Spurs won't find a better talent..this is a given, it will have to be accepted..the Spurs won't find a guy with more talent or with a bigger name than Jefferson..

-It creates a bigger question mark for a position that already had plenty of question marks to begin with..

-No ability for a trade at the deadline..

Potential positives:

-It forces the Spurs' FO to be aggressive..

-It makes room for a possible better fit, which would come in the form of shooting + defending, which isn't that difficult to find..anybody that can play D and shoot 30+ % from 3 is an upgrade over Jefferson..

-This could lead to a S&T..


If Hairston and/or Gee can shoot 30%+ from 3, they are upgrades over Jefferson from a fitting standpoint..if the Spurs get a Barnes or James Jones type, they would pretty much be an instant upgrade over Jefferson from a fit-standpoint..

I don't think some people understand how bad Jefferson was this season..

RJ has the better peak ability than anybody the Spurs could potentially acquire(outside of a trade), but from a consistency standpoint, it would be difficult to NOT find an upgrade..if the Spurs can get a good defensive wing, which isn't difficult to find(as long as they aren't looking for 30+ year olds), it's an upgrade over Jefferson from a fit-standpoint..Jefferson didn't consistently give the Spurs anything..

[Bruno]

It depends on how you view the future. If you're of the opinion that the championship window officially closes when TD retires (most likely in two years) then Jefferson's contract doesn't matter that much and the drop off from him to what's available to the Spurs is significant. If you believe that the Spurs can retool on the fly, with TP choosing to remain in SA and the Spurs building a team around him, then perhaps being frugal with Jefferson makes some sense.

I disagree with you idea that it's all about the 2 next years and what happens after doesn't matter.

Even if you think that Spurs will rebuild in 2012, giving RJ a long term big contract is a bad idea.
The most bad contracts you have, the longer the rebuilding process is. Having aging average players like RJ or Bonner under contract will hurt a rebuilding process.

When I see that Spurs have struggled to fill the AT&T center for a WCF, I can't imagine what could happen if Spurs sucked for many years. Spurs should do all their possible to speed up as much as possible their rebuilding phase if there is one.

[DPG21920]

Also, the Spurs have started the re-building on the fly like MB mentioned. They have Hill, Tiago & Blair along with a couple other good young prospects (James Anderson, Richards, Malik, Gee, Temple...).

So I doubt the Spurs want to mortgage their future to bring in a bad fit long-term. I would not mind RJ on a two year deal, but that is simply not realistic.

[Vic Petro]

And not to make it about Tony again, but if it does come down to him and the Spurs parting ways, the team should be able to pluck a couple of high draft picks in a S&T.

They could have the benefit of owning high lottery picks without ever really having a lottery record. Tanking and/or losing isn't the only way to get a high draft pick.

The right one of those can completely change the fortunes of a franchise. We've proven to be pretty lucky in that regard...

[Vic Petro]

This is interesting...

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...league-roundup

David Thorpe on Al-Farouq Aminu: "I love the draft pick at that spot, he has real value there going forward. He can be a terrific player. I just don't like him as a 3 for a year or two. That position plays into all of his bad habits. Far too much dribbling and settling for jumpers. Far too little offensive rebounding-three total in their last three games. If he was constantly battling around inside, he'd get three a game simply due to his reach, feel, and talent. I like building players from the inside-out, and from a base of confidence. He's shooting less than 25 percent from the field and has one assist to 13 turnovers. That's a scary foundation for such a young player. He'd kill this league as a 4."

If the Clippers come to the same conclusion and play Aminu more at the 4, then perhaps their interest in RJ grows...