SA isn't any closer to beating LA now than they were 3 seasons ago in the WCF. If anything, they are much farther away because the team just doesn't have anything left in the tank by that time of the year.
SenorSpur is correct in that Boston was only able to give LA a battle because of surpassing LA in doing the dirty work - defense, rebounding, physical play, loose balls. When SA went away from that approach - they lost any realistic hope of beating the Lakers.
No team is going to beat LA on the offensive end. Even when LA isn't efficient - they still have Kobe and the edge inside, not to mention an offense that will get enough when it counts. Whether its a slugfest or shootout, LA is still going to score.
Any team who beats LA has to bring the physical play to LA, dominate the glass, not give up easy points inside to Pau and Bynum, AND make it tough for Kobe on the perimeter. Not many teams have been built to do that in recent years. Houston got close. Boston did once and was right there the 2nd time. Every other team they played - once LA figured them out it was over.
I can't see the Spurs having a chance in the playoffs as long as Duncan and Manu play 60+ games. Even then, Duncan isn't as good as Pau is now and Many isn't Kobe. Yeah - the SA guys have glimpses but they can't do it every night like Pau and Kobe can. And Tony Parker isn't beating LA. No PG is beating LA. You can only beat LA inside-out. Tough to do when LA has the most talented trio of big men.
SA's Big Three isn't good enough to beat LA's best Three. When that's the case its all downhill from there.
So unless Splitter is Mose-Malone like, the Spurs won't be able to physically beat up on LA, and because of LA's length, they won't be able to control the glass either. And who is going to slow down Kobe ala Battier, Posey, Allen. LA was slick by grabbing Artest and Barnes - 2 of the better defenders on him.
The Western Conference will likely end just like it did the past 3 seasons. That's not me as a fan - just the evidence at hand.