927.5mbs, 129 knot 30 second sustained flight level, 130 knot flight level gust, 100 knot surface.
7 mbs from Cat 5 pressure.
Indeed. We'll probably see some fluctuation in strength over the next 24 hours...hopefully towards lower.
Another positive thing about Earl is that if you had to pick a side of the hurricane to brush the EC then this is it. The worst of the storm surge is located at the right front part of the storm. Even if the eye makes a brush with coast, the surge should not that bad. If he can stay around 50 miles offshore, the EC should be in decent shape.
Yeah, the NE quadrant is always (well, almost always) the strongest for hurricanes in our little corner of the world.
Earl looking much stronger still. I think by the 11 pm EST update, he'll hit Cat 5 status. Perfect symmetry in Earl's core right now.
I don't think he'll hit CAT 5 because even though his pressure is dropping its such a big storm and it takes too much time for those winds to catch up.
I hope NASA is getting good data with their GlobalHawk right now.
http://grip.nsstc.nasa.gov/
You bet they are. Here is a good picture of water temps along the coast:
The good thing about this graphic is that if Earl does hit Cape Cod, he should weaken in the cooler waters leading up to it. After that the bottom should fall out of him and will probably be a weak Cat 1 or weaker before landing in Nova Scotia.
He is at the low end of a Cat 4 though and if SHIPS shear forecasts stay the same, he shouldn't get a whole lot stronger than this.
He'll weaken before MA but more due to the trough sweeping him up than the cold water. He'll be moving too fast for the water to have that much of an effect on him but 30+ mph of sheer affecting his circulation will certainly start to tear him apart.
Also for good rapid intensification, if I remember correctly you need about 60 KJ per cubic CM of TCHP and if you look at the TCHP maps he's about to leave that. The high SSTs will help him maintain strength but they really don't help a storm reach the next level.
Well see but I think its unlikely.
Also the last Vortex message wasn't an indicator this baby is going Cat 5.
932 mb pressurem, only a 7 degree temp differential in the eye and an open eyewall to the south.
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 00:01Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Earl9
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°59'N 73°26'W (26.9833N 73.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 277 miles (445 km) to the ENE (61°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 98kts (~ 112.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the E (88°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 183° at 130kts (From the S at ~ 149.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the E (87°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 932mb (27.52 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Al ude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,510m (11,516ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Al ude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,994m (13,104ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 130kts (~ 149.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:46Z
Well, just 10-12 hours ago he wasn't even supposed to reach Cat 4 status. I wouldn't rule anything out with water temps this warm. He'll probably hit the top end of Cat 4 status at least, if he hasn't already done so.
Alright...I'm hurricaned out for the day. I'm giving it a rest until tomorrow. We'll know more then anyway.
Then again Advanced Dvorak Technique numbers are probably approaching an 7 right now which is a strong cat four.
Hurricaned out? IMPOSSIBLE!
Recon just made another pass through the center - hopefully we get another Vortex soon.
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km
Center Temp : +12.1C
There you go, Manny.
Thats a MW pass about 2 hours old. Pretty damn nice eye structure.
I need to read more on how these microwave sat's work. They are invaluable for discerning the inner structure of these storms.
He's wrapping the deepest convection all the way around his eye. I'd say it's closed off at this point. Beautiful storm.
Symmetric is exceptional. I can't believe they're going to find an open eyewall any longer.
CH, Annular?
(not yet)
Symmetric is exceptional. I can't believe they're going to find an open eyewall any longer.
CH, Annular?
(not yet)
They've been talking about it on the accuweather forums... actually for two days. But the knowledgeable weathercasters are ignoring those posts or basically saying, "Uh, no."
He's very symmetrical, but this is typified by many hurricanes nearing Cat 5. So, he has some annular characteristics, but he's not really in that neighborhood yet.
Holy. Crap.
The eye of Earl is bigger than Lake Okeechobee!
ing epic.
Well...the long day at work probably has something to do with it too.I'll check back in in the AM.
I still see you!
Well...the long day at work probably has something to do with it too.I still see you!
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