Roster and rotation questions ?

[ElNono]

What I meant by 28-31 minutes a night is the overall average-- Although I believe it will be closer to 28. But in reality who cares? 26-28 minutes a night is off by 2 minutes. Huge difference?

I can see Manu playing 22 minutes a night on several occasions when Spurs are up by a wide margin early in the 2nd half. But the overall average, when you correlate the big games against the elite of the NBA and the games against the JV of the league, I think he will average around 28 minutes a night when it's all said and done. ( Which has been the norm excluding his rookie season; 28 is not a lot by any means).

And of course his body is 33 years old, but so far in his career the age of his body has not effected or declined his overall play as we saw first hand last season. That is where I disagree on his "obvious decline".

I agree. I suspect that a lot of both the lineups and minutes decisions will hinge on wins/losses. Can't do what we did last season of laying an egg early and sneaking into the playoffs.

[benefactor]

Until the day I see significant regression in Manu's game, then I will agree with you. But just 6-7 months ago I saw Manu play the best ball of his career and scoring in every which way. So I have to disagree with take.


Little more than a savvy spot up shooter? That's a wild assumption for the fact that Manu has yet to show significant regression in his game . There's been no inclination that Manu's game has regressed or slowed down considerably to where it's easy to assume he will be a little more than a 02' Steve Smith in 2 years. In fact, last year he played more minutes than he did the previous season. And that's because he came back from a major surgery on his foot. Smdh



Again, where were you last season after the all-star break when Manu was just getting his confidence back after significant surgery on his foot? Did you see Manu play at all last year?

He was the best player in the NBA for a solid month 1/2. Probably the 3rd best shooting guard behind Wade and Bryant the entire year. What in gods name gives you the opinion Manu is in his decline from all that? You really boggle my mind at times bro. And this is one of those times. I understand that he is 33 years old, but I've seen no decline in his game as of yet (imo).



Wow 22-25 minutes a night? You are acting like 28-30 minutes is most of the game, when in fact it's barely over half.

I can't see your reasoning. I just can't... Not with the Manu most of us witnessed last season and for the fact that his play has yet to decline.

The 3rd best shooting guard in the game. Yeah oook..You're right, he needs to be limited to 22 minutes a night because his game is already declining and we need to save him for 2 years down the road when this team is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things ( le talk). SMDH

When did I say I wanted to save him for 2 years down the road? I just want him healthy for the playoffs. 28-30 minutes is just over half the game? I guess you will need to give me link to where they have decided to make games somewhere between 56 and 60 minutes long. If you can't then you will probably need to stick with the 25 minutes I suggested, which is...well...just over half the game. Remember, the 25 minutes I suggested is for the bulk of the season. I have no problem increasing his minutes during the games and stretches of the season I previously mentioned.

He played outstanding last late year...especially after Parker went down. I was actually very concerned with the load he was having to carry and his minutes during that time. I just knew an injury was coming...but thankfully, it didn't. I'd love to see that Manu late in the year again. Getting him there is where my minutes concern lies.

That good stretch does suddenly make him Supermanu for a full season again. I'm not sure where you get this idea that players are going to be better or stay the same as they get older(you do the same thing with RJ). If everyone stays, healthy the Spurs do not need Manu to play 30mpg during the season to win 50-55 games. The Spurs have enough help to where they can beat most teams on most nights with him playing 25. Supermanu needs to show up for the playoffs..and getting him there will be predicated on monitoring his minutes closer than ever.

[mingus]

Manu clearly looked tired in some of the Suns games/losses. he was flat on a lot of his threes. blame his nose, but that doesn't make you have no lift on your 3's. that's why everyone has to stay healthy this year. one guy goes down, and Manu and Tim can't pick up the slack and not being affected by it later on in the season.

[MaNu4Tres]

When did I say I wanted to save him for 2 years down the road? I just want him healthy for the playoffs. 28-30 minutes is just over half the game? I guess you will need to give me link to where they have decided to make games somewhere between 56 and 60 minutes long. If you can't then you will probably need to stick with the 25 minutes I suggested, which is...well...just over half the game. Remember, the 25 minutes I suggested is for the bulk of the season. I have no problem increasing his minutes during the games and stretches of the season I previously mentioned.

He played outstanding last late year...especially after Parker went down. I was actually very concerned with the load he was having to carry and his minutes during that time. I just knew an injury was coming...but thankfully, it didn't. I'd love to see that Manu late in the year again. Getting him there is where my minutes concern lies.

That good stretch does suddenly make him Supermanu for a full season again. I'm not sure where you get this idea that players are going to be better or stay the same as they get older(you do the same thing with RJ). If everyone stays, healthy the Spurs do not need Manu to play 30mpg during the season to win 50-55 games. The Spurs have enough help to where they can beat most teams on most nights with him playing 25. Supermanu needs to show up for the playoffs..and getting him there will be predicated on monitoring his minutes closer than ever.

So basically our argument is over 3-5 minutes give or take?

[benefactor]

So basically our argument is over 3-5 minutes give or take?

That 5 minutes per game can be the difference between sustaining and injury and staying healthy...especially with a player like Manu who is balls out the whole time he is in the game. No one in the league pushes themselves like Manu does...and that type of pushing leads to quicker muscle fatigue which leads to injury.

[MaNu4Tres]

Manu clearly looked tired in some of the Suns games/losses. he was flat on a lot of his threes. blame his nose, but that doesn't make you have no lift on your 3's. that's why everyone has to stay healthy this year. one guy goes down, and Manu and Tim can't pick up the slack and not being affected by it later on in the season.

Manu wasn't bending over on his knees because of the minutes he played in the regular season. Manu was bending over on his knees because Pop elected to invest in the wrong players( Mason/Bogans)who didn't perform for the last 4 months of the year. Which consequently lead to Pop overplaying Manu 38 minutes a night against Phoenix because he was left with no bench after Mason and Bogans were still the same terrible performers.

Manu and Tim can't play those type minutes in the playoffs anymore (36-42 minutes a night) and be efficiently effective in the 4th quarter ( where the Spurs need them most for executing purposes).

[MaNu4Tres]

That 5 minutes per game can be the difference between sustaining and injury and staying healthy...especially with a player like Manu who is balls out the whole time he is in the game. No one in the league pushes themselves like Manu does...and that type of pushing leads to quicker muscle fatigue which leads to injury.

Yet Manu's minutes have been relatively the same his entire career and he has yet to show a sign of "obvious decline" as his age has reached 33 years old.

28 minutes a night is not too much for Manu, even being balls to wall. It's 4 more minutes than half the game. Which is "barely" than half the game by the way.

[elemento]

I igree with Manu4tres in eveything, except for Neal not making the starting 12.

They gave Neal a guaranteed contract in the 1st year for a reason. He will be among the 12.

Inactive roster will be Temple/Gee/Gist IMO.

[ducks]

Manu wasn't bending over on his knees because of the minutes he played in the regular season. Manu was bending over on his knees because Pop elected to invest in the wrong players( Mason/Bogans)who didn't perform for the last 4 months of the year. Which consequently lead to Pop overplaying Manu 38 minutes a night against Phoenix because he was left with no bench after Mason and Bogans were still the same terrible performers.

Manu and Tim can't play those type minutes in the playoffs anymore (36-42 minutes a night) and be efficiently effective in the 4th quarter ( where the Spurs need them most for executing purposes).

HE IS ING OLD and can only play 25 minutes a game during the regular season
that is why spurs got ed with the big contract he signed

[DesignatedT]

Roster

The way I see it, if the Spurs have to trim their line-up down to 15. The last spot will come down to either Penny or Gee. I'm assuming Gist will make it, while Jerells and the other Big ( Gou..s) get's cut.

That could be a problem

[elemento]

I have a question for the salary experts

From what I've read (especially from Bruno's topic), we could have 13 guys in our roster without having to pay the luxury tax. Fourteen would only be possible if Gist is the 14th guy, right?

Are we willing to pay Bobby Simmons more than the NBA minimum? If we do, would we still have to waive Gee or Temple ?

[spectator]

why do we have to worry so much about the 3rd string guys? they never make the difference in the PO. simmons, gee, temple, gist - will not see ANY minutes in the PO if 1st and 2nd strings are healthy.

my opinion is that pop will play tony-hill-manu-rj at the 1-2-3 in the PO - just like he did last year; again, just like he did when it mattered. personally, i would find a more interesting debate in arguing who should play next to duncan. i like what i have seen from blair in practice and i am looking forward to seeing how splitter fits in. since we have to beat la anyway, i think pop needs to work duncan and tiago together so they get used to playing with each other.

[TD 21]

What I meant by 28-31 minutes a night is the overall average-- Although I believe it will be closer to 28. But in reality who cares? 26-28 minutes a night is off by 2 minutes. Huge difference?

I can see Manu playing 22 minutes a night on several occasions when Spurs are up by a wide margin early in the 2nd half. But the overall average, when you correlate the big games against the elite of the NBA and the games against the JV of the league, I think he will average around 28 minutes a night when it's all said and done. ( Which has been the norm excluding his rookie season; 28 is not a lot by any means).

And of course his body is 33 years old, but so far in his career the age of his body has not effected or declined his overall play as we saw first hand last season. That is where I disagree on his "obvious decline".

Excellent overall analysis and breakdown of the roster/rotation. I agree with virtually everything you said, right down to Ginobili's minutes.

In terms of Duncan's and Ginobili's minutes, the problem wasn't the minutes per se, it was how arduous many of them were. I'd say the lowest average we'll see is Duncan 30 mpg and Ginobili 27 mpg and I'm confident that they can handle that just fine, so long as many of those minutes aren't as arduous as they were last season. Fortunately, in the case of both, they don't figure to be.

elemento, I presume the reason the Spurs gave Neal a guaranteed contract is not necessarily because they wanted to guarantee him or see him as an automatic for the active roster, but because that was what it took to get him out of Europe, where he was a featured player and to fend off opposing NBA teams that were interested in signing him.

It's low risk/high reward. If he doesn't pan out, he's inexpensive and they can easily dispose of him at any time if they so choose. If he does pan out, then they've got an inexpensive, young, knockdown shooter for up to three seasons.

If they were a 100% sold on him, I don't think they'd have even bothered bringing Penney and Gardner to camp. Rare is the team that doesn't bring in camp fodder, but they could have went in another direction.

[lurker23]

I also agree with pretty much everything MaNu4Tres says in this thread. Great analysis.