Maybe Gallup is just caught up in the made-up that the beltway pundit are spewing thanks to the M$M they despise, but the latest Gallup polls are so far fetched you have to question why a well known pollster would put out such ty polls..
Gallup's Implausible Likely Voter Results
HuffIt's a shocking result. According to the Gallup Poll, a generic Republican candidate currently leads a generic Democratic candidate by 17 points among likely voters in a hypothetical House matchup. A margin of that magnitude on Election Day would almost certainly result in a Republican gain of at least 80 seats in the House of Representatives and the largest GOP majority since the 1920's. But how plausible are Gallup's results?
An examination of some of the internals from the latest Gallup survey of likely voters leads to the conclusion that these results are wildly implausible. First, Gallup shows a much larger percentage of Republicans (55% Republican identifiers and leaners vs. 40% Democratic identifiers and leaners) and conservatives (51% conservative vs. 28% moderates and 18% liberals) than we've ever seen in a modern election. They also show a smaller percentage of voters under the age of 30 (7%) and a larger percentage of voters over the age of 65 (27%) than we've seen in any modern election. But that's not all. The candidate preference results for some subgroups of voters are just wildly implausible.
Gallup's latest likely voter survey shows a generic Republican leading a generic Democrat by a whopping 28 points among whites, 62% to 34%. To put those numbers in perspective, in 1994, according to national exit poll data, Republicans only won the white vote by 16 points, 58% to 42%, and that was their best showing since the advent of exit polling. Gallup is telling us that right now the Republican lead among whites who are likely to vote is 12 points larger than the GOP margin among whites in 1994.
But that's not the most implausible result in the latest Gallup likely voter survey. Among nonwhites other than blacks, a group that comprises about 13% of likely voters, a generic Republican is leading a generic Democrat by 10 points, 52% to 42%. That's a group that voted Democratic by a 2-1 margin in the 2006 midterm election. Moreover, it's a group that has never given a majority of its vote to Republican candidates for Congress in any election since the advent of exit polling. According to the 2006 exit poll results, about two-thirds of these "other nonwhite" voters are Latinos. How plausible is it that at a time when the Republican Party is closely associated with stridently anti-immigrant policies that Latino voters are moving in droves toward Republican candidates? Not plausible at all, especially when Gallup's results are directly contradicted by other recent polls of Latino voters.
The Gallup Poll should be commended for making their internals available to interested observers for secondary analysis -- few other polling organizations are so generous with their data. And to be fair to Gallup, they have cautioned that these results are not a prediction of what will happen on Election Day, only a snapshot of current voter at udes. But what is the value of putting out results that defy logic but which can influence perceptions of the current electoral climate among political elites as well as the public?
Wasn't it Rasmussen that was GUARANTEEING, in October, a McLiar landslide, along with Always-Wrong Yoni?
The in bent party is gonna lose seats in mid-terms. Yawn.
What would be significant is that they lose a lot less than FCM is predicting. It would be like in bent War President dubya winning in 2004 over goddam Kerry by the smallest margin ever for an in bent. We Loved Dubya, We REALLY Loved Him
I didnt even have to read the article to know where the source is from.
Face it you two, the Dems are going to get murdered next month. MURDERED. Landslide . Supermajority in both Houses and what was accomplished? Nothing.
The only thing I heard was how unfair it was that Obama inherited all this "Republican debt". Well, the clown shouldnt have ran for the office then, even me, an amatuer at best in politics, knew that the person who won the 2008 election was going to have one of the worst chances of a successful presidency in the history of this country.
So, yes, the Republicans are going to wax that ass next month. The Dems passed a completely unpopular healthcare bill. In 2 years, thats all they did. Some abortion of a bill that will probably be repealed in short-order in 2012. Obama is/was a failure, 2 years into his presidency he is already a lameduck president. Most Americans are just counting the days until they can vote his ass out.
The Dems are done like dinner next month. Sure, theyll hold onto their stronghold seats (New England, bits of California, etc), but theyre going to lose the equal amount of seats gained in 2008 (if not worse).
You two reeeeeeally dont see how completely ineffective and completely unrealistic the Dem party is perceived? Whether true or not (i think its true), perception is reality.
Make no mistake, a return of power to Republicans will make absolutely no difference, nothing will be better or even different, just the mouths that move followed by sound will look different and appeal to a different sort of American.
Dems are toast, Repubs will reign for the next 4 years, do nothing except make it worse (just like the Dems) and then this country will think handing power over to the Dems in 2014 will make all the difference.
This country and its citizens deserves this, every bit of it.
US-Generic Ballot: 44% Democrat, 41% Republican (NBC/WSJ 10/14-18)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/1...tml?view=print
Landslide?
It looks like AT BEST the Repugs and Fox Repug Propaganda network will have to spin why they took so few seats away from Dems compared to other mid-terms.
^^^"generic ballot"
I tend to agree, even though I readily identify myself as a Democrat.
It has been my observation/intuition that you tend to speak for a rather important segment of the electorate. That segment snubbed the GOP last election, and for reasons that you are outlining will do the same for Dems this time around.
Some of us will almost always vote Democratic, and others Republican, leaving people of your vein with the real decision making power.
Hopefully you will use that to beat the party leaderships into acting responsibly. Good luck!
I get the feeling though that the polarization of the country will mean fewer and fewer people who will comprimise in Congress to get things done. We are already seeing some pretty substantial ideological purity testing going on in the GOP.
The GOP is going to fight the WH and Senate on everything. They seem to think that America wants gridlock... they'll see..
I just want a Republican House, Democrat Senate, and a Moderate President.
Sadly, I don't think that's possible, since both parties are supporting Presidential Candidates seen as far from center these days, and it seems unlikely there will be a split Congress for more than 2 years now-a-days.
"GOP is going to fight the WH and Senate on everything"
That's Non Change We Don't Need To Believe In. It's been fact since 20 JAN 2009.
Ok, so this is a poll whose conclusion you don't like...therefore it's ty where as the polls whose conclusion you do like are golden. Ok, I get it.
Your flip-flop aside, the poll is accurate, but any conclusions drawn from a generic poll, which this is in spades, can in no way be considered predictive beyond 10 minutes. Bereft of specifics such as actual candidates, it's really more of a survey of general will...and we know how flakey that can be among the voting populance. Seems like a futile poll to me.
*edit to remove unecessary nomenclature. I've got to stop being an asshole.*
Last edited by TeyshaBlue; 10-20-2010 at 04:11 PM.
LOL....."They'll see!!!!!!!" 2 years later this what you bring to the table. America wants Barry and his agenda gone. They want politicians to quit spending thier money on bull . They want a smaller government. They want a president/politician they can trust. They want someone who cares about americas past, present and future. That gridlock Obongo talking point is weakass desperate I have nothing else to say bull .
I predict you will jump aboard the Clinton bandwagon 1 year from now and Barry was "just not right for our country" campaign.
so you suppose america wants gridlock? Getting nothing accomplished dumb ass?
look stupid, I voted fro Clinton in the dem primary and would vote for her over obama in a second.
I predict I will cite a poll that shows the american public not supporting a GOP idea..and your head will explode mr. " Obama must govern based on daily polling data"..
Look stupid. Noone is talking about gridlock except your weekly memo talking points from Barry. People are talking about repealing the health care bill. Stopping Barry from putting us in to bankrupcy. Stop the left wing agenda. Stop illegal immigration. I can go on and on but you make your dumbass statments with little questions marks on the end. Son, the party is coming to an end. Literally
but, but, but polls don't matter whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
The poll that only matters to you is happening in 2 weeks. Your head will explode!
memo to dumbass..it's not hard to predict that the GOP/ Tea Party Congress will fight the WH from day one.. the american public wants progress and not gridlock...
memo to dumbass they will not be able to repeal obamacare..
memo to dumbass illiegal immigration has been an onoging problem and congress alone can't do about it...
memo to dumbass the Dems will control the Senate and WH at the very least...so the party will go on..
so polls don't matter..which means you have been full of for the past 2 years..
nice job of flip flopping and exposing your hypocrisy..
so polls don't matter..which means you have been full of for the past 2 years..
nice job of flip flopping and exposing your hypocrisy dumbass
I was acting like you, you big dummy. Quit ing crying already. You s tried your best to defend Obongo and it was all for nothing.so polls don't matter..which means you have been full of for the past 2 years..
nice job of flip flopping and exposing your hypocrisy dumbass
What is there to cry about jack? that the party in power will lose seats? the party in power is going to suffer because of the bad economy?
more brilliance..
Maybe youre right, but I have no idea. A lot of people claim to be independent even when they are not, but I truly listen to any side, not just the Big 2. I tend to gravitate toward an individual's platform than the platform of their party, but with every election I end up more disappointed now than the previous.
I never thought Obama was the "Hope and Change" he purported to be, I figured that he would just be an intelligent center-left politician who would stand on his convictions. I didnt vote for him (nor McCain), I threw my vote away willingly on a 3rd party nobody, but I knew he was going to win my state so what I thought didnt matter.
He has been the biggest political disappointment in my lifetime mainly because he raised expectations to an unattainable level with rhetoric and, well, out-n-out lies. He was the world's slickest salesmen who has been exposed for the fraudulent partisan rookie he actually is. He cant control his own party, much less bargain with the Repubs to get anything done. He believed, IMO, that since his party had majorities in Congress that he could just ram through any legislation he wanted.
Reality kicked him in the ass, repeatedly. He never made any attempt to unite the political parties, even if it meant cow-towing on party issues deemed important (union status, state funding, etc). He tried to play dictator of American domestic policy and ended up a paper tiger with its pants down.
He is an epic failure of epic proportions, he has done nothing about the two wars except change generals and continue Bush-era decisions about withdrawal timetables in Iraq. He is a puppet of the military just the same as any Republican, or any politician for that matter. I am sure a person's viewpoint changes significantly when its YOU in the meeting every morning with the Joint Chiefs, CIA intelligence reports and the like.
Unfortunately for Mr. Obama, he represents the Democratic party just the same as Bush represented the Republican party and no one wanted him around on their campaign trail. Obama finds himself in the exact same position...loathed by FAR too many Americans to have redeeming influence on matters of State.
We'll see what kind of President he is next year, thats for sure. The Republicans will control Congress and President Obama's wherewithal will be tested immensely with what Congress passes and expects to be signed. His domestic intiatives are all but rotted fruit on a very old vine. Unless he turns a Houdini in the next two years, he will be unceremoniously swept out of office without a whisper from anyone but the racially provocative.
whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
...like this exchange between GGA and Jack, as one of countless examples.
This country is getting exactly what it deserves/demands.
Conway tied Rand Paul in a poll last night.
Feingold has also pulled even
Repug/tea bagger landslide?
I lower myself to jack's level when I respond to his posts.. don't compare me to that dumbass..
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