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Shhhh! I don't think they would've noticed until redistricting.
While Republicans made big gains in the House, Senate and Governorships, the biggest gains came in State legislatures - and that will have a significant effect on party majorities for years to come.
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November 3, 2010
Biggest GOP Gains In Statehouses
By Sean Trende
Although attention has focused on GOP gains in Congress and Governor's mansions, the worst part of the night for Democrats probably came in state legislative seats. The National Conference of State Legislatures estimates that Democrats had the worst night in state legislative seats since 1928. With races outstanding in New York, Washington and Oregon, Republicans have flipped at least 14 chambers, and have unified control of 25 state legislatures. They have picked up over five hundred state legislative seats, including over 100 in New Hampshire alone.
This hurts Democrats in two ways. First, it wipes out the prospective farm team for future runs for Congress and statewide office.
But more importantly, it allows a party to control the decennial redistricting. Since 1966, all states have redistricted more-or-less together (before 1966 it was done willy-nilly; New Hampshire hadn't changed its lines since 1882).
And since that time, Democrats have controlled the process.
Consider the following chart:
Seats Controlled By Party
1966 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2010
D 138 145 147 94 157 112 55
R 34 106 39 5 79 124 182
It shows, in each redistricting, the number of seats whose redistricting was completely controlled by one part or the other. States that don't give the legislature the power to redistrict (including, now, California and Florida) are excluded. I also excluded states that had split power, although I included states like Texas and Colorado in 2002, where Democratic minorities had managed to force the issue to the courts, which adopted Democratic plans.
As you can see, during the 60s, 70s, and 80s, the Democrats controlled redistricting. Most of these seats were in the South, where state legislators deftly drew Congressional boundaries to slow down the Republican advance.
This all changed in 1990. Although Republicans controlled almost no seats in redistricting, Democratic control was reduced by the good GOP gubernatorial year of 1986. These Governors forced compromises where the GOP made advances in redistricting that had been impossible in previous decades.
In addition, a new interpretation of the Voting Rights Act limited the ability of Southern Democrats to gerrymander their states effectively. They tried, mightily, but by 1994, the GOP was riding a wave into control of seats.
So, 2000 saw the smallest disparity between the parties in redistricting in decades. Democrats chose to implement conservative in bent-protection plans in two of their largest states, Illinois and California. They imposed partisan plans in Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina and Indiana, but with Illinois and California neutralized, the GOP was able to respond in kind in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan, leveling the playing field between the parties for the first time in decades. In 2006 that playing field was tilted toward the GOP, as they engaged in the first non-court-ordered mid-decade redistricting since New York in 1970, undoing Democratic plans in Colorado (later overturned by the state courts), Texas and Georgia.
That balance led to the situation today, when the GOP was able to overtake the Democrats. By having a wave wash ashore in a redistricting year, the GOP controls redistricting in a near-majority of House seats. The Democrats would have control of California, but the state approved a non-partisan redistricting commission to oversee its anticipated 53 seats; Florida had the inverse effect on 26 seats the GOP would otherwise control.
This is a conservative estimate, as well. It assumes the status quo holds in five Governor's races, including Illinois, and in the state legislative races in Oregon, where control of both chambers dangles by a seat. Any advances by the GOP would place even more seats into the "split control" column.
Probably the biggest prize for the GOP was the North Carolina legislature, where Democrats had used convoluted map lines to enshrine Congressional majorities and their own legislative majorities for decades. Unlike most states, North Carolina excludes the governor from the redistricting process. The three conservative Democrats who hung on this year will probably find themselves in much worse seats in the next cycle.
Finally, the GOP will control or have a say in almost all of the states that are gaining or losing seats. Democrats will control Massachusetts, where a Democrat must be eliminated regardless, and perhaps Illinois, which may or may not lose a seat. Meanwhile, Republicans will control over a dozen newly-drawn seats, and chose almost a dozen more seats to be eliminated districts.
Last night's GOP wave devastating for Democrats, but it could not have come at a worse time. If the GOP takes full advantage of this opportunity, it could even expand upon its current Congressional majorities further in 2012.
Shhhh! I don't think they would've noticed until redistricting.
Yay gerrymandering!!!
And, another thing not many people are talking about is the majority of U. S. Senate seats in play, in 2012, are Democrat. Many of them in states that went Republican this election.
Dingy Harry's days as Senate Majority leader are numbered...about 730, I imagine.
could have gotten rid of reid, brown and boxer if they ran anyone worth a .
this.
to be honest, yesterday could have been worse, if it wasn't for the fact that the repubs are catering to the far right in their party when it comes to primaries and will probably do it again with the new juice the tea party feels.
the seats the dems lost were mainly blue dog, rural dems, who were pretty central to begin with, if they can find some new blood like that who's name isn't attached to the current administration they'll probably when them back in two years anyways.
It will get worse for dems. Barry won't change.
Yep. Going to be real bad here in Texas. Looking like Texas is going to be +4 on house seats and you know all those are going to end up red. On top of that, I think the state legislature is going to try and gerrymander Lloyd Doggett and Sheila Jackson Lee out of jobs.
Though SJL deserves it IMHO.........
I wish they'd do it to Eddie Berniece Johnson.
Wow. Another teabagger who advocates voter disenfranchisement.
Well, the Oregon house went from 24 republican 36 democrat to 30/30. The Oregon senate went from 12 republican 18 democrat to 14/15 with one so far undetermined. It appears Chris Dudley (R-NBA) will be governor, but that's still undecided.
I was hoping the GOP would do better and close the gap further on the senate. I really can't believe Reid won with a 10% margin.
Oh, well. I guess we'll have to wait two more years.
Well, there were reports of the rigged machines, both before and after the election. There is also the report and e-mail chain showing union intervention connected with a Reid campaign worker.
skanks is a phony christian that forgets god is watching.
Every wave goes back into the ocean, yes even tsunamis. In two years, Team Tea Bag will be just as disillusioned and uninterested as Team Hope and Change was this year.
I wouldn't count on it. I'll bet there will be a concerted effort to change the makeup of the senate in 2012, and support a grass roots president rather than and establishment president. After that, the movement may lose momentum, but I wouldn't count them out yet.
Another one of your posts that shows a lot that is wrong with politics today. Congrats.
Sadly neither will the Republicant's...
makes me sick.
Most Americans agree gerrymandering is a ridiculously corrupt way of running a government yet few Americans care to do anything about it because half of the time it benefits their favorite party, and because the assumption is that the other party would do it too. all of these people.
American democracy is a total fraud
The one thing that no one who is talking about this isn't talking about is the fact that a ton of Old South states (including TX) still have to have their re-districting Federally approved because of the Voters Rights act of 1965. Texas tried this in 2000, and it got slapped back hard.
Make book on it. No one changes Washington, and the Tea Party loyalists don't understand this yet, but they will. Over the next two years, when they see business as usual going on, they will lose interest, and a lot of the candidates swept in will be swept right back out.
The problem is, how do you make a reasonable district that ensures all voters have equal representation?
So does Lloyd. He only won because Austin is a liberal cesspool. Campbell won every county in his district but one.
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