The Jester in Winter
by G. Scott
Even among the Spurs' faithful, there are quiet concerns about their legendary anchor, Tim Duncan, and the rather un-Duncan like numbers he has put up at times this season. And although few will admit it, the specter of other legendary athletes who refused to go out at the top of their games looms over this season. Has Duncan finally reached that point in his career? Or are he and Gregg Popovich simply taking a page from former Spur Robert Horry's playbook and saving their best for the playoffs?
Maybe it's a little bit of both. Certainly one of the most obvious reasons that Duncan's numbers are down is that he is simply playing fewer minutes. But there are those nagging games this season where he seemed to struggle against the likes of Darko Milicic. And how could he pull down 18 rebounds one night but only 5 (with zero defensive boards) the next night?
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I'd like to believe that theyre taking a page out of Horrys in season vacation. It's really quite smart. On some nights Duncan's play has looked to cause concern but on others hes sharp and effective. Overall I'm not too worried about Duncan, esp with all our weapons on offense.
When his per minute numbers take a massive dip I will start to worry. The only truly noticeable dip in his per 36 minute stats is his points. When you watch the Spurs play, that makes sense.
Tim's usage rate is at an all time low. It's only logical that his scoring will suffer. He is still shooting pretty efficiently at 48% and that is with numerous missed chip shots (pun intended BJ...).
But when you start to look at all the other areas, Tim's numbers are still great. He is rebounding at 11.5 per 36 minutes which is right in line with his career numbers. He is averaging 4.1 assists per 36 minutes which is 1 assist above his career numbers. He is averaging 1 steal and 2.2 blocks per 36 minutes which is at or above his career numbers. His turnovers per 36 minutes at 2.4 is slightly below his career average of 2.7. His free throw shooting is up above 71% which is better than his career average.
So when watching older players, especially bigs, I look at per minute stats. I look at FG% and Rebounding in particular (but that is a personal thing as I believe those are the two biggest indicators of decline).
Another stat that is extremely positive (and I am piggy backing this without fact checking) is that the Spurs are an amazing 9+ points better defensively with Tim on the court.
Tim is not the Tim of old in terms of durability and mobility, but he is pretty much every bit as productive.
If we can win with him sitting on the bench, I'm all for it. Just keep him in as long as necessary to stay in team rhythm.
Ain't my piece, but I can certainly appreciate a good pun.
I feel ya, though, Tell 'Em. I ain't worried at all under the cir stance. He's still putting up the quality defensive numbers and you can really see how much he's changed his overall approach, choosing to focus on getting the dirty work done, becoming more active with his upper body (almost compensating for what he's lost in mobility with more active hands and disruptive-type tactics) and he's almost been emptying the tank in certain instances because he knows his minutes will be limited -- for the most part, there's been no real reason to save any gas for the latter stages of the game.
Scoring has been almost an afterthought for Tim a good portion of the season and it's showed at times -- he's looked out of rhythm and sync on some of his shots and moves. But it's all looked to be a timing and rhythm thing, not an inability to get the job done when needed. Tim's always been an extremely rhythm-oriented offensive player and a bit of a reluctant scorer, so simply turning it on and off has never worked all that great.
My only concern is that he makes it to the postseason healthy. If he's right, the Spurs should be all right.
(As long as Matt Bonner isn't being asked to play the roles of Steve Kerr and Robert Horry, anyway.)
With his missing more chip shots than usual, does anyone think that's related to the loss in athleticism and mobility? Or no particular reason?
The only problem I have with his game is his seeming confusion when he catches the ball. It's as if he needs to be reminded of who he is. He catches it in the post and he either immediately looks to pass or waits for a double team, instead of making a decisive, strong move. He catches it facing up outside the paint and he again immediately looks to pass, instead of shooting the mid-range jumper without hesitating or ball faking and (if the defender bites) taking the ball to the rim.
I think his post repertoire is often limited now because the more moves he makes, the more strain it puts on his knees (can't think of any other reason; it's not like he forgot how to play down there or lost his skill and touch), but we don't even see the face up bank shot much anymore.
He just doesn't seem to have as much confidence on the block as he used to. In the old days, he looked like he knew what to do before he caught it. Now he doesn't seem to know what to do after he catches it.
I'd like to see him take 16 or 18 shots in one of these upcoming games and trying to establish a rhythm.
Good points about Duncan needing to be in rhythm. I'm curious, when the playoffs are near, if Pop will tinker with Duncan's playing time, to ensure that Duncan is playing in a consistant rhythm for the playoffs?Ain't my piece, but I can certainly appreciate a good pun.
I feel ya, though, Tell 'Em. I ain't worried at all under the cir stance. He's still putting up the quality defensive numbers and you can really see how much he's changed his overall approach, choosing to focus on getting the dirty work done, becoming more active with his upper body (almost compensating for what he's lost in mobility with more active hands and disruptive-type tactics) and he's almost been emptying the tank in certain instances because he knows his minutes will be limited -- for the most part, there's been no real reason to save any gas for the latter stages of the game.
Scoring has been almost an afterthought for Tim a good portion of the season and it's showed at times -- he's looked out of rhythm and sync on some of his shots and moves. But it's all looked to be a timing and rhythm thing, not an inability to get the job done when needed. Tim's always been an extremely rhythm-oriented offensive player and a bit of a reluctant scorer, so simply turning it on and off has never worked all that great.
My only concern is that he makes it to the postseason healthy. If he's right, the Spurs should be all right.
You know Bonner will be asked to at some point in the playoffs. Just have to have faith.
Absolutely. But it's really no different than the last two years to me. I like to say athleticism provides room for error, something those who lack it -- whether it's due to age or ability -- just don't have much of.
I mean, if you think back the last two years, Tim goes on stretches where it looks like he sleepwalks to 20 points and then he'll have some smaller stretches where you wonder if he'll ever manage to break double-figures again. It's just lacking that room for error -- when health and rhythm are there, the confidence is there. And when a player's truly got his confidence, he's a completely different animal (and vice-versa).
Yeah, they'll build him up. They'll do that team-wide, though, cutting down the rotation and getting their ducks in a row.
I figured Pop would subject the team and its faithful to the prospect, so I made sure to strike preemptively -- Jobu has been very, very good to me (so far).
Duncan will be Duncan come playoff time. He is a legend after all.
I agree about the lack of confidence..he's passive and unsure of himself in the post a lot, which is unusual for Duncan..it probably has a lot to do with the lack of rhythm and conserving himself though..
The missed chip shots could be either..it could be lack of legs from the lost athleticism/mobility, it could just be early-season rust and lack of rhythm..there won't really be a way to know until the games become more meaningful..
A notable stat is that Tim Duncan is shooting 37.5% on jump shots this season..for the last 2 years, he was shooting nearly 50% from jump shots until his 2nd half decline(which usually happened around February, with the knees letting him down)..for some reason, he can't make jump shots anymore..for the last 2 years, the jump shots opened up his entire face-up game, where he showed a variety of moves and finishes from that stance..
He's shooting jump shots at the same rate he was shooting them in the 2nd half of the season the last 2 years, where he had no lift anymore due to his knees..I wonder if this has something to do with his ineffective J, or if he's just taking it easy..
His defense has been phenomenal this season, so I would guess that it's just a lack of rhythm and taking it easy on the offensive end..health is the only issue, Duncan is the last guy to worry about during the playoffs, for Spurs fans..
I didn't word that properly. Obviously, the decline in athleticism/mobility is a factor. What I meant was, is it more of a factor than the past few seasons? To me, at least, he hasn't lost a noticeable amount of athleticism/mobility from last season to this season. So is he just missing shots he'd normally make without any rhyme or reason?
I notice he plays with, not just more intensity and urgency against elite teams, but seemingly more confidence. Even though they haven't yet played them this season, watch on the 28th when they play the Lakers. He'll probably come out and play his most active, assertive game of the season. He'll post up more, look to score when he catches the ball more, vary his post game more, etc.
The only way to get in a rhythm is to shoot the ball. You can't get in a rhythm by touching the ball sporadically and being a bystander. He needs to come out in attack mode in one of these next few games, vary his offense and let it fly, even if he his shot isn't falling. That's not a license to shoot bad shots, though.
LOL, I have complete faith in Jobu, but for matty, its actually blind faith.Absolutely. But it's really no different than the last two years to me. I like to say athleticism provides room for error, something those who lack it -- whether it's due to age or ability -- just don't have much of.
I mean, if you think back the last two years, Tim goes on stretches where it looks like he sleepwalks to 20 points and then he'll have some smaller stretches where you wonder if he'll ever manage to break double-figures again. It's just lacking that room for error -- when health and rhythm are there, the confidence is there. And when a player's truly got his confidence, he's a completely different animal (and vice-versa).
Yeah, they'll build him up. They'll do that team-wide, though, cutting down the rotation and getting their ducks in a row.
I figured Pop would subject the team and its faithful to the prospect, so I made sure to strike preemptively -- Jobu has been very, very good to me (so far).
Like I said, it's just the little margin of error he plays with to me. When you don't have that same pop in the legs or the ability to see-ball-get-ball, you're thinking about how you need to pump-fake or shoot your shot a little quicker rather than just shooting the ball without conscience. Add to that the fact that Duncan's never been one of those guys that steps onto the court thinking "score the ball" and with his somewhat reluctant approach to scoring, all of that contributes to him pulling the string on a shot, not taking his time or even worrying about where he's going to land as he tries to limit the amount of risk of injury -- reckless abandon and Tim Duncan aren't going to be found in conjunction these days.
But I think we'll see more of the TD of old and not the old TD when the time comes (given health). I just see a player that's not nearly as involved at the offensive end of the floor, hasn't been able to get into a rhythm because of it and the advanced age has only added to the head games he's always played with himself -- Timmy admittedly knows how to get inside his own head:
His footwork in the post has taken a slight nose dive these days due to his legs not being the same (athletic-strength wise for w/e reason; his footwork down there just isn't as efficient when he does get the opportunities). If his feet can't get to the same spots as crisply its going to cause more tough contested shots in the post and make it easier for the defender to defend. ( That's just what I'm seeing whenever he does get touches down there on the block. IMO)
Yeah he's still being pretty damn efficient offensively, but most of his looks are coming from others creating ability, not from his own.
Yeah, that footwork goes to the whole notion of having to think before you act. Aging bodies and declining athleticism aren't the ideal cir stances for an NBA player.
It just makes you have to be closer and closer to perfect to be effective as you'd like or are accustomed to.
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