Lakers will still have HCA thru West

[Rummpd]

It is plausible that the LAL will get the HCA as they play about 5 less back to backs, have 4 less road games left, and have three games left against the Spurs. However, the LAL have a much stronger schedule left otherwise so the Spurs are sitting pretty good with a 6 game margin in the loss column and most likely just need to beat LAL one time to most likely lock up the HCA over them. Honestly, one cannot rule out the LAL making a strong run but the probability is that they will not catch the Spurs and will also expend a lot of energy trying to catch up (although their schedule despite their > SOS has signficantly less BBs, has this year 2 "psuedo" road games vs the Clippers has been a friggin gift from the NBA. The Lakers with an older starting 5 than the Spurs on average get predictably the gift of less back to backs (6 left) again vs an unreal 10 for the Spurs if I am counting right). A confounder is that the 2nd to last game of the season is a back to back for both teams against each other so it could get interesting.

the below was written by ESPN and had the chances a couple of weeks ago of the SAS and LAL winning 70 games and has both schedules side by side and records vs. the Bulls historic year. I still see the Spurs winning 65-66 and the LAL about 61-62 with both having pretty good second halfs of the season.

http://espn.go.com/nba/features/best

[Daddy_Of_All_Trolls]

So just for s sake let's play this out...lets say SA and Boston advances to the finals...barring injury and assuming both teams are equally healthy...again tell me how in the will SA's front line contend with Boston..Dejauan Blair? and again how in the will SA's inexperienced bench contend with Bostons...and again how in the will Duncan check KG at this point in their careers...Duncan will be too focused on Shaq and Perkins to even see KG coming...now back to it...Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Rondo > Parker, Ginobelli, and the dude that pointed his finger at Kobe...

The only way the West can maintain is if LA advances...If SA does it will hurt the league not be one of the best finals ever..No one outside of SA wants to see SA play..ever again...check my Nielson's ratings post for further proof...

Other than this one...you have good quality takes...no bias for LA...

Well, I say Spurs take Celtics down if they meet in 2011 finals and there are a number of reasons for it.

First, I believe Spurs will have HCA, and yes, they will need it. Boston has only played 12 games against the west so far, going 8-4. They will collect many more losses. Next, for San Antonio to advance, they likely will have to dethrone the Lakers, who are back to back champions. That's a feather in their cap. The next edge is championship experience, 3 to 1 Spurs, with the big three cores. A sideline will be Tim vs, Shaq for the 5th ring and right to be biggest big man of this era.

I've mentioned this before, but have a look at the Spurs last year. Right at the moment everyone was about to write them off, they closed the regular season quite well. They beat both Orlando and the Cavs at home, and routed both the Lakers and the Celtics on the road. They took Dallas down in round 1 in style. For whatever reasons, they just ran flat against the Suns, a team they traditionally own. Now, I am not saying they beat the Lakers if they get by Phoenix, but if they do, they have HCA vs. Boston and the potential 2011 finals comes up a year early.

I made a thread about Boston vs the other 7 western playoff teams in potential finals:

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=160527

I picked most teams over Boston, and I have a feeling Spurs fans who didn't pick San Antonio would now. Essentially, Spurs are still on the roll they started last year. The only blemish is that one series with Phoenix.

As far as handling the Boston frontline, remember this. If they advance, this means they also likely handled the Lakers frontline. Perkins is supposed to come back soon, but he may not be effective at all. ACL injuries require a lot of time to recover from. Leon Powe came back last year, but didn't do much. Adam Morrison was never the same player after he tore his. Before, he had some potential. Anyway, Perkins could be kind of like Bynum the last two years; helping, but not near 100%. Of the two O'Neal's, JO is hurt and probably won't be healthy come playoffs, and Shaq is a foul machine. Elsewhere, Boston fans are calling for Nate and Big Baby to get booted. That Celtics bench will get rolled up by the Spurs bench.

Plus, Pop is a better coach than Doc. He'll simply outmanuever him. Bottom line is, we have to wait an see.

[21_Blessings]

Honestly, one cannot rule out the LAL making a strong run but the probability is that they will not catch the Spurs and will also expend a lot of energy trying to catch up

The Lakers don't need HCA to beat the Spurs and they (Lakers) know it. They'll continue to coast like they have been all season.

Anyways, a defending champion Spurs team could only win one game against LA in 2008 despite the Lakers having two injured starters. This time around Tim is nowhere near the player he was in 2008 and the Spurs were just swept out of the playoffs in embarrassing fashion by a team that played no defense.

Don't make Kobe and Phil laugh. Lakers in 5-6 with or without HCA.

[BUMP.]

that would be the only hope Lakers have. Because we all know they never won without HCA...

Still not sure why everyone says this

Do people not remember the 2001-02 season?

[nkdlunch]

The possibilities of this are HIGHLY UNLIKELY to VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

If both teams remain healthy and the Spurs close up the season losing to EVERY SINGLE > 50% team, they end up with a record of 58-24

The Lakers would have to up their tempo to about 80% win rate to even catch up and barely pass the Spurs. Something highly impossible since the lakers have been having trouble beating teams such as the Clippers at home.

I also agree the Lakers would have to kill themselves to obtain HCA throughout. While the Spurs easily can get it by coasting the rest of the way.

We all know these Lakers have NEVER won without HCA. So the rest of the season does not bid well for the Lakers I'm afraid.

Their "mini dynasty" will officially be over in a couple of months.

[nkdlunch]

Still not sure why everyone says this

Do people not remember the 2001-02 season?

comparing the showtime Shaq led lakers to this attrocity of a team.

[nkdlunch]

The Lakers don't need HCA to beat the Spurs and they (Lakers) know it.

oh yes they do. and you know it.

[Rummpd]

The Lakers don't need HCA to beat the Spurs and they (Lakers) know it. They'll continue to coast like they have been all season.

Anyways, a defending champion Spurs team could only win one game against LA in 2008 despite the Lakers having two injured starters. This time around Tim is nowhere near the player he was in 2008 and the Spurs were just swept out of the playoffs in embarrassing fashion by a team that played no defense.

Don't make Kobe and Phil laugh. Lakers in 5-6 with or without HCA.

Pure B.S. Lakers lack of depth is startling as is the age they are showing on defense. Artest and Fisher showing much more signs of wear and tear and SAS fans can be absolutely confident that the a 20 and 10 Duncan will be there for the Spurs in the playoffs.

Lakers will not and cannot beat a fully healthy Spurs team in a series this year without home court - book that as a lock.

I also trust George Karl's opinion right now more than your's or any other LAL fan on this site - if you were not scarred less why all the trolling?
http://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articl...it_all/4004085

[21_Blessings]

oh yes they do. and you know it.

Lakers will not and cannot beat a fully healthy Spurs team in a series this year without home court - book that as a lock.

[Rummpd]

That is if the LAL even make the WCF


Even Jackson said he wanted home court as LAL has struggled without it then flips his opinion as the LAL have relatively struggled.

http://lakersblog.latimes.com/lakers...advantage.html

http://www.lakersnation.com/phil-jac...ng/2010/12/29/

Believe me LAL wants the HCA even in the West and you are delusional if you do not think HCA can help the Spurs. The following article is spot on:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/5...e-court#page/4

[21_Blessings]

http://lakersblog.latimes.com/lakers...advantage.html

Phil has your entire franchise/franbase and completely mind- ed.

BELIEVE

[Rummpd]

http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/...ose-home-court

HCA matters, see the historical stats, and again you are delusional if you do not think it does:


As a result, Tuesday's game is, particularly by late December standards, pretty massive. Should the Lakers fall six games back of the Spurs (they got hammered by the Spurs!) given the difficulty of their remaining schedule* and the quality displayed by San Antonio this season, it would probably take some sort of backslide from the current conference leaders for L.A. to earn a number one seed come playoff time. Simply playing better, which I think they will, isn't likely to be enough.

The Lakers haven't entered a playoff series without home court advantage in two seasons. Only once during the three Finals runs did they open on the road. Go ask the Celtics how '08 turned out. Drawing a straight line from the lack of home court to losing that series, or from that Lakers team to this year's group, is a mistake, but history says unless they climb out the hole in which they've placed themselves it could make a major difference this spring.

Via ESPN Stats and Information:

SERIES WON BY TEAM WITH HOME-COURT ADVANTAGE, since 1983-84 (when the NBA went to a 16-team format)

First Round: 166-50 (.769)
Conference Semifinals: 85-23 (.787)
Conference Finals: 37-17 (.685)
NBA Finals: 21-6 (.778)

[Koolaid_Man]

[QUOTE=Daddy_Of_All_Trolls;4921877]Well, I say Spurs take Celtics down if they meet in 2011 finals and there are a number of reasons for it.

First, I believe Spurs will have HCA, and yes, they will need it. Boston has only played 12 games against the west so far, going 8-4. They will collect many more losses. Next, for San Antonio to advance, they likely will have to dethrone the Lakers, who are back to back champions. That's a feather in their cap. The next edge is championship experience, 3 to 1 Spurs, with the big three cores. A sideline will be Tim vs, Shaq for the 5th ring and right to be biggest big man of this era.

Boston like LA is not overly concerned about the regular season. Are you talking les or championship experience..if les then yes Spurs have more than Boston in the last 10 yrs but if you're talking experience don't forget Boston has played in 2 finals without Shaq and if you factor Shaq's experience then Boston has the edge IMO...and let's face it experience really only matters when we're talking non HOF players...KG, Allen, Pierece, Shaq has way more basketball and leadership experience than Parker, Duncan, and Manu, it's not even close in my opinion...they all have lead teams by themselves, so it really does throw the experience argument out the window.

BTW a much more compelling sideline is Kobe vs Shaq. the in-fighting power struggle between these two over the years is in effect what allowed Duncan to get a ring in the first place. ...But Kobe v Shaq is where the ratings will be...also Kobe vs Shaq, KG, Allen, and Pierece...if Kobe can beat these guys without another HOF player on his team ( and no Pau isn't right now) he and MJ becomes co-equals immediately...MJ never faced that many HOF'ers with such genuine dislike for each other...

I've mentioned this before, but have a look at the Spurs last year. Right at the moment everyone was about to write them off, they closed the regular season quite well. They beat both Orlando and the Cavs at home, and routed both the Lakers and the Celtics on the road. They took Dallas down in round 1 in style. For whatever reasons, they just ran flat against the Suns, a team they traditionally own. Now, I am not saying they beat the Lakers if they get by Phoenix, but if they do, they have HCA vs. Boston and the potential 2011 finals comes up a year early.

The Spurs getting wrote off and bouncing back really means nothing...all that matters is they got swept. They get no kudos or points for finishing well...they got swept is what's in the records books...if you recall the Lakers are bashed every year for playing every series with the same level of intensity...but in the end they got the job done and that's what counts.

I made a thread about Boston vs the other 7 western playoff teams in potential finals:

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=160527

I picked most teams over Boston, and I have a feeling Spurs fans who didn't pick San Antonio would now. Essentially, Spurs are still on the roll they started last year. The only blemish is that one series with Phoenix.

In a way you kind of defeat your argument here...now what I mean is that again Spurs played well to end last season as you say but then they got swept after playing so well...you seem to chalk up getting swept as just some weird anomaly... you seem to be repeating the same mistake so many journalists and novice basketball fans make every year..and that's looking and the regular season as the determining factor with teams like Boston and LA...if nothing else the last few seasons should have taught you something...remember Lebron in Cleveland...2x MVP team with the most wins...and failed miserably when it was money time...just think about it...don't let yourself fall into that trap you're too good a poster for that...just say congrats on a good regular season and we'll see you in the play-offs that's it and that's all...

As far as handling the Boston frontline, remember this. If they advance, this means they also likely handled the Lakers frontline. Perkins is supposed to come back soon, but he may not be effective at all. ACL injuries require a lot of time to recover from. Leon Powe came back last year, but didn't do much. Adam Morrison was never the same player after he tore his. Before, he had some potential. Anyway, Perkins could be kind of like Bynum the last two years; helping, but not near 100%. Of the two O'Neal's, JO is hurt and probably won't be healthy come playoffs, and Shaq is a foul machine. Elsewhere, Boston fans are calling for Nate and Big Baby to get booted. That Celtics bench will get rolled up by the Spurs bench.

LA and Boston's front line are not interchangeable auto parts...LA is finesse and Boston is brute hacking monkey strength..SA does have a better shot at beating LA than Boston because of Pau's physical softness at times...but we compensate for that by playing mind games with Pau to get him going...Kobe will remind him his is Euro league MVP and then he kicks it in gear...Also all those knee issues you bring up for Boston don't forget Timmy is right there with them skating on the thin ice...my argument as initially outlined was all things equal and no injuries it hypothetically wouldn't be close...I didn't even talk about how I feel Rondo would abuse Tony...the reason being is Parker is weak defensively...granted Rondo would blow by Fish but Fish's defensive mindset is superior to that of Parker it's totally different and way more experienced..Keep in mind Kobe and Fish have played in 7 finals and won 5...that's no small order...

Plus, Pop is a better coach than Doc. He'll simply outmanuever him. Bottom line is, we have to wait an see.

I will concede this point.

[Daddy_Of_All_Trolls]

For what it's worth, HCA means if a series goes 7 games, you get the finale at home. Having HCA means you have to protect it, few series see the home team winning every game

Let's look at a bit of recent history.

Boston recently played four 7 games series, winning with HCA Atlanta and Cleveland in 2008. Chicago in 2009, and lost to Lakers w/o NCA in 2010. They stole HCA from Cleveland last year, and gave it back. Then they won again in Cleveland and closed it out at home in game 6. They won twice in Orlando, went up 3-0 and had to close it in 6. They stole HCA from the Lakers in 2010, promptly gave it back and the home teams won out. Boston has lost plenty of ECF's in 7 games with HCA. They lost a number more quicker with HCA as well. Check the results from 1972, 1973, 1975, 1980, 1982, 1988, and 2002. They had HCA in all but the latter. Heck they even got swept by the Bucks in 1983 even though they had HCA.

Lakers played two seven game series, with Houston and Boston. Both cases, LA lost once at home, early. Lakers also lost HCA to Denver in 2009, but took it back. For what it's worth, LA did beat Sacramento in 7 games in 2002 w/o HCA. Only Phil, Kobe, and Derek remain from that squad.

Spurs have played, I believe, three 6 game series recently. Won finals in 2005, beat Hornets in 7 w/o HCA in 2008, and lost to Mavs in 2006 w HCA.

Chances are slim for 7 game series. Usually, the team w HCA wins in 5, or loses in 6. Those first 4 games of a series often tell the tale.

[DMC]

My predictions have been pretty accurate for awhile now.

Last year, I said the Celtics would make the finals, and even Boston fans disagreed. This year I said the west would be between the Lakers, Spurs, and Mavs, with each having a shot to win it all. Spurs fans disagreed, not feeling the Black and Silver were contenders anymore. Well, that thing called "championship experience" I kept touting is proving me correct. Mavs would be right up there recordwise if they hadn't have lost Dirk for all those games. I thought I saw Butler is hoping to come back. I put Orlando up there with a shot, but they are a wild card now with all the player changes. Bulls may be the third best in east now, and could make some noise in the postseason.

So anyway, barring injuries or an earth shattering trade, it should come down to a WCF between LA and SA, and someone has to get HCA. In the east, Miami and Boston should play the ECF. Who wins those series? HCA will be a plus, but not a lock. Two dogfight series coming. No matter who wins them, the West will be champions. I'll stand by that for now.

Still too much to happen to get a clear picture of who gets HCA. Can all teams stay healthy? Miami may very well win the next two games with Boston, they lost twice early when they hadn't gelled. They haven't played the Spurs yet, and have one with LA at home. Lakers play Boston twice in the next few weeks, and San Antonio 3 more times. Spurs host the Celtics later on. I imagine as each of those games plays out, the fans of each winner will be calling the season over, they win the le.

Reality is, we could have three epic 7 game series to close out the last month of play. This could be one of the greatest finishes to an NBA season, ever.

tl/dr

Too busy watching your avatar

[Banzai]

please.

[Daddy_Of_All_Trolls]

[QUOTE=Koolaid_Man;4921938]

Well, I say Spurs take Celtics down if they meet in 2011 finals and there are a number of reasons for it.



Boston like LA is not overly concerned about the regular season. Are you talking les or championship experience..if les then yes Spurs have more than Boston in the last 10 yrs but if you're talking experience don't forget Boston has played in 2 finals without Shaq and if you factor Shaq's experience then Boston has the edge IMO...and let's face it experience really only matters when we're talking non HOF players...KG, Allen, Pierece, Shaq has way more basketball and leadership experience than Parker, Duncan, and Manu, it's not even close in my opinion...they all have lead teams by themselves, so it really does throw the experience argument out the window.

BTW a much more compelling sideline is Kobe vs Shaq. the in-fighting power struggle between these two over the years is in effect what allowed Duncan to get a ring in the first place. ...But Kobe v Shaq is where the ratings will be...also Kobe vs Shaq, KG, Allen, and Pierece...if Kobe can beat these guys without another HOF player on his team ( and no Pau isn't right now) he and MJ becomes co-equals immediately...MJ never faced that many HOF'ers with such genuine dislike for each other...



The Spurs getting wrote off and bouncing back really means nothing...all that matters is they got swept. They get no kudos or points for finishing well...they got swept is what's in the records books...if you recall the Lakers are bashed every year for playing every series with the same level of intensity...but in the end they got the job done and that's what counts.




In a way you kind of defeat your argument here...now what I mean is that again Spurs played well to end last season as you say but then they got swept after playing so well...you seem to chalk up getting swept as just some weird anomaly... you seem to be repeating the same mistake so many journalists and novice basketball fans make every year..and that's looking and the regular season as the determining factor with teams like Boston and LA...if nothing else the last few seasons should have taught you something...remember Lebron in Cleveland...2x MVP team with the most wins...and failed miserably when it was money time...just think about it...don't let yourself fall into that trap you're too good a poster for that...just say congrats on a good regular season and we'll see you in the play-offs that's it and that's all...



LA and Boston's front line are not interchangeable auto parts...LA is finesse and Boston is brute hacking monkey strength..SA does have a better shot at beating LA than Boston because of Pau's physical softness at times...but we compensate for that by playing mind games with Pau to get him going...Kobe will remind him his is Euro league MVP and then he kicks it in gear...Also all those knee issues you bring up for Boston don't forget Timmy is right there with them skating on the thin ice...my argument as initially outlined was all things equal and no injuries it hypothetically wouldn't be close...I didn't even talk about how I feel Rondo would abuse Tony...the reason being is Parker is weak defensively...granted Rondo would blow by Fish but Fish's defensive mindset is superior to that of Parker it's totally different and way more experienced..Keep in mind Kobe and Fish have played in 7 finals and won 5...that's no small order...



I will concede this point.

Well, no need to go over everything, but....All I was saying about Spurs last year is hypothetically last year, they would have beaten Boston, that's my opinion, and I carry that over to this year. Much of the hype going to them this year, actually is due to what started happening last year, they started winning consistently and well. Yes, I know Phoenix swept them. Take that out, and you have a team that could have won it all. I checked, Lakers and Spurs played 11 series. LA had HCA in 6 and won them all. SA had HCA in 5 and won 3. Lakers always won if they played in WCF, 4-0; 1982, 1983, 2001, and 2008. SA had HCA in 2001. Throw all that out. It's going to be a war if it happens and a lot of people are going to be right, and a lot wrong. As well as jubilant, or pissed off.

Since you are a Lakers fan, don't worry about getting HCA over Spurs. Worry about HCA over Celtics, because I promise you, they want it if they play LA. Remember, I like the Lakers, but I also like the Spurs. The Wolves should be disbanded. As long as the west wins, and the east doesn't, I'm a happy camper.

Also, I have mentioned this before. If it does come down to a Spurs/Celtics finals, Lakers fans will be rooting for the Silver and Black. No way would they root for Boston, they are within reach of having most les. Lakers will get that eventually, but they don't want to get farther behind now that they are so close.

[Koolaid_Man]

[QUOTE=Daddy_Of_All_Trolls;4921971]

Well, no need to go over everything, but....All I was saying about Spurs last year is hypothetically last year, they would have beaten Boston, that's my opinion, and I carry that over to this year. Much of the hype going to them this year, actually is due to what started happening last year, they started winning consistently and well. Yes, I know Phoenix swept them. Take that out, and you have a team that could have won it all. I checked, Lakers and Spurs played 11 series. LA had HCA in 6 and won them all. SA had HCA in 5 and won 3. Lakers always won if they played in WCF, 4-0; 1982, 1983, 2001, and 2008. SA had HCA in 2001. Throw all that out. It's going to be a war if it happens and a lot of people are going to be right, and a lot wrong. As well as jubilant, or pissed off.

Since you are a Lakers fan, don't worry about getting HCA over Spurs. Worry about HCA over Celtics, because I promise you, they want it if they play LA. Remember, I like the Lakers, but I also like the Spurs. The Wolves should be disbanded. As long as the west wins, and the east doesn't, I'm a happy camper.

Also, I have mentioned this before. If it does come down to a Spurs/Celtics finals, Lakers fans will be rooting for the Silver and Black. No way would they root for Boston, they are within reach of having most les. Lakers will get that eventually, but they don't want to get farther behind now that they are so close.

Actually I'm not worried about it all..no matter who we play...in fact I'd rather we not have it because I'm a Laker fan that believes the harder the task the more brighter the glory....I'm not ever going to reduce my teams le chances to HCA...for me it's about guts...and FYI no real Laker fan would ever root for the Spurs..Tim Duncan and Boston in the same ed up category to us...we'll remain neutral...you don't have to take sides in every debate...it's not about Western Conference...there is no honor in that.. the Spurs and Death to the Celtics... it's about the Lakers period...

[ElNono]

I'm not really concerned about this Lakeshow team. I don't think they'll even make it to the WCF, tbh.
They might be able to pull out an upset in the first round against Utah or Portland, but I don't really see them getting too much further ahead if MVPau doesn't revert to last season's level.

At this point, the Spurs should be keeping an eye on Boston and Miami in the rearview mirror, to ensure they get HCA throughout.

[SpursNextRomanEmpire]

quit hating on my man

[Koolaid_Man]

I'm not really concerned about this Lakeshow team. I don't think they'll even make it to the WCF, tbh.
They might be able to pull out an upset in the first round against Utah or Portland, but I don't really see them getting too much further ahead if MVPau doesn't revert to last season's level.

At this point, the Spurs should be keeping an eye on Boston and Miami in the rearview mirror, to ensure they get HCA throughout.

exactly to my point... novice and inexperienced fans....the Spurs have given you a reason to believe the regular is where it's at....go ahead who am I to take aware your 15 minutes of fame... enjoy it man the Spurs have played hard thus far this season...Laker fans can't have all the glory all the time especially if we're winning les every year...

[21_Blessings]

I'm not really concerned about this Lakeshow team. I don't think they'll even make it to the WCF, tbh.

At this point, the Spurs should be keeping an eye on Boston and Miami in the rearview mirror, to ensure they get HCA throughout.

So are you going to accept the ELE or not? Since you're so confident and all.

[Venti Quattro]

I guess the feeling is mutual. I don't fear the Spurs at all. The Lakers can take them anytime they want to. Non-issue

Classy spurfans are laughing at Bynum but deep inside they're all going to wet their pants when they get Drew.

[ElNono]

So are you going to accept the ELE or not? Since you're so confident and all.

I don't know yet. We have a couple of guys dinged up right now, plus I thought the regular season didn't matter?

I have tickets for the game on the 14 against the Nets, and I'd like to post upstairs. Maybe we can work something out, maybe restrict it to the NBA forum...

I'll think about it and get back to you.

[Koolaid_Man]

I don't know yet. We have a couple of guys dinged up right now, plus I thought the regular season didn't matter?

I have tickets for the game on the 14 against the Nets, and I'd like to post upstairs. Maybe we can work something out, maybe restrict it to the NBA forum...

I'll think about it and get back to you.

you talk mad to be such a big pussy...your funds low or what?