Chances Pop Wins COY?

[K-State Spur]

It usually goes to the coach of a superior team and SA seems that way this year, plus there's the narrative of Pop transitioning the team from the old 4-down and defense tactics to a more guard-oriented attack to reflect a changing roster. That's a pretty good case, I think.

Where do you guys put the chances of his winning?

Other coaches I could see winning:

- Thibodeau if Chicago catches the second seed in the East for his defensive changes and getting more out of D-Rose and overcoming injuries to Noah and Boozer.

- Doug Collins for turning around Philly and making them a really good defensive team with some promising young talent. Took basically the same roster as last year other than Hawes and made them a playoff team.

- Carlisle if Dallas wins the second seed in the West because of great D and overcoming injuries.

- Spoelstra for overcoming the crushing burden of two superstars and one very good player. If MIA wins the East.

- Monty Williams for turning NOLA into a defensive force despite a thin roster. Also kept CP3 out of trade talks for a while.

- Nate McMillan for winning despite lots of injuries.

I'd handicap the odds at:

Pop 1:2
Spoelstra 3:1
Collins 3:1
Thibodeau 5:1
Williams 5:1
Carlisle 10:1
McMillan 10:1

So you give Pop a 67% chance of winning.
Spoelstra 25%.
Collins 25%.
Thibodeau 17%.
Williams 17%.
Carlisle 9%.
McMillan 9%.

So there is a 169% chance that somebody in this group is going to win coach of the year.

(I know, Vegas does this too when handicapping, I've just always found it funny)

[fyatuk]

If the Spurs keep winning close to 85% of their games, Pop will definitely get it. Everyone keeps saying the Spurs are playing over their heads (meaning they don't think the talent is there to support this kind of record), so if they keep it up, it must be the coaching, right

I say if the Spurs end up winning 66+ games, Pop has it in the bag. Otherwise, it'll go to Thibodeau.

[DieHardSpursFan1537]

He easily could.

[coyotes_geek]

Then he would need to cut the trophy in 3 and give the pieces to Wade, James, and Bosh. Riley had about as much to do with those 3 teaming up as Stan Van Gundy had to do with the Heat le in 2006.

Irrelevant. It's an NBA award. Style trumps substance more often than not.

[21_Blessings]

Makes sense. After the Spurs flame out of the playoffs despite HCA and with Duncan on the verge of retirement it's buh bye Pop. COY is basically a NBA coach's eulogy at this point.

[Crytek]

Has anybody ever heard of the Coach-of-the-Year Curse?

[wontstartdumbthreads]

Has anybody ever heard of the Coach-of-the-Year Curse?

No. But I have heard that in some cases of an obstructed bowel, you can actually vomit up feces.

[gospursgojas]

Pop and Thibs are the only 2 I think are in the running right now.

[coyotes_geek]

Has anybody ever heard of the Coach-of-the-Year Curse?

Yep. Remember that time Gregg Popovich won it and then got fired?

[VI_Massive]

Don't sleep on Doug Collins! They have basically the same team as last year except for Jodie Meeks and Spencer Hawes instead of Dalembert at C. They're playing great defense, which is usually indicative of strong coaching, and I think the writers and broadcasters might have some extra love in their hearts for one of their own now back in the coaching fold. I still think Pop is the favorite, especially if SA keeps running away with the overall #1 seed, but I see Collins as #2.

[baseline bum]

I think Pop has the award on lockdown if the Spurs win 62+ games. No one saw this coming after the way the team had fallen off from 08-10.

[coyotes_geek]

Don't sleep on Doug Collins! They have basically the same team as last year except for Jodie Meeks and Spencer Hawes instead of Dalembert at C. They're playing great defense, which is usually indicative of strong coaching, and I think the writers and broadcasters might have some extra love in their hearts for one of their own now back in the coaching fold. I still think Pop is the favorite, especially if SA keeps running away with the overall #1 seed, but I see Collins as #2.

Collins has done a good job, no doubt. But I can't see him winning it when Pop's & Thib's teams are probably going to end up with 25+/- & 15+/- more wins than Doug's team will.

[smrattler]

This year's turnaround is all-Pop!

[boutons_deux]

Pop's turnaround from 4-down-and-defense-first to run-and-gun outscoring them certainly merits coaching honors, respect.

[DMC]

I doubt a team that made the playoffs every year since forever, and makes them them year, will have a COY award. Those generally go out to best improvement in record. What team is suddenly doing much better? The Bulls. The Heat are as well, but I don't know if anyone will attribute that to coaching.

Tight though and I think Pop deserves it for the ability to actually win games with players no one else even thought about.

[Cane]

Either Pop or Thibs. It should be favoring Pop though imo. He revamped the Spurs system, trained with RJ over the summer, and is on pace to setting one of a record and HCA throughout the playoffs while closely monitoring their minutes.

What Thibs has done is impressive as well considering he's a first year head coach and they have a great record. But they also play in the weakest division in the NBA IIRC whereas the Spurs are in the toughest FWIW.

[Obstructed_View]

Yep. Remember that time Gregg Popovich won it and then got fired?

[baseline bum]

I doubt a team that made the playoffs every year since forever, and makes them them year, will have a COY award. Those generally go out to best improvement in record. What team is suddenly doing much better? The Bulls. The Heat are as well, but I don't know if anyone will attribute that to coaching.

Tight though and I think Pop deserves it for the ability to actually win games with players no one else even thought about.

You could have said the same about 03 when Pop won it.

[DMC]

The COY "curse" is just a trend where bad teams hire a new coach, they get a 1st overall and make a big push. They do well a couple of years and suddenly the coach isn't making the team better. He gets fired (AJ, MB) and so it goes.

If COY actually went to the best coach instead of the team with the best record improvement, that curse wouldn't exist.

[duncan228]

Just Coach Pop's write-up, hit the link for the rest.

Award Watch: Coach Of The Year
By: Stephen Brotherston
Hoopsworld

There is only three weeks left to go in the regular season and the candidates for Coach of the Year are only entrenching their positions further. San Antonio Spurs' head coach Gregg Popovich continues to be chased by Doc Rivers, Tom Thibodeau, and surprisingly, Doug Collins.

The Spurs managed to widen their lead over the entire NBA by half a game last week, and despite Tim Duncan having to rest a sore ankle, it is becoming increasingly unlikely anyone can catch them.

#1 Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs, 57-13, Pace-to-win 67, last year: 50-32
(Last week #1, 54-13)

The Spurs have reeled off another three wins in a row making them the toughest team to beat after a loss in the NBA this season. The only back-to-back losses Coach Popovich has experienced were in back-to-back road games on an east coast swing in January.

However, for the second time this season Coach Popovich will be without one of his star players after Tim Duncan went down with an ankle injury on Monday night in a game against the Warriors.

"X-rays were negative, but he'll obviously be out a while," said Popovich after the game.

Popovich has been managing Duncan's minutes all season and a forced rest period probably only makes it easier to sit the Spurs' All-Star heading into what should be another strong playoff run. This shouldn't significantly impact how many regular season wins Popovich can ac ulate.

Coach Popovich has taken last year's 50-win team to first place overall in the NBA and a projected 67-win season, COY remains his to lose.

#2 Doc Rivers, Boston Celtics, 50-19, Pace-to-win 59, last year: 50-32
(Last week #2, 47-18)

#3 Tom Thibodeau, Chicago Bulls, 50-19, Pace-to-win 59, last year: 41-41, (Vinny Del Negro)
(Last week: #3, 47-18)

#4 Doug Collins, Philadelphia 76ers, 36-34, Pace-to-win 42, last year: 27-55 (Eddie Jordan)
(Last week: #4, 34-32)

#5 Lionel Hollins, Memphis Grizzlies, 39-32, Pace-to-win 45, last year: 40-42
(Last week: #5, 37-31)

Honorable Mentions

Monty Williams, New Orleans Hornets, 40-31, Pace-to-win 46, last year: 37-45, (Bryon Scott/ Jeff Bower)
(Last week: Honorable Mention, 39-30)

Rick Carlisle, Dallas Mavericks, 49-21, Pace-to-win 57, last year: 55-27
(Last week: Honorable Mention, 47-19)

Notes:

The NBA Coach of the Year (COY) is selected at the end of the regular season by a media panel whose members each cast votes for their first, second and third place choices.

HOOPSWORLD is ranking the COY race based on how the coach's team is performing against last year's record, this year's preseason expectations, and on how they are handling adversity during the season. A strong winning record is almost mandatory, but merely meeting already high expectations will not be enough. There is only a slight chance of a lottery bound coach winning this award.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=19199

[tuncaboylu]

It's a 2 horse race between Pop & Thibodeau.

+1

Spoelstra can't win if he can't get the 1st place in East with that roster and it's unlikely.
Doug Collins did something good but not enough for me. Winning 42-43 games in a season while playing 4 times against Cavs, Wizards, Raptors and Nets didn't impress me at all.

Thibodeau is the only rival of Pop for that prize.

[Splits]

If Pop doesn't win it this year, it will be a crime against humanity. Much like Ghaddafi's actions.

[itzsoweezee]

0%. Thibs is winning it, no question. First year coaching and he's got the best team in the east (and probably the league) and the best defense in the NBA. Derrick Rose is playing defense. Bogans is in the starting lineup and they're still winning. They've been plagued by injuries all year without much detriment. Come on

[DJ Mbenga]

thibs or collins. suprised nobody is talking about them. they started out 1-9 look at their record now

[wijayas]

Has anybody ever heard of the Coach-of-the-Year Curse?

Yep. I wish Pop did not win.
Look what happened to AJ after a 67-win season with Dallas!