Which, if any, of these are HOFs ?

[JamStone]

Deke is far from a sure thing as a player.

I think Ben Wallace has a better chance than Dikembe.

[Blake]

4-time Defensive POY, multiple All-NBA teams, 8-time All-Star and 2nd All-Time in blocks.

then that means Ben Wallace would probably get in too.

[FkLA]

Decided to go to basketball reference HOF probability to see what they thought. It obviously isn't 100% accurate but it's an interesting gauge because it is based on statistical information and it does seem somewhat accurate.

HOF Probability list: http://www.basketball-reference.com/...ob_career.html

The formula they use: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Basically, if you're ranked in the top 75 or so on the list, you're essentially a lock for the HOF unless you're Jo Jo White. Once you get past around 75, it's a guessing game. Once you get passed rank #90, you're unlikely to get in. The lowest ranked HOFer on this list of 250 players is Calvin Murphy at 205. There are only 4 HOFers ranked lower than 150.


Chris Webber - ranked 80th highest all time with a .7295 HOF probability. The only player above him who is eligible and not in the HOF is Jo Jo White. Ahead of guys like Mourning and Dikembe who some think are locks.

Rasheed Wallace - ranked 209th with a .0361 HOF probability. Won't and shouldn't get in.

Chauncey Billups - ranked 132nd with a .2144 HOF probability. Probably only consideration is the Finals MVP but likely won't make it.

Marc Jackson - unless I missed him, he's not in the top 250 players most likely to get in based on the formula.

Dikembe Mutombo - ranked 214th with a .0328 HOF probability. I could see him getting in more as a "contributor" than a "player" for his humanitarian acts as an NBA ambassador. I don't think he qualifies as a player.

Alonzo Mourning - ranked 106th with a .4723 HOF probability. I think 2006 helped him even though he was a back-up center and role player. Otherwise, I don't think he'd have a chance.

Robert Horry - not in the top 250 based on this formula.

Tracy McGrady - ranked 85th with a .6875 HOF probability. The modern perception of him by fans is much different from his actual statistical perception for the HOF. If he gets in, there will be plenty of people who will disagree with it, especially because of the playoff futility of the teams he's played for. But there's a far greater chance for him to get in than everyone else on the list other than his cousin. But I'm one of those who don't think he should get in either.

Grant Hill - ranked 111th with a .4405 HOF probability. Would rank higher if his college career was included.

Vince Carter - ranked 65th with .8628 HOF probability. A lot of what I said about T-Mac goes for Vince. But I think Vince could make it the same way Dominique did, over time with people appreciating his numbers and focusing less on what happened with his departure in Toronto and his inability to help teams get better later in his career. I initially said he wouldn't get in, but looking how highly he ranks statistically all time, I'm reconsidering that opinion.

Here are a couple other interesting names on the list and where they rank based on the formula they used.

Manu Ginobili - ranked 154th with a .1314 HOF probability. Doesn't take into consideration his international career.

Reggie Miller - ranked 190th with a .0553 HOF probability. Since there's a thread about him, thought I'd include him.

Jamstone with the goods tbh.

It does however seem that like many of the other formulas that are around today, it kind of favors strong offensive numbers...I dont think defensive specialists like Deke, Zo, and Big Ben would have any chance if we go by the formula. Since ppg which was not their strength are a key part of the formula, while bpg arent considered at all. Interesting seeing how the other more offensive-minded players stack up against each other though.

[FkLA]

Deke is far from a sure thing as a player.

I think Ben Wallace has a better chance than Dikembe.

then that means Ben Wallace would probably get in too.

I know Ben has his share of DPOYs as well but I dont think he has the accolades JMark brought up for Deke's case...he also cant compare with Deke's longevity and Id also bring up the difference in the eras. Deke played when the center pos ion was extremely compe ive and held his own. Add his humanitarian efforts and I think its pretty certain that he'll get in.

Starting to lean towards Hill getting in as well...6-7 yrs as a superstar+two gold medals+two national championships is pretty hard to ignore.

[TampaDude]

With 2 mvps, Nash is a lock.

I'm pretty sure every player who has won even just one MVP who is HOF eligible is in.

^ this

Nash is a LOCK for the HOF. You're on crack if you think he doesn't get in, ring or no ring.

[JamStone]

Good point (edit: in response to post #79).

But I guess offense, particularly scoring, is and always has been considered among the biggest factors. Guys like Mark Eaton and Michael Cooper and Alvin Robertson and Sidney Moncrief aren't even on the radar for the HOF. Neither will Bruce Bowen. Neither will Marcus Camby, but we all know he a faux defender anyway so that's a good thing.

Zo might have had a chance if he stayed healthy because he was also a solid offensive producer in his prime.

Deke and Ben Wallace are very unique cases and it will be interesting to see if they get in when they are eligible. The league really hasn't had many other guys like them who dominated that much defensively. As I said it earlier, I think Dikembe has a better shot as a contributor for his humanitarian acts around the world while representing the NBA. The obvious advantage Ben Wallace has over Deke is that he was the anchor and heart and soul of a championship team. He also anchored one of the best defensive teams in the history of the league. He also has a couple distinctly impressive career accomplishments. He's one of five players to lead the league in both rebounding and blocked shots. The other three were Hakeem, Kareem, and Bill Walton and then later Dwight Howard. He's also one of I believe only six players to have ac ulated 10,000 career rebounds, 2,000 career blocks, and 1,000 career steals. The other five are Hakeem, David Robinson, Kareem, Patrick Ewing, and Robert Parish, all HOFers.

But I do agree with you that the formula basketball reference uses does not really account for players like Dikembe and Ben. Either would be examples of HOF exceptions, not under the normal standards of HOF players.

[JamStone]

I know Ben has his share of DPOYs as well but I dont think he has the accolades JMark brought up for Deke's case...he also cant compare with Deke's longevity and Id also bring up the difference in the eras. Deke played when the center pos ion was extremely compe ive and held his own. Add his humanitarian efforts and I think its pretty certain that he'll get in.

Read my post above. The biggest distinction is that Ben Wallace helped lead a team to a championship while Deke did not. Also, the 2003-04 Pistons might have been the best defensive team in the history of the league and Ben anchored it. I mentioned a couple of other tidbits that distinguish Ben Wallace as a player. Also, perhaps not a real consideration, but also realize that Ben dominated in the defensive categories that centers generally do as basically a 6'7 center. HOF voters might not consider that, but it's something of note.

[Blake]

Deke played when the center pos ion was extremely compe ive and held his own. Add his humanitarian efforts and I think its pretty certain that he'll get in.

interesting how many people put an emphasis on his humanitarian efforts.

[Blake]

just curious, anyone have a list of players that got in on their college basketball career alone?

[JMarkJohns]

I've long had an issue with the HOF monitor equation because most major awards don't factor in, neither do 2nd and 3rd team selections or All-Star nominations.

They need to revamp it to include all these honors, albeit to a lesser extent than the honors they do include.

[mardigan]

Vince Carter - Not happening. He could have if he stayed in Toronto and lead Toronto deep into the playoffs for a few years in a row (which is entirely possible given how much the East sucked in the early 2000s), but instead, he chose to pout, went on to the Nets and Magic to become the 2nd/3rd banana.

I think Vince will get in no problem. He will end up hanging around the top 30 all time in scoring for awhile, and I don't see how a top 30 scorer doesn't get in, even without the other accomplishments to back it up.

[LnGrrrR]

then that means Ben Wallace would probably get in too.

I don't think I'd mind that too much, tbh. I'm sure there's people on the offensive side who were a complete liability on the defensive end that are in the HoF, after all. I don't think one side is necessarily more important than the other.

[LILCOOK]

mourning won a le and was a big reason of it bc of his play during the mavs heat series. he basically made shaq a bench player in that series.

i think you gotta put in mourning in there.

[HarlemHeat37]

When I said Mutombo should be a lock in the HOF, I meant IMO, since he obviously isn't even nearly a lock by their standards, especially since offense is always rewarded ahead of defense..it should also be noted that unlike Ben Wallace, Mutombo was never a complete liability on the offensive end..in his prime, he was decent at creating his own shot in the post, and he wasn't a liability on the FT line..

- Mutombo was the first player to win more than 2 DPOYs..he set the standard, despite playing in an era that had arguably the best group of defensive big men in NBA history..

- Mutombo's career overlapped with Shaq, Olajuwon, Robinson and Ewing..it's difficult to build up accolades, when you have compe ion of that nature..

- Mutombo has longevity in his favor..he was an elite defensive player deep into his 30s, and was still one of the better defensive Cs in the NBA in his late 30s..

- JMark already pointed out his accolades..

- Mutombo was the best player on many playoff teams, but most notably, the Denver team that upset the #1 seed Sonics, which should count for something IMO..he averaged 6 blocks per game during that series, one of the highest marks for a series, in NBA history..

- His humanitarian work will help..image definitely counts for something IMO, especially when you're a borderline player..

[redzero]

@ Horry deserving to be in the HoF.

[HarlemHeat37]

The HOF monitor is just the formula to predict which players get in, which is based on the admissions from many years ago..it's not a gauge of which players should get it, but it's a decent predictor, based on past admissions/omissions..it should definitely be updated though, IMO..it's also too reliant on championship success, and it doesn't effectively weigh longevity..


Webber's prime is remembered fondly, due to the popularity of the Kings, and his overall and possibly unique skill set when he entered the NBA IMO..his peak didn't last long enough, he was always hurt, he doesn't have the accolades, and more importantly, he was a playoff choker..if he had peaked for a longer amount of time, then maybe, otherwise, I don't think he should get in..


Ben Wallace, like Mutombo, is very debatable, especially since he was an offensive liability..however, he was the best player on an unexpected le team, he's the only guy(other than Mutombo) to rack up DPOYs at the rate in which he has amassed them, he's a multiple time All-Star..

Wallace's playoff run in 2003-2004 was disgusting..the Pistons were 31 points per/100 poss better with Ben Wallace on the floor, which is the highest number of any player since this stat was released(in the early 2000s), only Lebron has been close to matching it..

[LILCOOK]

robert horry will prob go in as one of the best role players in nba history and being deadly from 3.

[hitmanyr2k]

Chris Webber - Borderline
Rasheed Wallace - No
Chauncey Billups - No
Marc Jackson - No
Dikembe Mutombo - Yes
Alonzo Mourning - Borderline
Robert Horry - NO!!
Tracy McGrady - No
Grant Hill - Borderline, factoring in college career
Vince Carter - No

[baseline bum]

Might sound crazy, but I think upsetting the Sonics in the first round is big for Deke. Him on the ground clutching the ball after taking Seattle down in their building is one of the iconic moments in NBA history.



Plus, you gotta factor in him being one of the most feared shotblockers in the game from 1991 to 2008; just ridiculous longevity. I think Mutombo is a mortal lock for the hall.

[Killakobe81]

Might sound crazy, but I think upsetting the Sonics in the first round is big for Deke. Him on the ground clutching the ball after taking Seattle down in their building is one of the iconic moments in NBA history.



Plus, you gotta factor in him being one of the most feared shotblockers in the game from 1991 to 2008; just ridiculous longevity. I think Mutombo is a mortal lock for the hall.

Iconic moment has only happened twice I think we maybe due for a third entry ...

All kidding aside I think he gets in ... not sure he is a lock though ...

[JMarkJohns]

I know the Fab Four no longer technically exists, but Webber was the epicenter of a shock wave felt throughout basketball for the next two decades. He's in. Unless they are stupid, he's in.

[baseline bum]

Wallace's playoff run in 2003-2004 was disgusting..the Pistons were 31 points per/100 poss better with Ben Wallace on the floor, which is the highest number of any player since this stat was released(in the early 2000s), only Lebron has been close to matching it..

Out of curiosity, what were they for him the next year in the playoffs? I remember lots of Pistons fans talking about how he fell off a bit that year, but I hated his ass for the way he could pressure the Spurs guards in the backcourt that year. How many bigmen can do that? I still have nightmares about him and Hunter destroying Beno Udrih every time he brought the ball up the floor.

[baseline bum]

Iconic moment has only happened twice I think we maybe due for a third entry ...

Nah, I think you guys are too far back to catch San Antonio for that 1-seed. Maybe a repeat of a 7 over a 2?

[Blake]

- His humanitarian work will help..image definitely counts for something IMO, especially when you're a borderline player..

just curious, what other HOFer has humanitarian on his resume?

[Blake]

Grant Hill - Borderline, factoring in college career

what other player is in because they factored in college career?