The 10 Most Important Games Remaining On the Schedule

[GSH]

I didn't see this thread when I posted the info below. Maybe it's worth re-posting here, since you could make a case that there are really just two games left with extra significance.

THE big game is March 18 against the Mavs. If the Spurs win that one, it would be the equivalent of a two-game swing in the standings, because it would guarantee the Spurs the tie-breaker. So the Mavs would have to win 1 more game to finish with the #1 seed in the West.

If you assume a Spurs victory against Dallas, it is the equivalent of having an 8 game lead with 24 to play. (7 actual games, plus the tiebreaker.) That's pretty damned close to insurmountable.

BUT... if you assume that the Spurs lose that one, it would give us a 5 game lead with 24 to play. PLUS it would give the Mavs the possibility of winning a tiebreaker - so it could be the equivalent of just a 4 game lead with 24 to play. That is definitely not insurmountable.

The one other important game is March 31, against Boston, for similar reasons. If the Spurs lose that one, it would guarantee Boston a tiebreaker, should the two teams finish with the same record.

By beating both Dallas and Boston, the Spurs could pretty much wrap up the best record by going just 14-9 (.609) the rest of the way. Boston would have to go 23-3, or Dallas would have to go 23-1. In other words - win those two games and the Spurs can just about coast to HCA throughout the playoffs.

That makes those two games so important, the Spurs ought to be playing them like the prison team from The Longest Yard.

[Rummpd]

Last nights win was huge as it was the kind of team Spurs might have lost in previous years and the refs were horrible and at times Spurs did not match the Thunder effort but still won.

Spurs will go 16 and 9m (63 and 10) or 17 and 8 (64 and 18) so the rest is probably irrelevant as no team is probably going to have more than 62 wins but per above beating Dallas would be huge anyway and IMO splitting the other games: 2 against Heat, 1 Boston and 1st against LAL gets them over the top to the HCA.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds has Spurs with about a 93% chance of hanging onto the HCA in the West

Current simulation with range he has for each has:

Spurs 64 (54-72)
Heat 60 (50-67)
Celtics 59 (48-67)
Mavs 57 (46-65)
Bulls 56 (46-65)
LAL 55 47-63)

Most likely LAL and Mavs will both win IMO about 58 games but I could see the Mavs with their more favorable schedule (only thing LAL has going for it is less BBs) winning 61 and the Heat could get to 62 win area.

If Spurs get to 63-64 they should lock it up but it might get close near the end - and I would love to have the Spurs lock up HCA all the way through before the back to back starting with the LAL on the 2nd to last game of the year.

[hater]

next up Miami

[hater]

this will be a good meter of how we progress rest of the season.

IMO,
Spurs go 7-3 or better: West AND league is locked up
Spurs go 6-4: West is locked up but the league not
Spurs go 5-5: We might not get the West, goes down to the wire
Spurs go 4-5: Spurs end up 2nd
Spurs go 3-7 or worse: Spurs end up 2nd or 3rd in the West

again, the magic number is 7

mmm not looking good. we are 2-2 with 6 games to go.

March 18: At Dallas Mavericks
March 23: At Denver Nuggets
March 25: At Portland Trail Blazers
March 31: Boston Celtics
April 12: At Los Angeles Lakers
April 13: At Phoenix Suns

Given our tough as schedule I don't know if we gonna lock up the league anymore. And the mavs game just got 10x more important.

next up mavs. Whoever wins, that win is worth 2 games...

[703 Spurz]

mmm not looking good. we are 2-2 with 6 games to go.

March 18: At Dallas Mavericks
March 23: At Denver Nuggets
March 25: At Portland Trail Blazers
March 31: Boston Celtics
April 12: At Los Angeles Lakers
April 13: At Phoenix Suns

Given our tough as schedule I don't know if we gonna lock up the league anymore. And the mavs game just got 10x more important.

next up mavs. Whoever wins, that win is worth 2 games...

Well Dallas still has to play: @NO and vs NYK on a B2B, vs LAL, @POR, vs SA, @UTH and @PHX on a B2B, @LAL on the 2nd night of a B2B, @POR on the 2nd night of a B2B, vs DEN, and vs PHX.

Those are just the difficult games. They could easily drop 3 of those which means if they did, they'd have at least 20 losses. The Spurs would need to finish 12-7 to secure the division.

[703 Spurz]

LA still has to play: @MIA, @DAL, vs ORL, vs POR, vs PHX, vs NO, vs DAL (all on a 7 game homestand), @UTH, vs DEN, vs UTH, @POR, vs OKC, and vs SA (@SAC on last B2B of season).

They're a bit further back than the Spurs are and have played two more games so far. Should the Spurs win their next two, they're up 7 in the loss column. LA would have to finish even better than Dallas to win the conference, at least with the No.1 seed.

[hater]

yes but we lose to Dallas and the West is going down to the wire most definitely. which means no rest for our starters, etc, etc.

[Lebowski Brickowski]

We don't play the fakers on March 16th. wth?

edit: oh, i guess she meant March 6th. I didn't see the dateline earlier.

[tdunk21]

we play lakers 5 times this year?

[John Basedow]

LA is not winning the #1 seed in the West this year...too far back with too little to play. I do expect them to overlap Dallas for #2 though. No matter, winning one game in San Antonio is a piece of cake for the 3-time defending WC champs

[John Basedow]

we play lakers 5 times this year?

No, just 4

[tdunk21]

LA is not winning the #1 seed in the West this year...too far back with too little to play. I do expect them to overlap Dallas for #2 though. No matter, winning one game in San Antonio is a piece of cake for the 3-time defending WC champs

u try very hard....work on those trollin skills and come back....coz u sound stupid...

[John Basedow]

u try very hard....work on those trollin skills and come back....coz u sound stupid...

Why do I need to work on them when:

A. What I said was factual (unless of course some other team won the West the last 3 years) and

B. You follow me around like a lapdog and end up getting trolled in multiple threads as a result of it.


Good one, scro

[hater]

this will be a good meter of how we progress rest of the season.

IMO,
Spurs go 7-3 or better: West AND league is locked up
Spurs go 6-4: West is locked up but the league not
Spurs go 5-5: We might not get the West, goes down to the wire
Spurs go 4-5: Spurs end up 2nd
Spurs go 3-7 or worse: Spurs end up 2nd or 3rd in the West

again, the magic number is 7

damn, sometimes I scare myself. This is pretty much spot on

we are currently 3-3. We need 2 more wins to lock up West.
March 25: At Portland Trail Blazers
March 31: Boston Celtics
April 12: At Los Angeles Lakers
April 13: At Phoenix Suns


again, as I said recently it would not be so bad to fall to #2 anyway...

[in2deep]

I don't think anybody saw the lakers coming.