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Pruiti is excellent. Thanks for posting this.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...articleid=1550
This guy Sebastien Pruiti writes great stuff about nuts and bolts of the game at nbaplaybook.com.
Relevant to the SA forum because he theorizes this defensive change is aimed at thwarting our P+R attack.
Pruiti is excellent. Thanks for posting this.
He basically says they won't have their bigs hedge as much because they're more willing to give up the open mid-range J rather than the drive to the bucket and it keeps their perimeter defenders from rotating away from 3 point shooters. I wonder what folks here think -- is there a solution other than Manu, TP, and Hill simply making their mid-range shots? Ideas on what SA can do to counteract this approach?
Great article. Really want to see what Pop does to counter this the next time.
Finley !
good article
That's a good strategy as it renders Bonner (in particular) and RJ (a little less so) useless on offense. Parker, Manu and Hill are not great mid-range shooters. The only Spur with a nice mid-range is probably Neal, but he doesn't really do pick and roll.
If the 3pt shooters are taken out of the picture, then TP and Manu will run themselves ragged trying to do all the scoring in the half-court offense.
Neal is hands down the best mid range jump shooter on this team. He is the best option to counter this. I would say Tony hitting his mid-range is just as important because if Tony is going, there is no way Fischer or Blake can defend him. That will spread the floor and force the bigs to come out.
hoopdata.com is a great site to look at for how guys shoot from certain distances. Here's SA's data http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.as...11&gp=0&mins=0
Looks like Hill and Manu are pretty solid at 47% from 10-15 feet and TP's at about 37. If you go 16-23 feet, Hill 35%, Manu 37%, TP 39%. Those guys are the primary ball handlers on the P+R, so the numbers are ok, not great, but ok.
Maybe this type of D could make Hill more effective because he seems better and the pick and pop rather than hitting the roll man (collective eye roll) or kicking out. As always with George, I think if he's confident and decisive and just says to himself "these guys are leaving me open jumpers, I can hit these all day", then I think he can be pretty effective if left open for mid range shots.
If Neal runs the pick and roll, the Lakers will simply change it up and hard show. If they don't, that will leave Neal open for a three.
They would force Neal to put it on the floor instead of taking jump shots.
I think if the Spurs were running the P+R for Neal, the Lakers would come out and hedge because of his mid-range prowess. He's not as good, I think, at hitting the roll man or the three point shooter.
The reason this strategy won't stop us is that Tony and Manu will go at Bynum and get him in foul trouble quickly. If everybody stays on their man we'll kill them in the paint on most nights. Lay ups usually have a much higher accuracy % than threes.
Perhaps the way to counter this is to only play Bonner when two of the Lakers' three best bigs (Bynum/Gasol/Odom) are off the floor.
While the Spurs chuck up a lot of threes, the starting lineup isn't that dangerous in that department. Ginobili is streaky, and Jefferson wants to use the thread of the 3 to open up driving lanes. It's really the bench that relies on the 3.
The "soft show" is useful in not letting the ballhandler get to the rim, but can be exploited in a side PnR situation. Let's say we have Parker and Duncan vs. Fisher and Bynum. If Bynum does the soft show on Parker after the pick, then Duncan should be able to get in front of Fisher and beat him to the rim, forcing Bynum to turn around and help. If not, Gasol (covering Bonner in the corner) has to help, giving Bonner the open shot. Bynum's help would allow Parker an open shot, or enough confusion under the basket to find an open shooter if another defender helps.
We'll see. Bynum seemed possessed and did a pretty good job stifling the penetration last weekend, but it was just one game and Tony and Manu are pretty good at drawing fouls.
still probably transition O might be the best O vs LA
I'm thinking if help doesn't come for Tim, meanwhile, he gets to increase his ppg. This, in the end, won't work so great if Tim can make his shots. They were betting against it, correctly, in the last game. Let's hope it burns them in the end. We will need to aggressively box Bynum out throughout the game.
Obviously Pop is thinking about this, and definetly he won't show his cards during the regular season. The way I see it is , you can alwasys mix things up to be less predictable. For instance more and more they won't use the man Bynum is guarding for the pick. (i.e Odom won't be as big a cover in the paint) . 2 you can disguise the pick and roll and run handoffs instead. Remember for the Lakers to cover the pick and roll this way, Bynum and company need to know it is coming to be in the position to cover it the way they want to.
So basically I'm sure the spurs have counters and are just too smart and will run variations. Its all about adjustments
For some reason i can't see this page, my browser keeps crashing everytime I try to load it...Am I the only one this is happening to?
How about if timmy slips the screen, moves towards the rim forcing byunm to have to block him out while parker beats his man and heads towards the rim? Bynum would have to make a decision on who to guard and parker would have to decide between taking a layup/teardrop or dishing it off to timmy.
If help D does come then he has someone else to pass it to.
Also if they run the p/r close to the baseline timmy can jet along the baseline while parker goes through the paint. It makes for an easier passing angle, plus Help d can only come from one side when you run this along the baseline.
There's more to it than this and coaches aren't wont to reveal what cards they have until playoff time. Let's just say that if this wrinkle is all that it takes to stop the Spurs then...what's the point with having the most complex playbook in the NBA?
Adjustments will be made. It's not like Bonner can't shoot midrange J's, it's just that his role is to shoot them from behind the arc. If Pop implements a lineup with Gary, Manu, and Matt, along with McDyess & Tim...offensively, that'll be tough to stop, but defensively, they have to compete their asses off, especially Matt.
is camping in the paint for 12 seconds part of that D.
Bull . He was a PG at the start of his college career, and I've seen him throw a pass over his shoulder from about 5 feet out to Bonner out deep beyond the 3 point arc, probably a 21 foot pinpoint pass.
My guess is that the Spurs will do nothing about it for the next meeting, which will likely be meaningless. Why show your playoff hand?
They'll have to do something for the playoffs, though, and it might be double picks at the foul line. That gives us fits when other teams do it to us, and I think it would either draw the other big out, or make the pick SO WIDE that Fish can't get around it, and it becomes Tony going to the rim against a shotblocker. If the Laker shotblocker attacks, you can throw the teardrop. It also may draw in a wing to help protect the rim, and open up a trey on the perimeter.
I don't think this pnr defense can be effective if the spurs know they are throwing it at them.
They shoot good from midrange, and with Gasol covering Bonner on the corner either Ginobili or Parker can attack Bynum and take him to the rim, surely Bynum will make a lot of blocks, but he will also be in foul trouble by the end of the first as Manu and TP are great drawing fouls.
You can also hit duncan an let him go one-on-one with a stepping back Bynum, to me, the best aspect of this kind of defense is that when teams are structured to do ONE thing off the pick, they get surprised by a different defense, but once you expect it the effect it can have is as good as any defense.
Actually why not pick and pop with Duncan/Dice ? If Bynum is going stay in the box, then Dice and Duncan are very capable of hitting that uncontested mid range
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