Why the Lakers won't be able to beat the Spurs in the playoffs

[DeadlyDynasty]

All teams being healthy, the Lakers take this in 6. Too much length...and not just situational length, all 3 bigs can play both sides of the court effectively.

[HarlemHeat37]

Spurs will need to:

- Control the transition game..Spurs have been in the top 5-10 all season long, Lakers are one of the worst in the league..Spurs have to get out and run, Lakers are just an average team at defending in transition..if LA controls the tempo, Spurs are in trouble..

- Duncan will need to play at a borderline All-Star level..he doesn't have to be a star player for the Spurs to win, but he has to put up around 15-10 for the Spurs to beat LA..

- Dominate the perimeter game..this is the most important key, obviously..in the last game, the Lakers' perimeter players made the majority of their outside shots, and they completely outplayed the Spurs' perimeter players..if this happens, Lakers would win the series in 5..it's their weak link, it should always be exploited..Jefferson in particular would need to step up, since Kobe doesn't play D very often..

- Spurs bench needs to outplay LA's bench..Spurs' bench has more talent, they have to play like it, especially from long range..


I was away for a few days after the last LA-SA game..I checked out some of the reactions here, I was surprised by most of the hyperbole..Lakers controlled the boards at around the same rate as the 2nd game between these 2 teams(the McDyess tip-in game), so that wasn't the main issue for the Spurs loss..

It was pretty obvious that LA was treating it as a must-win, while the Spurs played with no energy, but that also wasn't the primary reason for the loss..

The 1st half was the only meaningful portion of this game, for obvious reasons..during the 1st half, the Lakers shot 45% from 15 feet or longer..the Lakers usually shoot 37% on 36 shots per game, from 15 feet or longer, including 3s..in this game, the Lakers were so hot that they took 34 shots from this range, in the 1st half alone, 1 off from their usual average for an entire game..

If LA is making outside jump shots, there isn't a team that will beat them..more often than not, they won't be making their outside jump shots at such a high rate..Spurs probably would have lost either way, based on the energy level of both teams, but the score was an aberration..

Send help against LA's bigs, play with a lot of energy, make them kick it out and force their perimeter players to win the game..if they do, you live with it, because nobody is stopping their bigs(other than Kobe not passing them the ball)..

[Vito Corleone]

All teams being healthy, the Lakers take this in 6. Too much length...and not just situational length, all 3 bigs can play both sides of the court effectively.

Actually the Laker bigs are still soft, not sure the Spurs can take advantage of this but it is obvious they are not physical and can be muscled.

I expect to see Duncan Manu and Dice play extended minutes in a Lakers series, but I'm not completely sold that it will be the Lakers the Spurs face in WCF. Dallas can beat them, Dirk will put a lot of the Lakers front court in foul trouble. Of all the teams in the WC Dallas poses the biggest matchup problem for the Lakers.

[11:10]

Actually the Laker bigs are still soft, not sure the Spurs can take advantage of this but it is obvious they are not physical and can be muscled.

lets be real, if the Lakers bigs are soft what does that make the spurs bigs?

[TD 21]

Spurs will need to:

- Control the transition game..Spurs have been in the top 5-10 all season long, Lakers are one of the worst in the league..Spurs have to get out and run, Lakers are just an average team at defending in transition..if LA controls the tempo, Spurs are in trouble..

- Duncan will need to play at a borderline All-Star level..he doesn't have to be a star player for the Spurs to win, but he has to put up around 15-10 for the Spurs to beat LA..

- Dominate the perimeter game..this is the most important key, obviously..in the last game, the Lakers' perimeter players made the majority of their outside shots, and they completely outplayed the Spurs' perimeter players..if this happens, Lakers would win the series in 5..it's their weak link, it should always be exploited..Jefferson in particular would need to step up, since Kobe doesn't play D very often..

- Spurs bench needs to outplay LA's bench..Spurs' bench has more talent, they have to play like it, especially from long range..


I was away for a few days after the last LA-SA game..I checked out some of the reactions here, I was surprised by most of the hyperbole..Lakers controlled the boards at around the same rate as the 2nd game between these 2 teams(the McDyess tip-in game), so that wasn't the main issue for the Spurs loss..

It was pretty obvious that LA was treating it as a must-win, while the Spurs played with no energy, but that also wasn't the primary reason for the loss..

The 1st half was the only meaningful portion of this game, for obvious reasons..during the 1st half, the Lakers shot 45% from 15 feet or longer..the Lakers usually shoot 37% on 36 shots per game, from 15 feet or longer, including 3s..in this game, the Lakers were so hot that they took 34 shots from this range, in the 1st half alone, 1 off from their usual average for an entire game..

If LA is making outside jump shots, there isn't a team that will beat them..more often than not, they won't be making their outside jump shots at such a high rate..Spurs probably would have lost either way, based on the energy level of both teams, but the score was an aberration..

Send help against LA's bigs, play with a lot of energy, make them kick it out and force their perimeter players to win the game..if they do, you live with it, because nobody is stopping their bigs(other than Kobe not passing them the ball)..

Good analysis.

It was a law of averages game. The Spurs had won 3 straight against the Lakers, 22 straight at home and just came off a game where they played out of their minds offensively against an elite team. The Lakers, meanwhile, were playing their best ball of the season and clearly wanted the game more.

You shouldn't have been surprised about the hyperbole around here, nor amongst the media. It was predictable. The majority are convinced the Spurs can't beat the Lakers in a series and that there's some massive gulf between the two teams. So for all of them to finally see the Lakers not only beat the Spurs, but beat them convincingly, they felt like it justified their sentiments.

Spurs fans have less confidence in their team than any other elite team's fans I've ever seen. They can all pretend it's because of the defense or the rebounding or the lack of size or the age of some of the top players, etc., the reality is they were no different from 03-08.

[2Cleva]

Playoffs aren't about law of averages, they are about matchups.

Lots of outside factors play into regular season games that aren't a factor come playoff time.