Meltdown.

[Agloco]

My point? That as these nuclear plants have shown, doesn't always work the way its supposed to. I would have thought that was an obvious point.

These nuclear plants were designed to withstand an earthquake of "X" magnitude. They did just that, shutting down as they should.

The tsunami was the thing that screwed up the cooling mechanisms.

[RandomGuy]

Officials say Ukraine is likely to spend billions of euros on confinement upkeep costs before it finds a way to bury the reactor components, perhaps under layers of underground granite rocks. Even then the area around the plant will remain unsuitable for thousands of years. Asked how long before people can settle down and grow crops at the site, Chernobyl power plant director Ihor Gramotkin said: "At least 20,000 years."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110315/...clearchernobyl

I would sell any stocks that have any exposure to Fukushima, or in companies that plan to build reactors any time soon.

All of this will be revisited.

[MannyIsGod]

I would think it would have been common sense to plan for the tsunami on a plant in such a location.

[Agloco]

I would think it would have been common sense to plan for the tsunami on a plant in such a location.

They did, it was just bigger than they had anticipated.

That's the problem with "preparing" for disasters. It really makes me chuckle then I hear my fellow scientists say that they've got we worst case scenario all worked out.

Yeah right. At the end of the day we have no clue what might happen.

[LnGrrrR]

3 comical pathetic re ed things the damn Japanese govmt/nuclear company keep repeating:
1) Radiation levels dropped as the day went by - Of course, it just means the radiation has spread out to the atmosphere
2) Stay indoors - that is really gonna help??
3) The wind is blowing away from Japan -

Depends on the type of radiation. If it's alpha or beta, staying indoors would help. If it's gamma, then no, unless your home happens to be a bunker.

[cheguevara]

do you really think the nuclear plants in Cali are ready for the BIG ONE that most scientists say has 99% chance of happening in the next 20 years?

nope. With the right lobbying anything can get done.

[Agloco]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110315/...clearchernobyl

I would sell any stocks that have any exposure to Fukushima, or in companies that plan to build reactors any time soon.

All of this will be revisited.

Yep yep.

Is there an investment that lets you short entire markets (like the Nikkei)?

[boutons_deux]

"If there's a complete loss of containment [and thus the water inside], it can catch fire. There's a huge amount of radioactivity inside – far more than is inside the reactors. The damaged reactors are less likely to spread the same vast amounts of radiation that Chernobyl did, but a spent-fuel pool fire could very well produce damage similar to or even greater than Chernobyl."

You have to ask, what kind of numbskull would put a waste “pond” for spent fuel right above the reactor of a nuclear plant, thus insuring that in the event of a meltdown, not only would the core of the reactor blow up into the environment, but also all of the spent fuel from prior years? All that "Six Sigma" quality culture stuff tauted at GE and they came up with this?

I don’t know. I heard about those waste “pools” in the past, and always assumed they were somewhere on the plant grounds away from the reactor itself, but now it turns out they put the damned things right in the line of fire of any meltdown.

http://www.truth-out.org/print/68465

[LnGrrrR]

According to this article: http://www.mysouthwestga.com/news/st...tate&id=592890

Some sailers off the coast of Japan experienced alpha and beta particle contamination.

He says there are two types of radioactive material, and the crew members in Japan were exposed to radioactive particles (alpha and beta) which resemble dust.

[Agloco]

Depends on the type of radiation. If it's alpha or beta, staying indoors would help. If it's gamma, then no, unless your home happens to be a bunker.

It reduces the radiation burden quite a bit actually, despite most of the radiation coming from gammas. Most of the isotopes found in a cloud like this will come to ground fairly quickly and stay outdoors.

Shielding isn't the only effective method of reducing radiation exposure. Time, distance and shielding all work. In the example of staying indoors, it's helping with the distance.

[CosmicCowboy]

Yep yep.

Is there an investment that lets you short entire markets (like the Nikkei)?

You are a little late. They have probably already taken the bulk of the hit.

[LnGrrrR]

It reduces the radiation burden quite a bit actually, despite most of the radiation coming from gammas. Most of the isotopes found in a cloud like this will come to ground fairly quickly and stay outdoors.

Shielding isn't the only effective method of reducing radiation exposure. Time, distance and shielding all work. In the example of staying indoors, it's helping with the distance.

Agloco, good point. I just was looking at the "shielding" aspect.

[MannyIsGod]

They did, it was just bigger than they had anticipated.

That's the problem with "preparing" for disasters. It really makes me chuckle then I hear my fellow scientists say that they've got we worst case scenario all worked out.

Yeah right. At the end of the day we have no clue what might happen.

The really bad thing is that this isn't the worst case scenario, IMO. I'd have to imagine that a 9+ quake on many of those faults is well within the realm of possibilities and many of those quakes can happen at very shallow depths.

I see nothing in this quake that should not have been seen as anything but inevitable. The tsunami heights were not unreasonable given historic tsunamis. I know what you're saying, but I just view this as inadequate engineering given the location of the plant.

[baseline bum]

do you really think the nuclear plants in Cali are ready for the BIG ONE that most scientists say has 99% chance of happening in the next 20 years?

nope. With the right lobbying anything can get done.

I thought the prediction was a 90% chance of a 7.0+ on the San Andreas in the next 40 years.

[Agloco]

According to this article: http://www.mysouthwestga.com/news/st...tate&id=592890

Some sailers off the coast of Japan experienced alpha and beta particle contamination.

Not surprising. All of these isotopes decay in various manners. You have iodine, cesium, etc.

Alphas are particularly dangerous if inhaled. They've got an RBE about 20x that of gammas. No more flights in that area for these guys.

One thing though. None of these reports ever give any numbers........ this is kinda meaningless without some context.

[LnGrrrR]

They did, it was just bigger than they had anticipated.

That's the problem with "preparing" for disasters. It really makes me chuckle then I hear my fellow scientists say that they've got we worst case scenario all worked out.

Yeah right. At the end of the day we have no clue what might happen.

And as I said upthread, no one actually builds the "worst-case scenario", because it costs way too much.

People end up preparing for the "Most realistic worst-case scenario" instead.

[Cry Havoc]

As long as they stay away from this they should be fine. That toilet water might taste yummy, but it makes you sick as .

[LnGrrrR]

Not an actual number, but at least some sort of metric in this Times article:

The U.S. Navy is no stranger to nuclear power. As of March 2010, the organization has operated 82 nuclear-powered ships with 103 reactors on ships and submarines. So when the tests confirmed that its team of 17 naval helicopter crew became exposed to almost a month's worth of nuclear radiation in just one hour– it knew what to do.

Read more: http://newsfeed.time.com/2011/03/15/...#ixzz1GgT1M000

(And, interesting note, that "Read more" part came automatically when I highlighted the text and copied.)

[cheguevara]

I thought the prediction was a 90% chance of a 7.0+ on the San Andreas in the next 40 years.

you are probably right.

[LnGrrrR]

As long as they stay away from this they should be fine. That toilet water might taste yummy, but it makes you sick as .

I was just thinking this morning about how many jokes were going to be made about Japan being the setting for the next Fallout game.

[LnGrrrR]

Oh hey, there is a number buried further down the article.

"The maximum potential radiation dose received by any ship's force personnel aboard USS RONALD REAGAN when it passed through the area was less than the radiation exposure received from about one month of exposure to natural background radiation from sources such as rocks, soil, and the sun, or less than 25 milliREM."

Read more: http://newsfeed.time.com/2011/03/15/...#ixzz1GgTbcNtV

[Wild Cobra]

I thought the prediction was a 90% chance of a 7.0+ on the San Andreas in the next 40 years.

I thought it was a 46% in 30 years.

The percentage doesn't really matter as it is a guess. The fact is that three of the four major placing in the "ring of fire" have had serious quakes. Just stands to reason there is a much higher probability San Andreas will go soon.

[Agloco]

The really bad thing is that this isn't the worst case scenario, IMO. I'd have to imagine that a 9+ quake on many of those faults is well within the realm of possibilities and many of those quakes can happen at very shallow depths.

I see nothing in this quake that should not have been seen as anything but inevitable. The tsunami heights were not unreasonable given historic tsunamis. I know what you're saying, but I just view this as inadequate engineering given the location of the plant.

Oh I agree with you. I'm not gonna pretend to be up to speed with the specifications of Japaneese nuclear power plants, but I know that here we prepare plants based on ground accelerations. As such, these sorts of phenomena are strong functions of the distance to the epicenter of the event as well as geologic constraints.

Understand though, that there's a logarithmic falloff in the likelihood of such an event based on the strength of the quake (ie a magnitude 8 is about 10 times more likely than a magnitude 9, etc etc.). You're basically playing the odds. No disrespect to the Japanese, but they crapped out on this one.

[Wild Cobra]

Oh hey, there is a number buried further down the article.

I heard someplace also the radiation was less that the output of coal power plants also. Maybe in increased over night, but that's a comment about a day or two old.

[Cry Havoc]

And NO, the coastal US plants are NOT prepared for anything this catastrophic. They probably wouldn't handle anything over a 7.