Meltdown.

[hater]

GlobalPost: Do these doses endanger their health, or are they below thresholds that would cause a problem?
The probability of these workers getting cancer is dramatically increasing, because the doses they receive in a day are higher than what they get in a year. For every 250 rem received, there will be a cancer. That’s pretty well defined. So if one person picks up 2.5 rem, for every hundred people, one of them will get a cancer. That’s just a statistical crapshoot.

so if this guy is for real if 1000 ppl pickup .25 rems 1 gets cancer

and if so if 100,000 ppl pickup .0025rems 1 gets cancer

[Agloco]

Oh hey, there is a number buried further down the article.

"The maximum potential radiation dose received by any ship's force personnel aboard USS RONALD REAGAN when it passed through the area was less than the radiation exposure received from about one month of exposure to natural background radiation from sources such as rocks, soil, and the sun, or less than 25 milliREM."

Ah, missed this.

Yeah, this is something to be cognizant of, but not something that should hamper relief efforts in the sort term.

The do need to be on top of each and every crewmembers total exposure though. For context, in gauging a radiation workers exposure: Here in the US we use a total of 5000 mrem as a total effective dose equivalent limit annually.

[Cry Havoc]

Japan crisis exceeds Three Mile Island, expert says; no-fly zone declared

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42084187...s-asiapacific/

I suspected as much a long time ago, but it's chilling to see it in print.

[LnGrrrR]

Ah, missed this.

Yeah, this is something to be cognizant of, but not something that should hamper relief efforts in the sort term.

The do need to be on top of each and every crewmembers total exposure though. For context, in gauging a radiation workers exposure: Here in the US we use a total of 5000 mrem as a total effective dose equivalent limit annually.

If anyone should know about radiation exposure besides experts, the military should. Heck, even the small amount I know comes from annual Chem/Nuke/Bio Warfare training.

They have already been talking about how crews that are in the area are going through decon lines.

[Cry Havoc]

"One reactor shield might be compromised; holes send radioactivity from used rods outside"

[Agloco]

GlobalPost: Do these doses endanger their health, or are they below thresholds that would cause a problem?
The probability of these workers getting cancer is dramatically increasing, because the doses they receive in a day are higher than what they get in a year. For every 250 rem received, there will be a cancer. That’s pretty well defined. So if one person picks up 2.5 rem, for every hundred people, one of them will get a cancer. That’s just a statistical crapshoot.

so if this guy is for real if 1000 ppl pickup .25 rems 1 gets cancer

and if so if 100,000 ppl pickup .0025rems 1 gets cancer

Yes and no. You have to include "on average", and even then there's a few qualifiers based on the exact dose/exposure rate.

The stochastic effects of radiation are really hard to quantify for obvious reasons (they're random after all). These models are based on limited data too. The exact effects are also a strong function of the dose rate and length of exposure.

We'd really need some more information about how long/fast each of those workers are being exposed.

[Agloco]

Japan crisis exceeds Three Mile Island, expert says; no-fly zone declared

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42084187...s-asiapacific/

I suspected as much a long time ago, but it's chilling to see it in print.

Chilling indeed. I heard one report of a 400 mrem reading. If that's the case, there bigger trouble than they're letting on. That's quite significant.

If anyone should know about radiation exposure besides experts, the military should. Heck, even the small amount I know comes from annual Chem/Nuke/Bio Warfare training.

They have already been talking about how crews that are in the area are going through decon lines.

I have not doubt that they're on top of this. Some of my colleagues are no doubt in the zone (or on their way) as we speak giving advice and reinforcing training on the fly.

If they remember what was taught (no one likes to listen to radiation safety and physics lectures though....) they'll be fine.

[CosmicCowboy]

Damn...talk about admitting you are ed...

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/03...ng-atmosphere/

Nuclear officials say they may seek U.S. and Japanese military help to spray water from helicopters into an overheating spent fuel storage pool at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant.
Tokyo Electric Power says it may use helicopters because of the risk of radiation contamination from approaching the pool directly. Air drops may also be more effective.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/03...#ixzz1GgaYgi6z

[LnGrrrR]

Our base wasn't named as an Incident Response Base, but I assume if goes down it might be all hands on deck.

[Cry Havoc]

I think we can pretty safely say that, monetarily speaking, the earthquake/tsunami/reactor are going to rank in the top 3 costliest disasters since we started record keeping, and may very well surpass both Katrina and Chernobyl. It's scary to think how much damage this will deal to the Japanese economy.

[Cry Havoc]

Our base wasn't named as an Incident Response Base, but I assume if goes down it might be all hands on deck.

I don't know if there are any preparations you could make, but if you can, I'd start making them. Hawaii (and Alaska) are obviously closer than any other US state by a wide margin. You guys could be in the pipe if things get really bad. Which appears to be happening.

[LnGrrrR]

I don't know if there are any preparations you could make, but if you can, I'd start making them. Hawaii (and Alaska) are obviously closer than any other US state by a wide margin. You guys could be in the pipe if things get really bad. Which appears to be happening.

Not really sure what we could do. We are on an island after all. And being in the military, I can't evacuate until we get an official order. (Of course, my wife and kid could evacuate in advance, they just wouldn't get paid unless they waited for the official order.)

[RandomGuy]

Yep yep.

Is there an investment that lets you short entire markets (like the Nikkei)?

Most probably a derivative of some sort. Some of the companies are traded in the US as well, offering a direct chance to short them.

I would start investing in US/Korean automakers.

In the cold hard calculous of finance, this event is probably going to HIGHLY disrupt Japanese car makers. The obvious beneficiary of that is anyone competing with them.

That and anything else the Japanese make.

Given that car buyers tend to stick with brands, this would mean a long-term shift.

[Cry Havoc]

Not really sure what we could do. We are on an island after all. And being in the military, I can't evacuate until we get an official order. (Of course, my wife and kid could evacuate in advance, they just wouldn't get paid unless they waited for the official order.)

Ah, I thought you were talking about getting called up to head over there.

I think we can safely classify this as at least a 6 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. If things deteriorate further, it's probably going to be pushing a 7.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interna...ar_Event_Scale

[Cry Havoc]

Most probably a derivative of some sort. Some of the companies are traded in the US as well, offering a direct chance to short them.

I would start investing in US/Korean automakers.

In the cold hard calculous of finance, this event is probably going to HIGHLY disrupt Japanese car makers. The obvious beneficiary of that is anyone competing with them.

That and anything else the Japanese make.

Given that car buyers tend to stick with brands, this would mean a long-term shift.

That's a really good idea. The entire economy of Japan could be pushed into a depression from this. Chernobyl seriously accelerated the fall of the Soviet Union.

[Agloco]

Damn...talk about admitting you are ed...

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/03...ng-atmosphere/

Nuclear officials say they may seek U.S. and Japanese military help to spray water from helicopters into an overheating spent fuel storage pool at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant.
Tokyo Electric Power says it may use helicopters because of the risk of radiation contamination from approaching the pool directly. Air drops may also be more effective.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/03...#ixzz1GgaYgi6z

Yeah, this is definitely not good.

[Agloco]

Our base wasn't named as an Incident Response Base, but I assume if goes down it might be all hands on deck.

Where are you at?

[LnGrrrR]

Ah, I thought you were talking about getting called up to head over there.

I think we can safely classify this as at least a 6 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. If things deteriorate further, it's probably going to be pushing a 7.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interna...ar_Event_Scale

Kinda sorta. Right now, our base isn't tasked. But if things go worse, we might be. With these kinds of events, it's hard to predict. If I do end up going (which is a very low likelihood right now), then I'll assume we'll be limited to certain shifts and decon our chem gear between them.

[LnGrrrR]

Where are you at?

Joint Base Pearl Harbor Hickam.

[Cry Havoc]

Kinda sorta. Right now, our base isn't tasked. But if things go worse, we might be. With these kinds of events, it's hard to predict. If I do end up going (which is a very low likelihood right now), then I'll assume we'll be limited to certain shifts and decon our chem gear between them.

Best of luck. I really hope you don't get sent over. Even with safety precautions, anything that deals with free radicals is nasty stuff.

[Wild Cobra]

I think we can pretty safely say that, monetarily speaking, the earthquake/tsunami/reactor are going to rank in the top 3 costliest disasters since we started record keeping, and may very well surpass both Katrina and Chernobyl. It's scary to think how much damage this will deal to the Japanese economy.

I agree with that on the cost factor. As for nuclear incident, I think it will go down as the fourth. Between Windscale and Three Mile island.

from The world’s worst nuclear accidents:

» Chernobyl, Soviet Union (now Ukraine), April 26, 1986

The No.4 reactor at the Chernobyl nuclear plant in the former Soviet Union exploded, causing the worst nuclear disaster in history. The explosion killed 30 people on the spot, released more than eight tons of highly radioactive material, contaminated 60,000 square km of land, and caused more than 3.2 million people to be affected by radiation.

» Kyshtym, Soviet Union (now Russia), Sept. 29, 1957

The cooling system failed, causing a non-nuclear explosion of dried waste. The Soviet government was forced to evacuate 10,000 people in the affected area after reports surfaced of people's skin literally falling off. The radiation is estimated to have directly caused the deaths of 200 people due to cancer.

» Windscale Fire, Great Britain, Oct. 10, 1957

A fire broke out, destroying the core and releasing a cloud of radioactive material. The sale of milk and other produces from nearby farms were banned for a month. 200 people later developed cancer and died from exposure to radiation.

» Three Mile Island, United States, March 28, 1979

The cooling system failed, causing a partial core meltdown. It was the United States’ worst nuclear accident; it forced the evacuation of at least 150,000 local residents.

» Tokaimura, Japan, Sept. 30, 1999

A batch of highly enriched uranium was wrongly operated in a precipitation tank, causing a radiation accident that killed two workers. Nearly 100 workers and local residents were hospitalized for exposure to radiation.

Considering people were already evacuated or dead from the area when the reactors started having problems, I think radiation related deaths will be minimal.

[Wild Cobra]

That's a really good idea. The entire economy of Japan could be pushed into a depression from this. Chernobyl seriously accelerated the fall of the Soviet Union.

I don't think this will be as serious of an economic hit for japan as you guys do. It's only a real small segment of their industry and population affected.

Hope I'm right, but know I could be wrong.

[Cry Havoc]

I agree with that on the cost factor. As for nuclear incident, I think it will go down as the fourth. Between Windscale and Three Mile island.

from The world’s worst nuclear accidents:


Considering people were already evacuated or dead from the area when the reactors started having problems, I think radiation related deaths will be minimal.

The French Nuclear committee has already rated this a 6 on the INES (passing both 3 Mile and Windscale) and have stated that it's second only to Chernobyl in terms of how devastating the effects are going to be. Though not much is known about Kyshtym, so that muddies things up a bit.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-...ccident-scale/

[Cry Havoc]

I don't think this will be as serious of an economic hit for japan as you guys do. It's only a real small segment of their industry and population affected.

Hope I'm right, but know I could be wrong.

Cleanup from radiation leaks is almost unrivaled in the expense it inflicts on the host nation. To say nothing of the fact that they have just lost a significant amount of power generation for their country that they are also going to have to replace.

[Wild Cobra]

The French Nuclear committee has already rated this a 6 on the INES (passing both 3 Mile and Windscale) and have stated that it's second only to Chernobyl in terms of how devastating the effects are going to be. Though not much is known about Kyshtym, so that muddies things up a bit.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-...ccident-scale/

I realize this. Didn't have those facts you just laid out, but came to a similar conclusion already, figuring it is definitely a top 3, possible 1st as time goes by.

That said, I think the Japanese have a better mindset for keeping this from impacting their economy as much as feared.

Depression... I say no, partially because they will have need to hire people for cleanups.