Reply With Quote
Orgasm
We shared our forecast for the Spurs in 2010-11. Now it's time to take a closer look at their roster. Here are my player scouting reports and '10-11 projections:
(Note: Projections are for players who played at least 500 minutes in the NBA or 250 minutes in the Euroleague in '09-10.)
STARTERS
TONY PARKER, PG
Projection: 20.6 pts, 3.3 reb, 7.2 ast per 40 min; 16.89 PER | Player card
• Super-quick point guard who excels at probing paint for layups and floaters.
• Much more a scorer than a pure point guard, and a below-average shooter.
• Solid defender with good quickness. Excels at pushing ball in transition.
Parker battled plantar fasciitis all season and obviously wasn't himself. His extra gear that lets him zip past opponents to the basket simply wasn't there. There were some positives if you looked hard enough -- he finally figured out how to draw some fouls, for instance -- but all told, the season was a major setback.
How major, you ask? Parker had the greatest PER decline of any player who played more than 1,000 minutes in both the 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons. Oddly enough, four of the top six players (Parker, Paul, Harris and Jameer Nelson) made the All-Star team in 2008-09. Top PER Declines, 2009-10 (Min. 1,000 minutes each season)
PlayerTeam2008-09 PER2009-10 PERChangeTony ParkerSA23.4716.49-6.98Chris PaulNO30.0423.74-6.30Zydrunas IlgauskasCle18.0311.99-6.04Rafer AlstonNJ-Mia13.808.26-5.54Devin HarrisNJ21.6516.28-5.37
Parker's projection is unusually pessimistic because the computer doesn't know he was hurting last season. That said, the outlook wouldn't be rosy in any case. He's a 28-year-old guard who depends on his quickness to score; those types of players typically have bumpy rides in their late 20s and early 30s.
MANU GINOBILI, SG
Projection: 20.2 pts, 5.7 reb, 6.1 ast per 40 min; 20.70 PER | Player card
• Daring, crafty lefty who takes odd angles to create contact and draw fouls.
• Handles and passes like a point guard; will hit set shot off catch or dribble.
• Quality defender with great reflexes, but reckless style is better in short bursts.
This is probably what we can expect from Ginobili going forward -- incredible bursts of production like he had in March, surrounded by fallow periods where he's too banged up to make his usual impact.
In the big picture, however, it's hard to argue with the net result -- Ginobili ranked second among shooting guards in PER, just ahead of some guy named Bryant. Of particular note was his ability to orchestrate the offense. Among non-point guards, only LeBron James boasted a higher pure point rating (see chart). Top Pure Point Rating Among Non-Point Guards
PlayerTeamPPRLeBron JamesCle5.83Manu GinobiliSA4.31Joe JohnsonAtl3.50Hedo TurkogluTor3.47Jason TerryDal3.42
The question is how often he'll be able to deliver those virtuoso performances. Ginobili missed seven games and was limited in several others; he's never played more than 77 games in a season. San Antonio has tried to conserve his output by playing him about 28 minutes a game off the bench. It's worked so far: At 32, he retains virtually all his peak value. Whether that remains the case going forward may determine how long the championship window stays open.
RICHARD JEFFERSON, SF
Projection: 15.5 pts, 5.2 reb, 2.4 ast per 40 min; 12.34 PER | Player card
• Athletic forward who loves to run right wing in transition and get to basket.
• Average at best as outside shooter, but can get shot off due to size and elevation.
• Strong right-handed driver but a shaky ball handler otherwise. Solid defender.
We tend to look for the complicated explanation in lieu of the simple one, and in Jefferson's case, the explanation is really simple: Athleticism-dependent wings tend to decline rapidly in their late 20s and early 30s. Jefferson is 30 years old and has lost some of his former elevation. While he might have better seasons than the one he had a year ago, it's unrealistic to expect his glory days from New Jersey.
Jefferson actually shot decently from the floor, he just wasn't able to create nearly as many shots as he used to. He'll probably improve his 3-point and free throw percentages, both of which fell well below his norms last season, but it's unlikely the overall player will be significantly more valuable than the one they had a year ago.
ANTONIO McDYESS, PF
Projection: 10.0 pts, 11.0 reb, 1.8 ast per 40 min; 11.91 PER | Player card
• Physical power forward can still leap, but now takes longer to gather himself.
• Reliable mid-range shooter who rarely posts up, but will crash offensive boards.
• Solid interior defender and rebounder, but struggles guarding perimeter.
At 35, McDyess finally seems to be on the descent. The Spurs stuck with him as the starter all season because of his ability to space the floor around Tim Duncan, but it's hard to imagine them repeating the drill after such an uninspiring first season in San Antonio.
On the flip side, McDyess hit his mid-range jumpers just like he always does. More than half his shots were long 2s, and he drained a solid 44.8 percent of them -- almost capturing the highest proportion in the league for the second straight season (see chart). Larger Percentage of Shots From Long 2 Distance (Min: 200 FGA; Source: NBA.com/hotspots
PlayerTeamPct.Carlos ArroyoMia.605Antonio McDyessDet.558Dante CunninghamPor.526Joe SmithAtl.479DeMarre CarrollMem.475
But he was 53rd at his position in turnover ratio, an inexcusably bad performance for a spot-up jump-shooter who rarely has to handle the ball. According to 82games.com, most of them were bad handles rather than offensive fouls or 3-second violations. Additionally, he drew only 57 free throw attempts the entire season, which helps explain the bad TS percentage.
TIM DUNCAN, C
Projection: 20.1 pts, 12.0 reb, 3.7 ast per 40 min; 21.75 PER | Player card
• Skilled, long-armed low-post operator who excels at bank shots from left block.
• Punishes double-teams with quick passes. Poor straight-on jump-shooter.
• Lateral movement has worsened, but length, smarts still make him plus defender.
Just in case you hadn't noticed that Duncan isn't the defensive force he used to be, the Suns drove the message home by running about 8,000 pick-and-rolls at him over the course of four games and forcing him to defend fast guards on switches.
Offensively, however, he's barely declined at all. Duncan's averages are very close to the peak numbers he posted in his second and third pro seasons, and the 34-year-old version turns the ball over much less frequently. He still ain't Mark Price at the line, but last season's 72.5 percent mark eliminated a lot of the incentive to hack him freely. He also sunk over 40 percent of his long 2s for a second straight season, mostly thanks to his mastery of the bank shot from the wing.
As with Ginobili, the Spurs continue to be extremely conservative with Duncan's minutes, and so far it's served them well. He played a career-low 31.3 minutes per game last season, and since his knees aren't getting any younger and he has an excellent backup in Tiago Splitter, we may see that number decline further.
KEY RESERVES
GEORGE HILL, G
Projection: 16.4 pts, 3.7 reb, 4.0 ast per 40 min; 14.48 PER | Player card
• Long-armed defender who can lock down opponents at either guard spot.
• Good 3-point shooter who can make runners, but gets out of control on drive.
• A 2 in a 1's body. Still needs work on handle, left hand and decision-making.
Hill may eventually take over as the Spurs' point guard, but he's not a distributor -- he placed only 58th among point guards in pure point rating. The good news is that he doesn't turn it over; he's just much more attuned to scoring.
He could become much better in that department. Hill made 39.9 percent of his 3s but had a below-average rate of 3-point attempts, so he could easily improve his TS percentage simply by altering his shot mix to include more 3s. Given the talent surrounding him, that shouldn't be hard, as he ought to have plentiful spot-up opportunities.
TIAGO SPLITTER, PF
Projection: 14.7 pts, 9.7 reb, 3.6 ast per 40 min; 14.13 PER | Player card
• Tough, physical, smart 7-footer who defends and draws fouls.
• Does most of his scoring on short hooks, but can distribute from high post.
• Not an elite athlete; merely average rebounder and can have trouble finishing.
Splitter's skill set makes him an obvious pick to play the backup center role, but the question is how well he can coexist as a fellow frontcourt starter with Tim Duncan. Splitter has enough skills to play off the ball in a manner similar to Fabricio Oberto, but Oberto was smaller and more mobile. Certainly the opening is there, but we'll have to see how Splitter and Duncan mesh on the court.
DeJUAN BLAIR, PF
Projection: 18.1 pts, 14.0 reb, 2.2 ast per 40 min; 19.03 PER | Player card
• Undersized big man with quickness, strength and insatiable zest for rebounds.
• Has no shooting range and few low post moves; just a finisher on offense.
• Lack of size problematic on defensive end, especially as a center.
Watching Blair makes me want to have my ACLs removed. He is just spectacular on the offensive glass, pulling down 16.0 percent of his team's missed shots for the second-best rate in the league (see chart). And while he has no jump shot whatsoever, he was so active off the ball that he averaged 17.1 points per 40 minutes -- one of the better rates at his position. Offensive Rebound Rate Leaders, 2009-10
PlayerTeamRateJon BrockmanSac18.2DeJuan BlairSA16.0Greg OdenPor15.6Kevin LoveMin14.5Nazr MohammedCha14.2*Min. 500 minutes
Blair's biggest weakness is that he's basically a 6-foot-7 center. He has no shooting range and the Spurs are reluctant to play him with Tim Duncan for that reason. Due to his size, he's overmatched playing the middle on defense. Regardless, he's a fantastic value as a second-round pick, but one wonders if this roster is the best complement for his skill set.
JAMES ANDERSON, SG
Player card
• Wingman with solid outside stroke who also can slash his way to free throw line.
• Scorer's mentality, but an average athlete. Needs to improve court vision.
• Good rebounder for size thanks to long arms.
Anderson is a middling prospect in the grand scheme of things, but if he can make shots, he's going to have a long career and will fit in well in the Spurs' scheme of floor-spacing role players. He's among the most prepared first-rounders, which is a good thing, since the Spurs' wing cupboard isn't exactly overflowing right now.
MATT BONNER, F
Projection: 13.6 pts, 7.0 reb, 1.9 ast per 40 min; 12.39 PER | Player card
• Floor-spacing forward with unusual but effective off-shoulder flick shot.
• Willing banger but a limited defender and subpar rebounder.
• No post game, but can put ball on floor and make runners after shot fake.
Bonner is more useful than most pure specialists for a couple of reasons. First, he's not awful defensively. Bonner is 6-10 with a wide frame, and his rates of blocks, steals and fouls averaged near the norms for his position. Second, while he'll never be mistaken for Curly Neal, he makes quick decisions with the ball and rarely gives it up. Bonner landed among the top 10 power forwards in both assist ratio and turnover ratio.
Finally, the Red Rocket quietly has developed one of the most effective floaters in the game. That gives him a show-and-go option to complement his 3-pointer -- since there's no way this guy is getting all the way to the rim from the 3-point line -- and allows him to score at a higher rate than most 3-point specialists.
Obviously, the 40.5 percent career mark on 3s is the key to his game, and if he starts missing those shots, the rest of it will crumble pretty quickly. But as long as he hits 3s, he does enough other positive things to be a key rotation player on a good team.
GARY NEAL, PG
Player card
• Good outside shooter; shot 43.8 percent on 3s in Turkey in 2007-08.
• Undersized 2 who might struggle to defend position.
• Played some point guard in Europe and can run pick-and-roll.
Neal is an incredible story: He was undrafted out of Towson three years ago, and his European odyssey through Turkey, Italy and Spain landed him a spot on San Antonio's summer league team this July. Normally that's a one-week audition before heading back across the pond, but Neal played so ridiculously well that the Spurs offered him a contract on the spot. His 3-point shooting will likely make or break his NBA career as he'll mostly be asked to spot up on the perimeter.
Orgasm
How awesome would it be to leave pro sports and have an open invitation to return to Med School (Pau Gasol)?
the computer obviously doesn't know anything about contract years or that jump shots are not something younger players can work on improving.
Ginobili's PPG seems too high, he will probably score his career average: 16 ish.
So...Hollinger is actually just making up numbers now?
Forget what I said, I just saw that these are per 40 min stats.
I think TP's PER estimate is extremely low. He will be 20+ imo.
Oberto was more mobile than Splitter? When?
I'm one of the few people who defend Bonner. I think he would be better used as an energy guy off the bench, but even as a starter I don't think he is as all-bad as most people say he is. But... "one of the most effective floaters in the game"? Did he really say that? Bonner has obviously worked on that shot, and sometimes it drops for him. But one of the most effective in the game?
Do we really think that the problem with Jefferson is that he has "lost some of his former elevation"? I wonder if Hollinger even noticed that the Spurs play a different style of ball than the Nets did?
I'm wondering if this team could set a record for the fewest FTA's in a single season. Tim is drawing fewer whistles than he used to. Tony has always been light in that department. Dyess almost never goes to the line, nor does Bonner. Blair is learning how to draw more, but still doesn't sell them very well. Jefferson used to draw a lot of fouls - last season, not so much. If they slack off calling them for Manu, it could be a very frustrating season. It's hard to overcome a big disparity in FTA's. They can do it on any given night, but it's hard to do consistently. One of the more underrated stats in the game, as far as I'm concerned.
It's per 40 min
edit: Forget that, I was too quick...
Anyway, there is so much too say about how ed up his computer is...
Credit to Hollinger, he used his favorite calculator to come up with all those numbers:
I think he'll be bellow 20 because we 'll have more scoring from Hill, RJ and Blair, I think he'll have his career AST average due to it.
Along with Tony, Hill and Blair are going under the radar and I LOVE IT !!!!
I think people don't understand the fundamentals of PER
unfortunately his kid's calculator broke last season.Credit to Hollinger, he used his favorite calculator to come up with all those numbers:
he now uses his wifes calculator.
Bump - Okay so here we are with 2 games remaining in the season and here are the PER ratings and rankings: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holli...r%2fstatistics
Preseason PER Prediction......Actual
1. Tim Duncan 21.75.................21.96
2. Manu Ginobili 20.7.................21.83
3. Tony Parker 16.89.................20.55
4. DeJuan Blair 19.03.................17.09
5. Tiago Splitter 14.13...............16.24
6. George Hill 14.48...................14.69
7. Matt Bonner 12.39.................13.32
8. Gary Neal NR........................13.18
9. Antonio McDyess 11.91..........12.65
10. Richard Jefferson 12.34.........12.54
That's pretty solid on Hollinger's part. Only Parker (and maybe Blair) were significantly different than his projection.
Splitter is better than forecasted. 5th best PER on the team and top 100 (93) in the NBA.
He was pretty wrong about Parker slowing down.
San Antonio is the only playoff team in the west to have 5 players in the top 100 and one of two (LA being the other) with three in the top 25. Boston has 5 in the top 100 but only 1 in the top 25:
San Antonio
14 Duncan
16 Manu
25 Parker
71 Blair
93 Splitter
Lakers
6 Kobe
10 Gasol
20 Bynum
31 Odom
Boston
24 Garnett
30 Pierce
63 Shaq
68 Rondo
86 Allen
Miami
1 James
3 Wade
32 Bosh
Orlando
2 Howard
53 Anderson
81 Bass
Chicago
8 Rose
33 Boozer
41 Noah
Oklahoma City
7 Durant
11 Westbrook
61 Ibaka
91 Harden
Dallas
9 Dirk
42 Chandler
72 Marion
Denver
27 Nene
47 Anderson
54 Lawson
82 J.R. Smith
Portland
19 Aldridge
58 Miller
New Orleans
5 Paul
25 West
93 Okafor
That list has Splitter and Okafor both with 93... are they tied, or was that a typo/error?
Miami's is fairly impressive with 2 in the top 3... but we all knew that was going to happen anyways.
Tie. West is tied with Parker as well.
Im not a huge stats guy, but isn't it better to have 4 in the top 50 (including one top 10) like LA than 5 in the top 100 with no top 10?
also, for those that consider these lists accurate... miami's hated super friends third best player is 32, which is worse than LA's fourth best player (odom at 31)- yet no one gives the lakers the same grief they do miami for lacking the compe ive fire to do it on their own instead of colluding and coattailing their way to power.
PER doesnt consider defense, bball iq, or composure/clutchness. its a stats summary, but stats never tell the whole story. thats why I dont read to much into this, even if there are some interesting numbers.
So every spurs players have a better PER than expected (even bonner) except Blair
Which was expected as well considering who made the prediction.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
