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i read somewhere that the cia did use geoscience technology in tracking him
Geographers Had Calculated 81% Chance That Osama Was in Abbottabad
by Sara Reardon on 2 May 2011, 5:56 PM | Permanent Link | 1 Comments
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Credit: MIT International Review
Could Osama bin Laden have been found faster if the CIA had followed the advice of ecosystem geographers from the University of California, Los Angeles? Probably not, but the predictions of UCLA geographer Thomas Gillespie, who, along with colleague John Agnew and a class of undergraduates, authored a 2009 paper predicting the terrorist’s whereabouts, were none too shabby. According to a probabilistic model they created, there was an 80.9% chance that bin Laden was hiding out in Abbottabad, Pakistan, where he was killed last night. And they correctly predicted that he would be in a large town, not a cave.
The bin Laden tracking idea began as a project in an undergraduate class on remote sensing that Gillespie, whose expertise is using remote sensing data from satellites to study ecosystems, taught in 2009. Based on information from satellites and other remote sensing systems, and reports on his movements since his last known location, the students created a probabilistic model of where he was likely to be. Their prediction of a town was based on a geographical theory called “island biogeography”: basically, that a species on a large island is much less likely to go extinct following a catastrophic event than a species on a small one.
“The theory was basically that if you’re going to try and survive, you’re going to a region with a low extinction rate: a large town,” Gillespie says. “We hypothesized he wouldn’t be in a small town where people could report on him.”
“It’s not my thing to do this type of [terrorism] stuff,” he says. “But the same theories we use to study endangered birds can be used to do this.”
In the end, they zeroed in on a Pakistani border town called Parachinar which has, among other things, access to medical care. Then they predicted the exact building he would be in by making assumptions as to the characteristics of the building itself, such as high enough ceilings to accommodate bin Laden’s 6’4” frame, a fence, privacy, and electricity.
The undergraduates did such a nice job on the project, Gillespie says, that he wrote the results up as a paper and submitted it to a small journal, MIT International Review. The next day, he was shocked to find his inbox full of requests for interviews from everyone from USA Today to Sean Hannity. (He declined the latter.)
The paper’s precise predictions were treated with some skepticism by other researchers, who said the authors were overconfident in predicting the terrorist’s hidey hole down to specific buildings. Gillespie says that one of its weaknesses was a lack of hard data on bin Laden’s location, last known in 2001. As to intelligence agencies’ taking interest in his work, “I didn’t hear from them, didn’t expect to. But they obviously did a pretty good job,” he says.
Gillespie says he was surprised to hear bin Laden ended up being only 268 km away from his last known location, but not surprised that he was in a town. “Caves are cold, and you can’t see people walking up to them,” he says.
Still, the late Al Qaeda leader made a bad choice of real estate, in Gillespie’s opinion. “An incon uous house would have suited him better.”
Finding bin Laden’s deputies—the terrorist mastermind is said to be only one of 40 “high-value” targets the Pentagon seeks—is not on Gillespie’s to-do list. “Right now, I’m working on the dry forests of Hawaii where 45% of the trees are on the endangered species list,” says Gillespie. “I’m far more interested in getting trees off the endangered species list.”
http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencein...b7dcf388fd%2C0
Probably just a bit lucky in the prediction but a petty cool indicator of what GIS can actually do.
i read somewhere that the cia did use geoscience technology in tracking him
Gold! I'm taking landscape ecology right now, which is just another name for ecosystem geography. Brownie points.
Well they use GIS in so many things they do from the GPS and the satellite obs (remote sensing etc). I would not be shocked to see if they did a GIS analysis of some sort but I think the analysis done by the students is pretty awesome none the less.
Isnt there a military saying that basically goes "A cave is a grave".
I never thought the world's most wanted man would be in a cave. If youre in a cave, once your enemies know where you are, youre dead, period.
Seems like if you're in a mansion once your enemies know where you are you are dead.
Hindsight is 20/20. Maybe they'll take their advice next time. Hopefully, there won't be a next time.
But the CIA did get intel from KSM.
darrin, you're a clown. you and peter king told the same lie.
WTF are you talking about?
the lie you got smashed telling.
WTF are you talking about?
you keep rackin up those clown points, d.
WTF are you talking about?
What I don't get is why it is referred to as a mansion. Size only? Doesn't look like what I I would call a mansion. Inside wasn't mansion looking either.
And it supposedly valued at $1 million. Only in California, would a piece of like that be worth $1 million.
Pretty sure that if its located in Pakistan and worth 1 million then CA is not the only place it would be worth 1 million.
Different thread.
lol BS
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