By Kate Alexander | Monday, February 21, 2011, 04:36 PM
Texas’ cuts-only approach to its budget shortfall won’t solve the state’s long-term fiscal problems, according to Standard & Poor’s, a major bond rating agency.
“We believe that a balanced approach that includes both revenue enhancements and expenditure cuts has a higher potential of success in preserving the state’s long-term structural budget balance than a strategy that relies solely on expenditure cutbacks,” wrote S&P credit analyst Horacio Aldrete-Sanchez in a report released last week.
Though S&P is not likely to join the Texas Forward coalition, the analyst’s language mirrors that of the education groups, health and human service advocates and faith leaders that have decried the deep budget cuts.
Aldrete-Sanchez also emphasized that the state’s budget hole is not a one-time problem that will go away as the economy improves.
“In our view, the state’s budget imbalance is likely to reappear or persist beyond the upcoming biennium unless other sources of revenue or additional budgetary flexibility are identified to fill this growing funding gap,” the analysis continues.
But new revenue is still not being publicly discussed as Texas seeks to close a budget shortfall topping $15 billion to $27 billion, depending upon who is doing the counting.
Legislative leaders have said they will eliminate that shortfall without increasing taxes or using the rainy day fund, though they have softened recently on tapping at least part of the $9.4 billion reserve account.
The S&P analysis stated that the proposed level of cuts is high particularly for a state that has a low level of per-capita spending already. And those cuts could have significant implications for the local governments, such as school districts, that rely heavily on state money.
None of this threatens the state’s ability to pay its debt, according to S&P, because Texas has comparatively little debt and interest payments are likely to get priority above other spending.