Look at a potential finals series under finals and normal HCA rules. For kicks, team 1 is the Raptors, and team 2 is the Wolves.
Raptors have HCA and win games 1 and 2.
Wolves win game 3.
Raptors win game 4 in OT thriller, as game 4's are always close.
Raptors lead 3-1.
Wolves squeeze out game 5 in Minnesota to send it to 3-2 going back to Toronto.
But if game 5 was in Toronto as it would be under regular HC rules, the series would have been done in 5. Because of the extra home game, it extended the life of the Wolves one more game past what it should have been.
Now, it doesn't necessarily help the road team win the series, but it extends it past what it could have been. Conversely, the road team has virtually no chance to win because its home games are finished. Down 3-2 and with two games on the road, its extremely unlikely to come back from that.
In contrast, say the Wolves won game 2 on the road. They win 2 games in Minnesota, and go back to Toronto up 3-2. They still have odds against them to win the series.
The finals 2-3-2 format seems to do one thing very well. It extends the lifespan of the road team while at the same time almost guaranteeing they ultimately lose the series.
If the team with HCA wins the first two, they are winning the series. Its a 99% lock.
If the team with HCA loses one of the first two, they still have odds on winning because
1. Game 5's are always hotly contested so they have a better chance than in a game 3, which the home team almost always wins, and
2. Game 6 is at home.
Basically, if Dallas doesn't win both games in Miami, they probably won't win the series. Tall order. Shawn Bradley tall.
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