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  1. #76
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    That isn't quite what he said, but this is a much better question/point.

    Until the country can field an army fairly capable of providing its own security.

    The problem is that the religious and clan chiefs are the only law/justice/social system. One has to provide a rational alternative to the zealots, both in terms of the rule of law, but also in terms of actively improving people's lives.

    I think that will take the better part of another decade. To be able to afford that, though, I think we should drastically draw down, and fully withdraw from Iraq.

    Staying is a hard call to make, but would finally put to bed the general perception that we don't have the stomach for the long haul. Not that we should stay just to prove that point, but that would be one of the benefits, i.e. credibility.
    Wouldn't the same arguement towards remaining in Afghanistan apply to Iraq as well? Regardless of how flawed the motives to go into Iraq were, the fact remains that we went and we're there. If the Iraqi government isn't capable of providing their own security and we're concerned that the bad guys may set up camp there once we leave, don't we need to stay?

  2. #77
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    Afghan Local Police ‘Are A Major Threat To Civilians And Stability’



    http://thinkprogress.org/security/20...-major-threat/

  3. #78
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    It should be more in line with the statistical risk of mortality and a mature estimate of the stability and security of the United States vis a vis particular terrorist groups.
    The statistical risk of mortality of a Nagasaki resident in 1944 from atomic weaponry was nil.

    Do we need to wait until an event happens that sharply affects this statistical risk to deal with a problem?

    I can think of several things that a well-armed group of jackasses could do to markedly affect the entire US, just off the top of my head, smuggled nukes being at the top of the list. That list includes quite a few fairly plausible operations within the known capabilities of AQ and its subsidiaries/affiliates that have little to do with nukes.

    That kind of attack will seem remote, right up until it happens, just like airliners bringing down skyscrapers seemed in 1999.

    Yeah, I went there, old bloody shirt or not. I don't buy completely into the "world changed" schtick, but I think we finally woke up to the potential threat that such asymetrical warfare poses.

  4. #79
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Wouldn't the same arguement towards remaining in Afghanistan apply to Iraq as well? Regardless of how flawed the motives to go into Iraq were, the fact remains that we went and we're there. If the Iraqi government isn't capable of providing their own security and we're concerned that the bad guys may set up camp there once we leave, don't we need to stay?
    Iraq's military and security forces are markedly more capable than anything Afghanistan can field.

    The argument does applly to Iraq, but that metric has mostly been met by what I can see, although I have not been keeping up with the day-to-day goings on in Iraq recently.

  5. #80
    Veteran EVAY's Avatar
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    But the general american population does not have the stomach for the long haul, that's not a myth or perception... part of the reason the guy that's in the WH is there is because he ran on a end-the-wars platform?
    Well, in all honesty, he ran on a 'get out of Iraq platform. He said during his campaign that he believed that we should be in Afghanistan, and that Bush had 'taken his eye off the ball' in Afghanistan in order to invade Iraq for a lot of wrong reasons.

    Having said that, the Afghan war does not seem to have any potential good result short of nation-building, a task that would take an army a of a long time to accomplish, since soldiers are generally not trained for that so much as they are for fighting.

    And, since Afghanistan has never really had a tradition of a national iden y or culture, it seems unlikely to develop one between now and 2014.

  6. #81
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Well, in all honesty, he ran on a 'get out of Iraq platform. He said during his campaign that he believed that we should be in Afghanistan, and that Bush had 'taken his eye off the ball' in Afghanistan in order to invade Iraq for a lot of wrong reasons.

    Having said that, the Afghan war does not seem to have any potential good result short of nation-building, a task that would take an army a of a long time to accomplish, since soldiers are generally not trained for that so much as they are for fighting.

    And, since Afghanistan has never really had a tradition of a national iden y or culture, it seems unlikely to develop one between now and 2014.
    Plus you can't force civilians to build what they don't want. You can try turning them against each other (tribes/factions), but it looks they don't want any part on a fight. Didn't want it when the Russian were there, don't see why they would want it now that the US is there. They don't give two s about nation building.

  7. #82
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Afghanistan's army costs almost as much as their government's yearly budget. It's a totally untenable situation, after a solid decade of war.

    They're not ready to take over security from us -- for starters, they can't afford it. And we've made precious little headway training them to do it for themselves. After ten years.

    Is more training really the answer here?

  8. #83
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Do we need to wait until an event happens that sharply affects this statistical risk to deal with a problem?
    No. But perhaps we could manage it a bit more efficiently without occupying two central Asian countries indefinitely.
    Last edited by Winehole23; 06-28-2011 at 02:33 AM.

  9. #84
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Surely the Afghans won't mind if we continue to occupy their land, suborn their government and shoot at them for another decade or two until they get their together.

  10. #85
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Supposing of course that we can afford to do it for so long.

  11. #86
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    How long, RG?

  12. #87
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    We're practically talking to the Taliban right now. A political deal they're part of could happen in the near future.

  13. #88
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    Afghanistan's army costs almost as much as their government's yearly budget. It's a totally untenable situation, after a solid decade of war.

    They're not ready to take over security from us -- for starters, they can't afford it. And we've made precious little headway training them to do it for themselves. After ten years.

    Is more training really the answer here?
    Agreed. I see no reason to expect a second decade of occupation to produce different results from the first. Time to go.

  14. #89
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Among the Costs of War: $20B In Air Conditioning
    "The amount the U.S. military spends annually on air conditioning in Iraq and Afghanistan: $20.2 billion. That's more than NASA's budget. It's more than BP has paid so far for damage during the Gulf oil spill. It's what the G-8 has pledged to help foster new democracies in Egypt and Tunisia."

  15. #90
    Cogito Ergo Sum LnGrrrR's Avatar
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    Among the Costs of War: $20B In Air Conditioning
    "The amount the U.S. military spends annually on air conditioning in Iraq and Afghanistan: $20.2 billion. That's more than NASA's budget. It's more than BP has paid so far for damage during the Gulf oil spill. It's what the G-8 has pledged to help foster new democracies in Egypt and Tunisia."
    1 billion alone probably goes to the server farms

  16. #91
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Agreed. I see no reason to expect a second decade of occupation to produce different results from the first. Time to go.
    Had we left by 2004 or so, by now the war might be considered a win. Now we have to start facing the fact that we lost.
    Last edited by Winehole23; 06-28-2011 at 02:26 PM.

  17. #92
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    Had we left in, say, 2004 or so, by now the war might be considered a win. Now we have to start facing the fact that we lost.
    We could also just say that we were there to take the taliban out of power and to get OBL. Mission accomplished, hooray for us, let's go home.

  18. #93
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Sure, why not. I'm cool with that.

  19. #94
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    Are y'all forgetting the natural gas line from the Eastern Caspian sea area?

    http://www.rense.com/general15/game.htm

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Afghanistan_Pipeline

  20. #95
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    What about it?

  21. #96
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Geostrategery related to subsoil minerals.

  22. #97
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Tell us more, maestro.

  23. #98
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    Sounds like something fun for Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India to figure out amongst themselves.

  24. #99
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    Tell us more, maestro.
    boutons: has nothing to say. GFY.

  25. #100
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    Are Attacks On U.S. Troops Up In Iraq Because Gates, Panetta Say U.S. Will Stay?


    Top American officials, like outgoing Defense Secretary Robert Gates and his replacement Leon Panetta, in recent months have been saying publicly — often times in Iraq — that the U.S. military will stay in Iraq past the Dec. 31, 2011 withdrawal deadline if the Iraqis ask. At the same time, American casualties have sharply increased. This month marked the deadliest month for U.S. troops in Iraq since May 2009. Over at Foreign Policy Passport, Robert Zeigler reports that, according to a former Iraqi U.N. diplomat, “U.S. soldiers are likely being targeted more now because there is talk that Iraqi and American officials will try to keep additional troops” past 2011. “That’s the primary driver,” said Michael Knights, a fellow at the Washington Ins ute for Near East Policy. “The Iranians and Sadrists are taking it very seriously.”

    ====
    Suicide bombers attack landmark hotel in Afghan capital

    At least five Taliban suicide bombers attacked a major hotel frequented by Westerners in Afghanistan's capital late on Tuesday, Afghan officials said, leading to a battle that drew in helicopters from the NATO-led force.

    ===

    And so it goes on. UCA's kick-ass military, 10 years into Afghanistan, can't stop the kick-ass Taleban.

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