Editor's note: Our series this week examines what would happen if five teams decided to start over by making seismic personnel shifts before the 2012-13 season; because of varying factors including age, salaries or expiring contracts, these five teams decide to begin anew. But such an exercise comes with some rules: (1) the owners get the hard salary cap they desire; and (2) exclude the 2012 NBA draft. Today we look at the Spurs.
Taking the draft out of the equation in rebuilding the San Antonio Spurs changes this from a speculative exercise to pure fantasy, seeing as how the Spurs have been a powerhouse for the last decade largely off of their ability to unearth talent late in the draft and then indoctrinate it in the San Antonio way. It's the same blueprint that has worked for most consistently successful small-market teams.
A Spurs makeover is also challenging because, in my mind, it means moving at least two parts of their three-man core -- Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker -- or else you're just equivocating. (I'm starting this exercise off by trusting that San Antonio made a wise choice in dealing George Hill for rookie small forward Kawhi Leonard, so I have him plugged in as my future 3.) And you don't have to be a Spurs fan to know how unappealing and gut-wrenching that would be for GM R.C. Buford or coach Gregg Popovich. They've already kept that nucleus longer than they should have because there just weren't options that could assure them of still contending; and let's face it, that's where the bar has been set for the Spurs.
But enough with the caveats. Here are a few avenues I'd explore in free agency and via trade in hopes of forging another run at le contention before we're listening to Duncan and Popovich make their Hall of Fame induction speeches.
Tim Duncan: "Tim-may" stays, largely because as a free agent entering the 2012 season, I can re-sign him to a deal more appropriate to his value and the restrictions of a $62 million hard cap. He is one of the few superstars I can think of who would take less and trust that the Spurs will invest what they save on his salary in talent that gives him a crack at another ring.
His relationship with Popovich is also the foundation upon which the Spurs' excellence has been built; if Pop can rag on Tim, as he often does, it lets everyone know they're accountable. For all that Duncan has lost athletically, he's still a gifted passing and shooting 7-footer who willingly shapes his game to accommodate his teammates, even lesser ones.
Try as the Spurs might, they have not been able to find an athletic stretch 4 to do for Duncan what Robert Horry did so well. Instead, they've used a compendium: Matt Bonner to space the floor with 3s, McDyess to defend, DeJuan Blair to rebound. But there's a young freakishly athletic 4 who desperately wants out of his current situation, and if I'm San Antonio I do everything to get him: the Atlanta Hawks' Josh Smith. If there's a catch-lightning-in-a-bottle opportunity, it's taking all the obvious physical talent Smith has and harnessing it under the tutelage of Popovich and Duncan. Since the Hawks are in need of both a point guard and veteran leadership, I would offer them Parker, a deal that would work straight up.
Another option, though slightly less attractive, is to see if the Kings would be willing to satisfy their need for a starting point guard -- forgive me for having doubts that either Tyreke Evans or Jimmer Fredette are the answer -- by dealing DeMarcus Cousins. I know, I know: it's a tremendous long shot because big men of Cousins' abilities are so extremely rare. But Cousins obviously has already rubbed more than a few people in Sacramento the wrong way and maybe, just maybe, the idea of having a steady experienced hand like Parker, whose speed and pedigree might be the perfect complement to the up-and-down talent of Evans, Donte Greene and the rest of the Kings' young, athletic core, compels Sacramento to pull the trigger.
Again, my objective is to get a young, athletic big who can help me get the most out of whatever Duncan has left. (DeJuan Blair, for all his relentless board-crashing, is clearly not the answer, because when his effort drops in the slightest, he's a non-factor.) I'd like to think that Cousins would recognize what a great mentor Duncan could be for him, much as David Robinson was for Duncan, and the chance to be next in line in the legacy of great San Antonio big men.
One solid advantage the Spurs have over the Los Angeles Lakers, Orlando Magic and Dallas Mavericks is that they're on the books for $44 million in player salaries in 2012, meaning they can be players in the free-agent market. If Duncan were willing to sign for $10 million or less, San Antonio would still have $8 million left in cap space to find a free-agent point guard to replace Parker. Several options should be available that could allow the Spurts to land a PG with money to spare. There's the Rockets' Goran Dragic, who Spurs fans well remember for his 23-point fourth-quarter burst in the AT&T Center two years ago that helped sweep the Spurs out of the second round. He's also Slovenian, and if anyone has been able to cultivate foreign guards, it's Popovich. The prospect of starting in San Antonio surely would appeal to Dragic over playing behind Kyle Lowry in Houston.
If, for some reason, Dragic has better offers, though, there are a few other free-agent options, Andre Miller, JJ Barea and Randy Foye being three. I don't want to downplay what Parker has meant to San Antonio, but I can find a serviceable point guard on the 2012 market faster than I can find a big man of Duncan's caliber and character.
That brings us to Ginobili. I'd be more than happy to bail on this exercise at this point and say my work is done, because an argument could be made that Ginobili has forged a deeper emotional bond with both Popovich and the Spurs' community than Duncan has. Duncan is the good son who always cleans his plate and brings home the solid report card; Manu is the one who you find out missed school but did so to save a family of four from terrorists. Bottom line: Pop wasn't just blowing smoke when he said the Spurs never would've won their last three championships without him.
But if I have to move two of the three, then Manu has to go. But where and for whom? Would the Hawks be willing to make a megadeal, adding Joe Johnson with Josh in exchange for the Spurs' starting backcourt and Richard Jefferson? Or could I deal Manu and Jefferson for Johnson alone, which, if nothing else, makes the Hawks just as good in the short term and relieves them of a Johnson contract that will become only more onerous? That leaves me free to dangle Parker in front of the Kings.
Or, can I pry away one of the Bulls' quality young bigs, Omer Asik or Taj Gibson, along with Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer for an aging Manu? (Probably not worth it for either side, but a Rose-Manu backcourt would be tantalizing for at least a year, and to be honest, I'm not sure that a 34-year-old SG reaps better building blocks than Gibson and Brewer for San Antonio at this stage.)
Or do I send him to Golden State, which is in need of a veteran who understands how a winning program works, for Monta Ellis, again going on the premise that I need to get younger and that my disciplined system will elevate a raw talent into something special? (This, admittedly, is probably too risky for Golden State, but if anyone can restore Andris Biedrins to the pick-and-roll threat he was with Stephen Jackson and Boom Dizzle, it's Manu. And I like having a big playmaking guard to utilize Curry as a spot-up shooter when he's overmatched.)
I could live with a new lineup of: PG Dragic, SG Johnson, SF Kawhi Leonard, PF Smith, C Duncan.
Or PG Miller, SG Ellis, SF Leonard, PF Smith, C Duncan.
Or even PG Barea, SG Johnson, SF Leonard, PF Duncan, C Cousins.
Would any of these be better than what the Spurs have been for the last decade? Probably not. Manu and Tim, in particular, are once-in-a-decade finds, and Parker is not far behind. The Spurs also have been built as much on consistency and familiarity as anything, and this is a grand departure from that. But every team has to stop patching and accept that it's time for four new tires at some point. That's where the Spurs are now. It's time to break out the tire iron and start cracking some lug nuts.