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BYU will get the invite and if they accept the Big 12 won't miss a beat. The tv contract may get devalued, but it won't make a big difference because A&M was going to get $20+ million which is more than even SEC teams get. BYU will just get less.
I think the odds of schools like Tech getting equal or greater money out of a renegotiated b12 deal are pretty slim TBH. Contrary to what you want to believe, you can't just replace A&M with anybody and not take a hit to TV marketability. The fact that the conference was okay giving A&M a double share is a pretty big financial acknowledgement by all the member schools that A&M is the 3rd most important school to the league in terms of TV revenue. They sure as didn't go along it because they couldn't bear the thought of hurting A&M's feelings.
Not saying that A&M is irreplaceable, but it's not a very long list of teams who are both a) able to deliver the number of TV sets than A&M has the potential to AND b) willing to join the big 12 conference. If you can't find a team that meets both those requirements, it's going to be hard to get a similar deal.
BYU is an obvious choice, but there's a big concern over them beyond simply would they be interested. They're independent and they have their own TV network. Obviously that's not a deal killer since the big 12 is okay with teams having their own networks, but in terms of marketing the conference to a network for a TV deal, the prospect of BYU wanting to put some of their games on their network is going to diminish the attractiveness of adding them.
Not to mention any renegotiation of a big 12 deal is going to take place in a world where Texas actually has their own network as opposed to just wanting one, which is where things stood when the current deal was negotiated. Texas is going to want to put as many games on their network as they can, and a renegotiation gives them the opportunity to expand their ability to do that. Let's also not forget that OU is looking in to getting a Sooner Network and they'll obviously be looking to protect their rights in any tv deal.
So say BYU does come on board. You'd have a big 12 conference where two of the top three draws would have their own networks with the third really, really wanting one. What do you think the odds would be of Texas, OU and BYU wanting to put the games amongst themselves on their respective networks? What do you think a big 12 package without any Texas/OU, Texas/BYU or OU/BYU games is worth?
And obviously all this is assuming that Missouri doesn't bolt which would only magnify the problem by taking away the biggest non-Texas TV market the conference has. Maybe even the second biggest too, depending on whether Kansas City is Mizzou turf or Kansas/K-State turf. I honestly don't know.
There's just way too many variables working against the not-Texas, not-OU teams of the big 12 for there to be a reasonable expectation of them coming out ahead when everything is done shaking out IMO.
Losing Missouri, IMO, is what makes Texas decide to go independent. There's only so many conference usa teams you can add before you're just conference usa plus texas and ou. It's not like Texas can't go independent and not find any tech's, okie lite's or baylor's to play them.as I said before, i believe that OU is the jenga piece, not missouri.
As long as OU and UT stay together, you will always have tech, okie st and baylor.
If houston joins, they will always feed off ut the same as tech and baylor.
Losing mizz would hurt, but I think adding byu and air force would make it alright.
Texas will inform the big 12 who they will be inviting. OU probably gets a courtesy call to endorse their decision. I think you're right though that it won't be Houston.
Last edited by coyotes_geek; 08-31-2011 at 10:00 PM.
BYU will get the invite and if they accept the Big 12 won't miss a beat. The tv contract may get devalued, but it won't make a big difference because A&M was going to get $20+ million which is more than even SEC teams get. BYU will just get less.
So what happens when BYU says they want the same $20 mil that A&M was going to get? BYU is looking to join at the Texas-OU membership level, not the Baylor-Iowa State one.
lol, they're not even going to ask for that. The only reason A&M got that much is because of its ego and because its athletic department nearly went bankrupt and had to borrow money from the school.
Right, so according to your logic losing A&M doesn't lose any markets for the Big12-3+?.
I don't see why they wouldn't get it tbh. That and they get to keep their network and be in an AQ conference.
You're kidding yourself if you think BYU is going to want to join the big 12 to be treated like Tech.
You're also kidding yourself if you think Texas, OU and the other big 12 schools willingly forked over an extra $10 mil to A&M just to stroke their ego.
No they're not. They've never even been in a BCS conference before.
Why wouldn't BYU ask that? They hold all the cards.
And wtf? We got that money from the B12 because of our AD going bankrupt?
Wrong.
Texas A&M owns the Houston market. TCU is located in Dallas. Dallas is owned by texas and ou.
I agree. They'd ask for it and they'd get it. To their benefit and to the detriment of schools like Tech.
That's exactly what they did. They knew A&M would leave if they didn't get a Texas-OU size slice of the pie so that was their only play to keep A&M. Didn't work though.
Texas owns the Texas market.
You're telling me no one in Houston watches UT.
You're saying the Big12-3+? has lost the entire Houston market.
You're really trying to say that.
What does them having not been in a BCS conference before have to do with them not asking for money they could easily get? Seriously, if BYU turns the big 12 down, who is the big 12 going to go get? Memphis? SMU? New Mexico?
BYU holds the cards here, not the big 12.
lol trying to divide and conquer with socialist screeds.
Gee, why was it so important to keep A&M?
If BYU turns down the DeLoss Dodds, then the Big 12 is over. Texas is fine either way.
Didn't say anything that isn't true.
To keep the conference from falling apart which is currently is doing. Doesn't mean it can't be saved. I think I even read that Iowa State and some of the other lower levels schools were willing to give Texas, OU and A&M their share of the NU-CU exit fee money to stay because they will have no where else to go. They had to keep the three teams that most wanted to leave (tech didn't matter).
Nor did I, pinko.
If Texas wanted the Big 12 to be over they'd just leave instead of cooking up some charade where they pretend they want BYU to join, then don't give BYU what it would take to convince them to join.
If you say so.
Awfully DarrinS of you to go to the socialist card btw.......
They don't want the Big 12 to be over. They want BYU to come in as a mid-tier team that doesn't have to be pandered to like A&M. They won't get Texas-OU money because they're not worth it. If they want too much, then Texas goes with Plan B which is to leave. Texas wins either way. Its holding all the cards.
BYU doesn't give a whether they're worth it, they just care whether they can get it.
They can't. They either join a BCS conference or demand more than they're worth and stay in the WCC, lol. Tough choice.
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