Obama still projected to be re-elected
http://howeypolitics.com/m/Articles.aspx?ArticleID=7096
9/22/2011 1:53:00 PM
BY: CHRIS SAUTTER
WASHINGTON - So you think some of Texas Governor Rick Perry’s views are too far out of the mainstream to be acceptable to most independent voters? That’s what some detractors were saying about former California Governor Ronald Reagan in 1979, a year before the 1980 presidential elections. Yet Reagan went on to easily defeat in bent President Jimmy Carter.
With the economy sputtering and approval ratings falling, comparisons between the Carter and the Obama presidencies are appearing with increasing frequency. The implication, of course, is that Barack Obama is headed for a similar fate as Carter in his re-election bid. The extreme views of Republican frontrunner Rick Perry will not stand in the way of voters demanding change in 2012, some argue, if the economy continues to falter just as Reagan’s views didn’t prevent voters from voting out Carter.
But it is much too early to reach such conclusions and there are fundamental differences between the two elections. At least one expert, American University professor Allan Lichtman, flatly predicts Obama will be re-elected. Lichtman has developed a model he calls “The Keys To the White House” for predicting the outcome of presidential elections. Using his model, Lichtman has accurately predicted the correct winner of every presidential election since he developed it in 1984.
Lichtman’s model is based on 13 keys that evaluate the performance of the in bent president. If six or more of the keys produce a negative rating with the sitting president, the in bent’s party loses the presidential election.
Lichtman says none of the individual keys by themselves are enough to predict the outcome. Thus, a poor economy by itself or even in conjunction with a small number of other keys are insufficient to push a sitting president out of office. Obama is winning 9 of the 13 keys. Lichtman says that record is enough to convince him that Obama will win re-election.
The reality is that Carter’s problems ran significantly deeper than Obama’s. Like Obama, Carter faced economic policy failures. But Carter also experienced significant foreign policy defeats, most notably the Iran hostage crisis and the failed rescue attempt. In addition, Carter faced a serious challenge for the nomination within his own party as Senator Edward Kennedy contested Carter in primaries and caucuses, winning several. And, currently at least, there is no independent candidate challenge for the presidency, as there was in 1980 when liberal Republican Congressman John Anderson ran for president siphoning off Democratic support for Carter.
Aside from the factors in Lichtman’s model, there have been significant demographic changes since 1980 that bolster Obama’s chances of winning re-election. Obama easily defeated John McCain in 2008 while winning only 43% of the white vote, while Carter lost in a landslide in 1980 with 43% of the white vote.
According to a recent National Journal analysis, Obama can win key battleground states such as Florida, Nevada, New Jersey, even Virginia, even as his share of the white vote drops because of increased minority voting. And, on top of that, Obama’s share of the senior citizen vote - Obama’s weakest demographic group - is likely to improve if Perry becomes the Republican nominee. Perry’s statements calling Social Security a Ponzi scheme will undoubtedly push some reluctant seniors into Obama corner.
Rick Perry will have considerably more difficulty winning independent, suburban voters than did Ronald Reagan in 1980. For one thing, Reagan’s views never worried most voters. Reagan was a well-known and well-liked public figure long before he ran for President. His unsuccessful campaign for President in 1976 against Gerald Ford put him in the spotlight and provided him with valuable national exposure. Reagan’s soothing style was re-assuring, not worrisome to most Americans, his views notwithstanding.
The blustery Rick Perry is introducing himself to the nation for the first-time. While the Republican base is enthusiastically embracing his candidacy, most independent voters and conservative Democrats (the so-called “Reagan Democrats”) view Perry warily. Perry’s views and style do scare many independents. Further, the Texas governor looks and sounds too much like his predecessor at a time when approval of George W. Bush’s presidency remains low.
This isn’t to say the odds for Barack Obama’s re-election are overwhelming. Though the killing of Osama Bin Laden has elevated Obama’s favorable ratings on foreign policy and protecting the country to a very high level, there is always time for a disaster overseas. And, Ralph Nader’s possible Democratic primary challenges to Obama - while not in the same league as Kennedy’s challenge to Carter - could prove to be a genuine distraction.
Finally, the Republican Party could wake up and nominate a more electable opponent than Rick Perry. But it isn’t likely. 2012 is shaping up as a year, like 1964 and 1980, when the Republican base seems to be demanding that the party nominate one of its own. The Republican base has never warmed up to Mitt Romney. And, while some in the Republican establishment continue to hope for a more acceptable alternative to Perry, none is likely to emerge at this late date.
Barack Obama has struggled in his first term as President. But that is a far cry from a failed presidency as many consider Carter’s. Besides, Obama is a much better campaigner than anyone the Republicans can put up against him short of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
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Perry as the only option to Obama...Mr. "13 keys" can't even project 3 weeks ahead, much less a year...
