Crunching Numbers: The Futures of RJ and McDyess

[timvp]

On Friday, the frenzy of NBA free agency begins. Strap on your safety belts, things will be insane. Teams will have about two weeks to put together their rosters and get ready for the 2011-12 season.

And really, the abbreviated offseason is just part of the reason for the forthcoming insanity, as astutely pointed out by Mel_13. The fact that as many as half the franchises in the NBA have the ability to drop far enough below the salary cap to spend more than the mid-level exception means we can expect numerous bidding wars to emerge. Other considerations: there are a number of American players locked into foreign contracts, which limits the supply of competent players and will thus increase demand; few international players are available to make the jump this season, which will also increase demand; the new CBA calls for teams to spend at least 85% of the salary cap -- a 13.5% increase over the previous CBA; and with more cost-certainty going forward due to stipulations in the new CBA, owners don't have much of an excuse to avoid using their available MLE.

The San Antonio Spurs won't be immune to the craziness. In fact, the Spurs will be diving headfirst into the fray due to the two notable pending decisions. First, San Antonio must decide what to do with Antonio McDyess. Once that's decided, the front office will then need to decide whether to use the amnesty clause on Richard Jefferson and his bloated contract.

Regarding McDyess, three options exist regarding his partially unguaranteed contract: waive him, trade him or welcome him back. If the Spurs decide to waive McDyess, they will only have to pay him $2.64 million, saving $2.58 million. If he's welcomed back, the Spurs would be on the hook for the entire $5.22 million.

Trading him appears also to be an option, although the plausibility of trading McDyess to a team interested in saving money due to his unguaranteeed status is sketchy. McDyess' contract states that the unguaranteed money can only be wiped away if he is waived on the first day of free agency, which means the Spurs would have to trade him and the receiving team would have to waive him this coming Friday. Is there really a team out there willing to attempt to beat the clock on Day 1 of free agency just to save $2.58 million? It's possible, though unlikely -- unless it's part of a bigger trade the Spurs and another team have lined up as the opening bell to free agency rings.

After last season, I thought waiving McDyess would be a no-brainer. He talked about retirement and his play during the postseason wasn't exactly inspiring. However, if you look at the situation logically, the best outcome for the Spurs is actually for McDyess to come back. Even if McDyess is replaced by a player making the league minimum, waiving him only saves approximately $1.79 million. Is McDyess worth $1.79 million? Yes, absolutely.

With the condensed schedule that will feature at least one back-to-back-to-back, the Spurs need more than four halfway capable bigmen. It would be beyond foolish to ask a 35-year-old Tim Duncan to man the paint with a certain Brazilian who the coaching staff struggles to trust, a Whataburger fiend who is shorter than most shooting guards and a traitor to Canada who plays like a shooting guard dipped in molasses. McDyess wouldn't be a savior by any means but for $1.79 million he's a much better option than a minimum-salaried bigman project.

So, to summarize, the plan with McDyess should be to either trade him if another team values the potential savings -- or beg him back. Waiving him should be the last option.

And that brings us to the last man to the pile, Richard Jefferson. Following a disappointing debut season with the Spurs, the team inexplicably decided to reward him with a $40 million contract. It didn't make sense then and sure doesn't make any sense now, but I digress . . .

The amnesty provision in the new CBA could help partially remedy the situation. By amnesty-ing Jefferson, the $30 million due to him over the next three years will vanish from the salary cap numbers. And while the Spurs will still owe him money, it may not be the entire $30 million because teams under the salary cap can place an eBay-type bid on his services. The money Peter Holt would owe to Jefferson would be the difference between the $30 million and the total of the winning bid.

(As an example, if Team X places a $3 million bid on Jefferson, they would be assuming $9 million [$3 million per season multiplied by three seasons] -- which would leave Holt owing $21 million.)

So, should the Spurs use the amnesty provision on Jefferson? It's debatable.

If the front office decides not to use it now, they'd have legitimate reasons. First of all, the amnesty card can be held in their back pocket and used in upcoming seasons in an emergency. Say Matt Bonner loses another step athletically and simple can't hang at all, wouldn't it be nice to have an out? Or, less likely, perhaps something happens to Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili. Or, in the likeliest scenario, the Spurs could wait out this season and then use the amnesty provision on Jefferson next summer when they have a better idea of the state of his play and the future of the team.

Secondly, as previously mentioned, this free agency period is anything but a buyer's market. Finding a replacement for Jefferson sounds easy in theory. But if I'm reading the market correctly, any marginally talented swingman is going to be overpaid. It doesn't sound very appetizing to use the amnesty on Jefferson only to be forced to give a player like Caron Butler a maximum MLE contract.

Third of all, there's a chance that Jefferson redeems himself enough to become a tradeable commodity. It's not overly likely but this front office has a history of being able to make unwanted contracts disappear and trading Jefferson in a reasonable deal is obviously a much better scenario than eating the entirety of the contract.

Another reason not to use the amnesty this offseason is simple: winning. Any swingman who does more than catch-and-shoot is going to have growing pains when put next to the Big Three. It's simply unavoidable. With a short training camp, only two exhibition games and barely any practice time during the season, that first year funk could be next to impossible to shake before the postseason. Limiting roster turnover is a good idea for every team in the league in this post-nuclear winter environment.

And finally, I'm not sure if Holt's heart could handle figuring out that the Spurs would have paid Jefferson $54 million to play two seasons of basketball. Fifty-four million dollars -- and that's not even adding in luxury tax payments the Spurs made or will have to make thanks to the contract. Personally, I view Jefferson's contract as a sunk cost but, then again, I'm not the one who has to cut the check.

The reasons why amnesty-ing Jefferson makes sense are also numerous. Firstly, it will save money. Potentially a lot of money. Let's compare the two most likely scenarios. The Spurs will spend approximately $65 million this season if they waive McDyess, don't use the amnesty provision on Jefferson and sign a player to the mini-MLE allotted to tax-paying teams. On the other hand, the Spurs could waive McDyess, amnesty Jefferson and sign a player to a regular MLE contract and pay out only $63 million for the season. Add in the luxury tax rebate (approximately $1 million) for being under the threshold and the potential of another team claiming Jefferson on waivers for around $3 million and the season's bill could drop to around $59 million. A $6 million total savings is a big deal for a small market club.

A second reason to send Jefferson packing is the increased MLE. Tax teams only get a $3 million MLE with a three-year max length, while non-tax teams get a $5 million MLE with a four-year max length. That doesn't sound like a whole lot but it's the difference between offering a free agent a total of $9.4 million and a total of $21.4 million

The high number of teams that can get under the cap is a third reason to use the amnesty card now. In future offseasons, there are no guarantees that this many teams will have money to spend. Plus, with a handful of teams being forced to spend more than they usually would in order to reach the 85% salary cap minimum, this could be a unique situation that may never be available again. If a team is ever going to bid more than $3 million on Jefferson, it'd be this offseason.

A final main reason to cut bait now is to continue down the road blazed by the George Hill for Kawhi Leonard trade. That swap was a clear sign that the front office has at least one eye on rebuilding (read my previous thread for more on this topic). It has become obvious that Jefferson isn't a part of the future, so amnesty-ing him now can allow the rebuilding process to take another step forward. Replacing his spot in the rotation with a young player -- possibly a free agent signing or even Leonard himself -- could help the present squad while simultaneously building for the future.

What do I think the Spurs are going to do with Jefferson? Honestly, I have no idea. On one hand, the Spurs reportedly led the push to have the amnesty provision be available for the entire length of the CBA, suggesting their preference to hold onto it. Conversely, the Spurs have been linked in the free agency rumor mill to virtually every small forward -- some of which will surely demand the larger of the two MLEs.

What do I want to happen? I want the Spurs to use the amnesty provision on Jefferson now. I believe that it's the right move for today and tomorrow. It will allow the Spurs to go after either a young swingman prospect or a veteran stopgap in free agency. I also favor using the amnesty card now because it will erase the cloud that would hang over the team; watching Jefferson press to prove he's worth his contract is not something I look forward to witnessing.

But most importantly, I'm afraid of the alternative. If the front office doesn't use the amnesty on Jefferson, their first move will be to pick up the phone and offer Jefferson to a team with cap space while adding multiple draft picks, DeJuan Blair and/or Gary Neal to sweeten the pot. It's the recipe they've used in the past and is surely their Plan B. The last time the Spurs were desperate to dump a salary it belonged to Jackie Butler and was 1/12th as large as Jefferson's current deal ... but that didn't stop San Antonio from using Luis Scola as the pot-sweetener.

In a perfect world, holding onto the amnesty provision could prove savvy. But personally, I don't think the risk of the unknown is worth ignoring the immediate benefits of a clean break.

[objective]

your phrasing of the dollar amounts on the Spurs cap and tax this year reads a little odd to me, but I digress . . .

You are correct in that this year should be more likely to find suitors to bid on RJ to meet the salary floor.

Another reason to junk this guy.

I also see no way possible for Jefferson to turn himself into a tradeable commodity unless TD, Manu and Parker all get hurt 1996-97 style and Jefferson corrals empty numbers on a bad team (like he did with the Bucks and like Antique Wilkins did way back when). He's declining athletically and his game will devolve.

[Nathan89]

...a traitor to Canada who plays like a shooting guard dipped in molasses.

[kjhip1]

I think its only right to cut ties with Jefferson, but to add another SFs only makes it that much harder to have cohesion. its takes time with this offense and with a condensed season, it'll be that much harder to bring in a scoring SF having to learn the ropes.

At least with bringing in a big man, it'll be easier to learn roles as we really just need an anchor to help on the boards and lower block. The problem with FA is that there really is slim pickens unless you want to s out money, which we do not have...whatever they do, I'll still ride with them..a championship does not seem to be in the cards but then again neither did Dallas winning the championship last year. It'll just be nice to see the last year or two of Timmy playing ball. The Spurs have been very fortunate up to this point. Here's to another good season!!!

[objective]

I would also say NO to bringing back McDyess.

You make fair, reasoned arguments for bringing him back.

But it is too much of a risk that Pop will use him as a crutch instead of developing Splitter and any other player who can actually do something in the playoffs. It's a shame, but he's done. Except it will be hard for Pop to accept that he's done.

[baseline bum]

But most importantly, I'm afraid of the alternative. If the front office doesn't use the amnesty on Jefferson, their first move will be to pick up the phone and offer Jefferson to a team with cap space while adding multiple draft picks, DeJuan Blair and/or Gary Neal to sweeten the pot. It's the recipe they've used in the past and is surely their Plan B. The last time the Spurs were desperate to dump a salary it belonged to Jackie Butler and was 1/12th as large as Jefferson's current deal ... but that didn't stop San Antonio from using Luis Scola as the pot-sweetener.

Damn, you know exactly what to say to make a Spurs fan on the ledge just go ahead and jump already.

[TDMVPDPOY]

imo the spurs should just stick with the current squad and absorb it

i prefer that we tank and get a lottery pick for the drummond sweepstakes

duncan off the books, resigns for vet....
amnesty rj
thats like 30million of the books....
isnt blair also in his final year of rookie contract?


sign d12 to max or look at greg oden for 4/36m

d12/oden/splitter
drummond/duncan
leonard/green
ginoboli/neal
parker/joseph

[baseline bum]

I hope they amnesty Jefferson too. I'd be interested in moving Parker to the Clippers for their Minnesota pick, DeAndre Jordan, and a contract they don't want, but that's probably a pipe dream considering the talent coming out this year and how they seem to value Jordan over Kaman. Still, taking someone like Mo Williams off their hands would allow them to get their point guard and still have major major capspace to add to a core of Griffin/Gordon/Parker.

[DPG21920]

I said it before, even if his numbers look ok, RJ is like a sickness that infects everyone and drains all of the energy. He has to go, but I cannot see them eating that contract.

[Dex]

There is a chance that Anderson or Leonard may be able to contribute, or that they can bring in another FA who can. The Spurs already know what they are getting with Jefferson.

Send him packing.

[TDMVPDPOY]

timvp

if the spurs are in rebuild mode, why spend the MLE this season....all you doing is piling on un-needed payroll...we must get further under the cap and rebuild through the draft like the thunder....

clippers will not bite a parker trade, when they are under the cap and could just chase after cp3 or deron who are better guards to be built around griffin


denver looks like they wont have kmart, jrsmith for the season and losing nene...maybe we can swing a rj trade to them for whatever pieces they have left....

[silverblk mystix]

Say Matt Bonner loses another step athletically and simple can't hang at all,



dear lord....

[baseline bum]

clippers will not bite a parker trade, when they are under the cap and could just chase after cp3 or deron who are better guards to be built around griffin

Bird in the hand man... Paul wants to go to New York and Williams sounds like he's likely to follow the Nets to Brooklyn.

[objective]

Leonard, Anderson, and the scrub brigade of Green and D.Butler are all the Spurs need at SF with Manu contributing at SF when Parker and Neal are together in the backcourt. Maybe sign one of the remainders of free agency to a vet-minimum.

Anything else is shooting themselves in the foot.

[TDMVPDPOY]

Bird in the hand man... Paul wants to go to New York and Williams sounds like he's likely to follow the Nets to Brooklyn.

might as go after d12 and resign baron to vet or whatever they feel confortable his worth...

we all know d12 excuse is wanting to play in a big market team for his acting career whatever it is, baron davis owns a studio that does short features....clippers might have management, but they are still playin in LA...

[baseline bum]

My trade proposal could put the Clippers in the driver's seat for Dwight Howard. A core of Griffin/Gordon/Parker and the endorsement money he'd make in LA would be a major draw. They could get their point guard and their center while the Spurs could get a leg up on the rebuild.

[spursince#99]

I think we'll waive McDyess & save that $1.79m which will give us the Full MLE to give to Caron Butler & keep RJ to trade him for a big like Kaman cause theres obviously a deal for a big in the works. Then we'll sign Jeremy Pargo & that will be our offseason.

[TDMVPDPOY]

watever trade we pull, we still need someone to take bonner of our hands...

[Bruno]

I disagree on both.

Spurs should let Dice decide if he wants to play another year. If he is fully committed to that idea, they should keep him. Other he should be waived. Trading him seems unlikely since Spurs will value the money saved by waiving him.

What happens with RJ depends on Dice's choice:
- If Dice wants to retire, then using the amnesty on RJ isn't a good option. If Holt wants to save some money, Spurs can use it on Dice's contract and go under the tax this year.
- If Dice wants to stay, then using the amnesty on RJ is likely the right move to do.

On a more global note, it doesn't really matter what Spurs will do with both of them. Both are marginal players who won't really improve Spurs and amnestying one of them won't allow Spurs to get an impact FA since they are over the cap.

[spursince#99]

Either way we'll be significantly better if he retires & Jefferson is traded like I said

[DesignatedT]

Unfortunate that we only have 1 day to flip Dice' contract. At this point I kinda feel like the Spurs will let McDyess decide on what he wants to do. If he wants to keep playing than the Spurs will welcome him with open arms and if he doesn't than the Spurs will go the other direction. I don't see them forcing him out or asking him to retire though.

Seems like if Dice' was indeed set on retiring you would have heard it from him already. He might be debating a return or set on returning.

Hoping we can somehow trade RJ, even if its swaping 1 bad contract for another.

The rumors/meetings with Butler and Howard also seem pretty odd because that would mean the Spurs vision themselves having the full MLE this summer. No way those guys come here for the Mini-MLE IMO.

Can't wait for Friday, that's for sure.

[Tyrone Jenkins]

I disagree on both.

Spurs should let Dice decide if he wants to play another year. If he is fully committed to that idea, they should keep him. Other he should be waived. Trading him seems unlikely since Spurs will value the money saved by waiving him.

What happens with RJ depends on Dice's choice:
- If Dice wants to retire, then using the amnesty on RJ isn't a good option. If Holt wants to save some money, Spurs can use it on Dice's contract and go under the tax this year.
- If Dice wants to stay, then using the amnesty on RJ is likely the right move to do.

On a more global note, it doesn't really matter what Spurs will do with both of them. Both are marginal players who won't really improve Spurs and amnestying one of them won't allow Spurs to get an impact FA since they are over the cap.

I honestly think RJ can be moved via a trade if the DEAL is sweet enough (read that as TP to the team). Most likely trade partners would be New Orleans (expecting to lose CPIII), Altlanta, or Cleveland.

Yeah, those aren't good choices for the Spurs but Atlanta might work as they might be interested in parting w/ Josh Smith (not sure if the Spurs would like him either).

[DPG21920]

I'm not posting again until Friday, I'm tired of the rumors, just want reality right now

[Seventyniner]

Would Dice possibly agree to extend the window for his waiver some more? That would give the Spurs much more flexibility, and if Dice wants to retire anyway, it's no skin off his nose.

[Russ]

After last season, I thought waiving McDyess would be a no-brainer. He talked about retirement and his play during the postseason wasn't exactly inspiring. However, if you look at the situation logically, the best outcome for the Spurs is actually for McDyess to come back. Even if McDyess is replaced by a player making the league minimum, waiving him only saves approximately $1.79 million. Is McDyess worth $1.79 million? Yes, absolutely.

Yes, keep Dyess.

And that brings us to the last man to the pile, Richard Jefferson. Following a disappointing debut season with the Spurs, the team inexplicably decided to reward him with a $40 million contract. It didn't make sense then and sure doesn't make any sense now, but I digress . . ..

Can there be any doubt that a subrosa (illegal) deal was in place between RJ and the Spurs when he opted out of his guaranteed contract last year. The Spurs were hoping some team would bite, but it was not going to happen in a million years. No other team offered Milwaukee anything when they wanted to dump RJ two years ago. Word's out. The Spurs won't be able to trade RJ unless they give up huge assets (TIMVP's Scola analogy is quite apt).

The Spurs will keep RJ and hope for the best .

What do I want to happen? I want the Spurs to use the amnesty provision on Jefferson now. I believe that it's the right move for today and tomorrow. It will allow the Spurs to go after either a young swingman prospect or a veteran stopgap in free agency. I also favor using the amnesty card now because it will erase the cloud that would hang over the team; watching Jefferson press to prove he's worth his contract is not something I look forward to witnessing.

But most importantly, I'm afraid of the alternative. If the front office doesn't use the amnesty on Jefferson, their first move will be to pick up the phone and offer Jefferson to a team with cap space while adding multiple draft picks, DeJuan Blair and/or Gary Neal to sweeten the pot. It's the recipe they've used in the past and is surely their Plan B. The last time the Spurs were desperate to dump a salary it belonged to Jackie Butler and was 1/12th as large as Jefferson's current deal ... but that didn't stop San Antonio from using Luis Scola as the pot-sweetener.

In a perfect world, holding onto the amnesty provision could prove savvy. But personally, I don't think the risk of the unknown is worth ignoring the immediate benefits of a clean break.

I don't see the Spurs amnestying anyone. It's a rich man's game and the Spurs won't play.