2011-12 Spurs Preview - Part 2: The Rotation

[timvp]

In part 1, I laid out the three keys to the Spurs maximizing their championship hopes: an upgraded defense, major contributions from the young players and navigating the abbreviated regular season in a way that will allow the team to peak in the playoffs. Now, with those three keys in mind, let's discuss the optimal rotation for the regular season.

Two players are no-brainers for inclusion in the starting lineup. Tim Duncan, whether you want to call him a power forward or center, starts in the middle. Tony Parker, especially with George Hill back home in Indiana, is the unquestioned starter at point guard. However, from here, the rest of the picture isn't so clear.

At small forward, Richard Jefferson is the in bent. During the free agency period, the Spurs searched high and low for a replacement starter that would have allowed the franchise to use the amnesty clause on Jefferson and his contract. After coming up empty in their search, the Spurs decided to keep Jefferson. And now, at least to begin the regular season, I believe he has to remain the starter.

Jefferson's main attributes at this stage of his career are the abilities to sop up minutes, hit perimeter shots and play slightly above average perimeter defense. With the starting unit, that fits. Plus, if the Spurs are going to get any value out of the $10 million they are paying him this season, keeping him from sulking his way into absolute uselessness would help. Jefferson played well to begin last season so if that happens again this year, the Spurs will gladly accept that unforeseen bonus.

At the bigman spot next to Duncan, the three options are Matt Bonner, DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter. Bonner's three-point shooting spaces the court and makes things a lot easier on the offensive end, however his finesse defense and poor rebounding would put way too much pressure on Duncan. Nix that idea. Blair's physicality and rebounding makes life easier on Duncan, but his poor defensive play would give the Spurs no chance of rediscovering the elite defense that defined the championship teams of the past.

That leaves Splitter. While not the perfect fit in the starting lineup, he makes the most sense. Defensively, he has the potential to be really good. Teamed with Duncan, Splitter could help return the Spurs to their glory days when opponents thought twice about penetrating the paint. He's also quick enough to defend most power forwards, which will allow Duncan to conserve energy.

On offense, Splitter is a bit of an odd fit next to Duncan but the coaching staff should be able to make it work. Since Duncan will play more high post as he ages, Splitter’s lack of an outside jump won’t be too much of an issue. The Brazilian is effective on the low block and even more effective in pick-and-roll sets. I say the Spurs should let Splitter do more of the heavy lifting and let Duncan play more off the ball, much like Kevin Garnett in Boston.

At shooting guard, there's no question that Manu Ginobili is the best player for the job. But due to the current cir stances, I believe he should come off the bench. First of all, Ginobili's minutes need to be limited during this hurried regular season sprint and bringing him off the bench is the best way to make sure he doesn't play too much. Secondly, with the loss of Hill, the Spurs don't have anything resembling a proven playmaker coming off the bench; Ginobili would instantly give the Spurs one of the best reserve units in the league. Last but not least, opening up a starting spot for a young player is important if the Spurs actually want to give their youth a chance to make a meaningful impact.

The player who should start at shooting guard is James Anderson. On the defensive end, he has the necessary tools to be really good. Last season as a rookie, Anderson showed that he’s a willing defender with reasonably quick feet who likes to aggressively challenge shots. On offense, his ability to hit three-pointers is important to give more room for Duncan and Splitter to coexist. Anderson can also succeed in running pick-and-rolls, which would give the Spurs an added dimension for their halfcourt sets.

Perhaps more important than the Xs and Os is the consideration that Anderson's confidence is at an all-time high after a strong training camp. It'd be a shame to relegate him to a limited bench role without first seeing if he's ready for prime time. There's really nothing to lose. If Anderson struggles, Ginobili will be there as the ultimate safety net. But if Anderson succeeds, the Spurs will have a young player to lean on for this season and maybe even a building block for the future.

With a starting lineup of Parker, Anderson, Jefferson, Duncan and Splitter, rotating in the bench players is actually quite easy. When Blair or Bonner checks in for Duncan or Splitter, the lineup will remain big enough to compete on defense. For a model of how that will work, I point to when Malik Rose backed up Duncan and David Robinson. While Rose was definitely undersized, that shortcoming wasn't as noticeable because he always had a big bigman by his side.

It can be argued that starting Duncan and Splitter may lead to Blair and Bonner playing too much together. While that may end up being true (actually, I think Blair and Bonner playing together for any length of time is "too much"), there's really no way to avoid that twosome given the current composition of the roster, so the next best thing to do is to matchup Duncan and Splitter against the opposing team's starters and hope for the best from there.

Ginobili will obviously be the first wing off the bench. Once healthy, Gary Neal can slide into a role as the second swingman off the bench. And while the Spurs signed TJ Ford in the offseason to be the team’s backup point guard, I actually prefer a backcourt of Ginobili and Neal. Ginobili can run the halfcourt sets (like he has always done when coming off the bench), while Neal is a good enough ballhandler to help Ginobili with the point guard duties.

Playing Ginobili and Neal in the backcourt also opens up a role for rookie Kawhi Leonard, which is definitely a plus. Leonard has a chance to become a lockdown defender and a fantastic rebounder for a small forward. His defensive prowess is especially needed because the bench would otherwise be a very lackluster group on that end of the court (plus, having a good rebounder at small forward is important when Bonner is at power forward).

In this ten-man rotation, here is how I’d see the minutes being split:

Tim Duncan – 28
Tiago Splitter – 28
Richard Jefferson - 30
James Anderson - 23
Tony Parker - 30

DeJuan Blair - 23
Matt Bonner - 15
Kawhi Leonard - 14
Manu Ginobili - 26
Gary Neal – 23

In a best case scenario, which would include Anderson and Leonard blossoming into reliable pieces, Jefferson’s minutes could be reduced as the season progresses. But overall, a ten-man rotation such as this could help the Spurs withstand the upcoming rigors.

Unfortunately (to me, at least), Pop seems to be gearing up for an entirely different rotation. It appears as if he’ll be starting Blair next to Duncan and Ginobili instead of Anderson. Off the bench, Ford will likely begin the season as the team’s backup point guard.

In Pop’s rotation, this is how I estimate the minutes will be split:

Tim Duncan – 28
DeJuan Blair – 23
Richard Jefferson – 30
Manu Ginobili – 28
Tony Parker – 32

Tiago Splitter – 23
Matt Bonner – 21
James Anderson or Kawhi Leonard – 15
Gary Neal – 24
TJ Ford – 16

As you can see, Anderson and Leonard appear destined to split a limited amount of time. Splitter will play more than last year but his minutes will be virtually identical to Blair and Bonner. But what would be most disappointing is that such a rotation wouldn’t give the Spurs much hope of improving on defense, nor would it allow ample time for the youngsters to shine.

That said, Pop is the ultimate rotation fidgeter. He loves to shake things up until, in his estimation, the cream rises to the top. So while he may begin the season with a rotation that doesn’t seem aligned with what it will take for the Spurs to maximize their championship hopes, let us hope Pop eventually arrives at that destination.

[Robz4000]

Good write-up! 100% on board with Anderson starting and Manu coming off the bench; letting Anderson shine while allowing Ginobili to gradually get in gear would better ensure a stronger team near playoff time. Not sure if I agree with Spiltter starting with Duncan, though. If you put Blair with Duncan and have Splitter as the first big off the bench, the chances of Blair-Bonner on the court together is minimal.

I also notice you don't have Ford anywhere. I personally think him and CJ should be kept around so we can have a 3-man rotation at the 1 and 2 of Parker/Ford/CJ and Anderson/Ginobili/Neal, as that way there'd be less wear and tear on everyone as a whole. Might also allow Pop to see something in, say, CJ that he otherwise wouldn't.

Can definitely see Pop disregard all of this and just do what he did last year, though. I'm not sure what he's been thinking with these crazy lineups, but then again I'm not sure anyone can claim they understand his plans. Last year he seemed to make the starting line-up worse as the season went on, but I'll hope along with everyone else he does find one that works.

[spurs10]

Thank you for this write up, you're definitely reading my mind. Although we'll find out soon enough, I wonder how we'll deal with Marc and Zac with Blair and Tim starting. If Blair and Bonner are saddled with Zac it's going to be a long night. Is Pop not starting Tim and Tiago because he sees them in the same position? I, too, hoped we'd be seeing them starting together.

[lurker23]

Good job on both parts 1 and 2.

As far as Pop's projected minutes distribution (which I think is a pretty accurate estimation at this point), Gary Neal's injury may be a blessing in disguise, as his minutes will probably go to the Anderson/Leonard duo. This will give those guys a chance to stand out early in the season and earn minutes before Neal gets back. (More accurately, I see this giving Anderson a chance to shine, and Kawhi a chance to make necessary mistakes.)

Another thing to consider with rotations are the intentional and unintentional impacts of a condensed season. Intentionally- Pop will sit guys on a more regular basis, giving youngsters opportunities to stand out. Unintentionally- wear and tear will force Pop to reduce vets minutes per game, or injuries will force him to do so. These near-inevitable 1-3 week injuries to rotation players will force more youngsters to sink-or-swim.

[TD 21]

You forgot one thing about the Rose example and that is this: Duncan played 38-40 mpg in those days. This season, he'll be playing 28-30 mpg. While Splitter, even if they eventually end up starting him, probably wouldn't exceed 28 mpg (and even that is probably too high). So that would leave plenty of time for Blair and Bonner to play together.

It's so obvious what needs to be done to fix the big man rotation. They need to trade Blair. Let's be honest, he's the only one they might trade anyway and he's the one who's in over his head in his role. Something like Blair, Green and a 1st for Patterson, Adrien and a 2nd would make sense and alleviate many of the current problems.

Short of that, they just need to pick their poison. Either they go with as much balance as possible, which means having a defensive liability at power forward on the floor at virtually all times or they don't go with balance, which means having two defensive liabilities manning the power positions simultaneously.

Looking at the projected rotation, how can they continue to feed the team and the fans this garbage about "getting back to 4th-7th defensively"? Let's say Leonard, once Neal returns, is generally the odd man out. They'll have gotten worse in the backup back court defensively, by replacing Hill with Ford, they're already worse at starting power forward, while only definitively improving at back up center. And on top of that, they don't even have five bigs. Yet they want the players and fans to believe they care about defense.

[TMTTRIO]

If we're so concerned about protecting Manu's minutes and giving the young guys some major playing time then maybe we should just start bringing him out to play halfway through the third and fourth quarters.

[ElNono]

Thanks for the writeup. While I do agree that we're going to see your 2nd rotation on days when there's at least one day break, I think we're bound to see really weird rotations throughout the season due to back to backs, 4 games in 5 nights and back to back to backs... Going into the season, I expect Pop to stick to his "veteran pecking order" (wouldn't be fair to the team otherwise), which means Tony, Tim, Manu and Bonner will play their minutes, no matter how much they suck. I also expect those guys to receive the most minute-managing through the season (including sitting them out for complete games).

All in all, I think there's going to be plenty of opportunities for everybody. I think win/loss record will determine to a greater extent whether there's going to be a lot of opportunities to see the young mixed with the veterans. I can see a situation where if the Spurs come out of the gates like last season, Pop would eventually prefer to sit ALL the vets on the 1st or 2nd night of a back to back.

Just my gut feeling. We'll see where we are starting monday.

[DPG21920]

Ive been pleading for the Tiago and Tim line up but Blair/Bonner is so bad I actually understand why they arent going to do that. This year more than ever the 3rd & 4th bigs will play together. Spurs did this to themselves and I think the Spurs are in serious trouble. TP and Tim have to have healthy all-star years. I am worried with this team you will see a lot of low energy games. They didn't add a single energizer to their roster or a big man.

I do think that they can be a better team as is but it would require Tiago to start, along with Anderson/Leonard making a large impact which is difficult to see with regards to Leonard.

[lurker23]

I thought about starting a new thread for this topic, but decided it would best be discussed here: What is everyone thinking about the possibility/advisability of Kawhi playing a decent amount of time at PF?

I know, I know, small ball sucks. But given the Spurs shallow frontcourt (which, it could be argued, contains zero true power forwards), we have to expect at least some small ball, with the primary options being RJ and Kawhi. I'd argue that Kawhi is the better option of the two, being more athletic, likely more mobile, and likely the better rebounder.

Besides, given the choice of different rotations, which would you rather see more: a Blair/Bonner frontcourt, or a Leonard/Splitter frontcourt?

[portnoy1]

You forgot one thing about the Rose example and that is this: Duncan played 38-40 mpg in those days. This season, he'll be playing 28-30 mpg. While Splitter, even if they eventually end up starting him, probably wouldn't exceed 28 mpg (and even that is probably too high). So that would leave plenty of time for Blair and Bonner to play together.

It's so obvious what needs to be done to fix the big man rotation. They need to trade Blair. Let's be honest, he's the only one they might trade anyway and he's the one who's in over his head in his role. Something like Blair, Green and a 1st for Patterson, Adrien and a 2nd would make sense and alleviate many of the current problems.

Short of that, they just need to pick their poison. Either they go with as much balance as possible, which means having a defensive liability at power forward on the floor at virtually all times or they don't go with balance, which means having two defensive liabilities manning the power positions simultaneously.

Looking at the projected rotation, how can they continue to feed the team and the fans this garbage about "getting back to 4th-7th defensively"? Let's say Leonard, once Neal returns, is generally the odd man out. They'll have gotten worse in the backup back court defensively, by replacing Hill with Ford, they're already worse at starting power forward, while only definitively improving at back up center. And on top of that, they don't even have five bigs. Yet they want the players and fans to believe they care about defense.

I completely agree with the Spurs starting Splitter and Duncan together. I also agree the problem is Blair, but not just because of his size. More so he is the problem because Pop is going to Bonner 20mins regardless. The answer lies in (IMO) getting DIOP. He is 7ft 300lbs a decent rebounder and shot blocker in 15-20mins a game. Like blair he has no offense, but is better defensively and simply BIGGER.

The bad - His contract is about 6million a year. Thats a bit much for someone who is only gonna play 20mins a game as a backup. But if Pop wants to role out Bonner for extended minutes then he needs a big Center to cover up Bonner's rebounding and defensive problems. Diop, Pryzbilla and Gray are the only guys I can see playing effectively with Bonner and not hurting the team overall defensively. I understand that Bonner spreads the floor, but I would much like to see the Spurs somehow get PF Jason Smith from the Hornets. He is young, tall(7-0), pretty mobile and has solid jumpshot out to 19ft.

[itzsoweezee]

There's no reason for Splitter playing less than 30 minutes a game. He's young, athletic, and healthy; he should be getting major minutes.

[mingus]

i want TP, Manu, JA, Splitter, and Duncan starting. limit their minutes in the reg. season, but start them together and let them have sufficient time on the court together. if we're going anywhere that's the lineup that taking us and they have to get comfortable with eachother. as far as i'm concerned, RJ showed last year in the playoffs he can't be counted on in the starting lineup. demote him to second unit.

i would bring Kawhi in anytime Bonner and Blair on the floor together to alleviate the lack of rebounding. plus you have to give him time to get a feel for how to play defense on preimiter players because that's where he's got to make his money. second unit: TJ, Kawhi, RJ, Blair, Bonner.

i think Neal is the odd man out. sounds weird, but in all honesty if it wasnt for Anderson getting hurt last year he probably wouldn't have played anyway. he's a guy who should come in if were in desperate need of buckets. if RJ plays bad enough in the second unit (very likely), i'd put Neal in for him. but Pop has too much pride to do that. no way he doesn't play RJ after giving him that contract.

[Libri]

There's no reason for Splitter playing less than 30 minutes a game. He's young, athletic, and healthy; he should be getting major minutes.

And yet in the write up, RJ is the one getting the most minutes. RJ's playing time could be a whole 30 minutes of nothing.

[therealtruth]

I also want to see a return to the days of twin towers with Splitter and Duncan. However I think the Spurs need at least one other big to keep Blair/Bonner combo from happening.

[DPG21920]

I thought about starting a new thread for this topic, but decided it would best be discussed here: What is everyone thinking about the possibility/advisability of Kawhi playing a decent amount of time at PF?

I know, I know, small ball sucks. But given the Spurs shallow frontcourt (which, it could be argued, contains zero true power forwards), we have to expect at least some small ball, with the primary options being RJ and Kawhi. I'd argue that Kawhi is the better option of the two, being more athletic, likely more mobile, and likely the better rebounder.

Besides, given the choice of different rotations, which would you rather see more: a Blair/Bonner frontcourt, or a Leonard/Splitter frontcourt?

Kawhi has yet to show a glimpse of above average NBA level athleticism. He would be destroyed at PF IMO.

[Obstructed_View]

Seems hard to believe that Pop used to play David Robinson at small forward.

[mystargtr34]

Tiago-Duncan-RJ-Anderson-TP would be the group i would go with aswell... if you start Manu then your left with Kawhi-JA-Neal off the bench and that puts too much pressure on JA and Neal to create offense. Ive already said enough about how i feel about Tiago starting.. so i wont bother repeating myself.

Really hard to argue with anything in the OP.. the only thing i would say is 30 minutes is too much for RJ given that his game is pretty much that of a spot up 3 point shooter with terrible D. I would like to see either Leonard take some more of those provided he can settle in.. if he cant i would give 4-6 of those minutes to JA.. i think you can easily play him at SF for a short stints.

If the Spurs are ever going to move forward you have to let the young guys play and make a few mistakes. What would have happened last season if Splitter gets thrown in early in the season.. he probly fouls out a few times.. maybe the team wins 58 games instead of 61.. but i bet you the Spurs dont get abused by the Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs. You have to make a sacrifice or two for the long term benefit of the team.

I like what the Lakers are planning to do by starting Devin Ebanks.. they know he has the potential to be a lock down defender so theyre giving him an opportunity.. who gives a if it isnt fair to guys like Barnes and Artest. You have to play the young guys at some point. and maybe piss off a vet or two.

[therealtruth]

Seems hard to believe that Pop used to play David Robinson at small forward.

He used to play Tim Duncan at SF with Robinson at PF and Perdue at C.

[The Truth #6]

I don't recall the "Triple Towers" starting together for that long, but it's been a while and I could be forgetting.

As far as rotations, I think Pop's biggest mistakes will be overplaying Bonner (no surprise there) and TJ Ford. I agree that Neal should get backup PG minutes. I've been of that opinion for a while. You know he'll be the backup PG when things get intense in the playoffs so might as well play him now...you know, play the best players. It's a strange concept for the last few years. TJ should be insurance only in case Joseph or later Neal don't work as the backup PG, but we know that will never be the case.

As has been the case for the last few years, the season will be a test to see if the new players can produce quickly AND if Pop can learn to adapt to reality and put the team in a position to succeed in the playoffs.

[therealtruth]

I don't recall the "Triple Towers" starting together for that long, but it's been a while and I could be forgetting.

As far as rotations, I think Pop's biggest mistakes will be overplaying Bonner (no surprise there) and TJ Ford. I agree that Neal should get backup PG minutes. I've been of that opinion for a while. You know he'll be the backup PG when things get intense in the playoffs so might as well play him now...you know, play the best players. It's a strange concept for the last few years. TJ should be insurance only in case Joseph or later Neal don't work as the backup PG, but we know that will never be the case.

As has been the case for the last few years, the season will be a test to see if the new players can produce quickly AND if Pop can learn to adapt to reality and put the team in a position to succeed in the playoffs.

I agree Pop has been way to rigid the past few seasons and needs to be able to adapt on the fly. Also playing Bonner alot of minutes is not going to hlep improve the defense. I want to see the Spurs take pride in their defense again.

[Obstructed_View]

He used to play Tim Duncan at SF with Robinson at PF and Perdue at C.

Whatever makes you happy.

[dunkman]

Yes, Pop tried with Perdue-Robinson-Duncan front-court.
It didn't function well.

[analyzed]

I share the same feeling, something tells me Pop won't use the combination of TD and Splitter playing together much. However the glimer of hope that maybe Pop might be open to idea is based on how he started with oberto and TD in 2007 and 2008. Splliter by all accounts is as quick and big as Oberto defensively and offensively should be more capable.

If you remember in 2007, Horry was coming of the bench to spell Oberto and finished games. Whose our current version of Horry ? (don't laugh ) yup because he spreads the floor Bonner !, but before you dismiss the idea, what makes me think it could work, is the presence of a rebounding and defensive SF in Leonard to make up for Bonner's shortcomings, Yup playing them together at both forwards spots to finish games could work. With Spliiter starting to set the defensive tone and size dimension. Well fingers crossed .. I hope so, In this set-up Blairs role .. is energy rebounding guy quality minutes of the bench

[lurker23]

Kawhi has yet to show a glimpse of above average NBA level athleticism. He would be destroyed at PF IMO.

I think you underestimate Kawhi's athleticism, but for now I can agree to disagree. Truth is, we still haven't seen the kid play a lot above the collegiate level. In any other season, we'd have a few hours of summer league and preseason to dissect, but this year we're running a little blind.

[Obstructed_View]

Yes, Pop tried with Perdue-Robinson-Duncan front-court.
It didn't function well.

22-8 is pretty good.