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Just to put BonnerGate to bed, here's a scan of Dean Oliver's book in question.
@ arguing about a book that's on my shelf
I tell you what though, statistically speaking, they're good enough to follow the progression between regular season and playoffs. But I already know you're not a Ginger lover, so I'm pretty sure you agree with me on this one.
Just to put BonnerGate to bed, here's a scan of Dean Oliver's book in question.
I don't hate Bonner at all, I just hate the way Pop is over using him.
This thread proves there's such a thing as a statistical anomaly
Just to put BonnerGate to bed, here's a scan of Dean Oliver's book in question.
BTW, what book is that?
At least admit that you and your partner were wrong about the b-r.com definition of defensive rating since I'm sure he'll be out "doing groceries" for a while
Is there a way to find which mix of Spurs players on the floor has the best defense?
That's a scan of "Basketball on Paper" by Dean Oliver who is explaining how he calculates defensive rating. Oliver's defensive rating is what is used on basketball-reference.com. You two were saying it was simply (Opponent's Points Allowed/ Opponent's Possessions) x 100 ... which it's obviously not.
Come on, keep up!
A couple of things to chew on about Matt, on a more serious note:
- He played 28 mins in the opener and 24 mins last game. Sandwiched in-between, his minutes have been under 20, at around 16 mpg. I think this is a reflection of Pop trusting Splitter.
- He was the 3rd big off the bench last game, when prior to that he was the 4th.
The question is, does the surge in the last game has to do with strictly matchups or some sort of loss in faith towards Splitter.
I think these are interesting subplots to look at in the next few games.
At least admit that you and your partner were wrong about the b-r.com definition of defensive rating since I'm sure he'll be out "doing groceries" for a while
I did try to talk him out of the "estimate" argument, but he wouldn't have any of it.
I apologize, IMO
Don't throw me in the same bag. It does say in the site it's "an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions".
Oh, and thanks for the name of the book
Of mixes that have played at least five minutes together this season, the answer is:
PG Tony Parker
SG Danny Green
SF Richard Jefferson
PF Tiago Splitter
C Tim Duncan
Yeah, true. Basketball-reference.com is really unclear with that. It shouldn't say that, IMO. It should specify that it's Dean Oliver's formula that attempts to estimate it using traditional stats.Don't throw me in the same bag. It does say in the site it's "an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions".
Seriously, not your fault and not that other guy's fault. No apology necessary.
Maybe I'll ask b-r.com for an apology.
This is the formula b-r uses for defensive rating (Dean Oliver's formula) -
Defensive Ratings
That was the offense. The defensive formulas are much simpler, because methods for defensive evaluation aren't as well developed theoretically. Simply put, I have struggled with evaluating players' defenses for many years now. I came up with a basic method three or four years ago called defensive stops, which are a way of estimating how many times a player stops the opposition from scoring. It's not a bad first approximation, but it misses out on players like Joe Dumars and Glenn Rivers, who prevent their assignments from scoring by not allowing them good looks at the basket. They don't get many defensive rebounds or blocks and don't steal the ball much, but they shut down their men. Doug Steele came up with a good way for accounting for this type of player, the kind of player I call a good man defender. On the other hand, my method does best at evaluating team defense, which would include blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds. Doug has begun including these in his method, too, but he uses a form of linear weights, something I disapprove of rather heartily.
Defensive stops occur every time the opposing offense ends a possession without scoring. This can happen via a turnover or a missed shot that the defense rebounds. I evaluate every player on the team as being roughly even in man defense. I do this by finding out how often (times per minute played) the opposition is stopped not through a steal or block, then multiply it by the individual's minutes played. In the formula, this is
Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
The first part inside the square brackets is how many times the opposition misses a shot, then divided by a factor of two. I divide by two because half of a defensive stop is the missing of the shot -- the other half is getting the defensive rebound. (There is a slight error in logic in the previous statement. See if you can pick up on it.) The second part in the square brackets is the number of turnovers not caused by steals.
Now we've taken out the individual contributions of blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds to get an average estimate of man defense. It's time to add those back in for each individual. Just adding in an individual's steals and half of both his defensive rebounds and blocks gives an overall formula for defensive stops:
Defensive Stops =
Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
+ STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)
Again, remember where we are and where we want to go. We have an offensive rating from above and now we need a defensive rating. We have defensive stops, not a defensive rating. We need to estimate "how many points per possession a player gives up."
This, I'm sorry to say, is difficult to define. How do you evaluate the guard who lets his man drive past him, where his center saves him by blocking the layup attempt? Who gets credit for the stop? Who gets the blame if the layup isn't blocked and goes in? These are theoretical difficulties. Generally, a team plays a style of defense that either asks for help defense or asks for straight man defense or something in between. Depending on whether that guard was supposed to let his man go by determines whether he did something right. If he was supposed to let the man go by, then rotated to the big man's assignment to cut off the dump pass, he apparently did OK. If he was supposed to play straight, then any points scored should mostlly be blamed on him, not the big man covering the little guys' back when it's not his responsibility.
Given this dilemma, how do we proceed? Basically, I try to fit defensive stops into a framework that makes some sense if we ignore the above questions. Ignoring the difficulties sometimes allows one to see a solution. That is my guiding paradigm here.
If we can somehow evaluate how many stops per possession a player has, we essentially have the defensive equivalent of a floor percentage Going from this to a points per possession rating is fairly straightforward. This is the method.
To find the stops per possession, divide a player's total defensive stops by his minutes played, multiply by the team's minutes played, and divide by the team's total number of possessions:
Stops/Poss= (Stops*TMMIN)/ (Min*TMPoss)
This number turns out to be very high for some players. For example, Olajuwon consistently has a stops/poss value of 0.7 or so. This would mean that he stops seven tenths of all possessions he is responsible for. Or his opponents score only 30% of the time against him, for a rough rating of 60. Olajuwon is a good defender, but he's not that good.
In order to compensate for this flaw, I weight the team's defensive rating with the individual's stops/poss value. I weight them 80% to 20% because I figure that one player is 20% of his defensive team. It's a little hokey, logically, but it gives results that I'm fairly pleased with, as I mentioned above:
Def. Rtg = 0.8*TMDef.Rtg + 0.2*(200*(1-stops/poss))
For completeness, the factor 200*(1-stops/poss) is an approximation of the points per 100 possessions arising from the given value of stops/poss.
damon stoudamire, mike finley, matt bonner, will perdue and jack haley
Here's what funny with those numbers from 82games.com you linked.Yeah, true. Basketball-reference.com is really unclear with that. It shouldn't say that, IMO. It should specify that it's Dean Oliver's formula that attempts to estimate it using traditional stats.
Seriously, not your fault and not that other guy's fault. No apology necessary.
Maybe I'll ask b-r.com for an apology.
If you look at Net 48-Minute Production by Position, other teams score an average 2.2 more points per 48 while he's on the floor. You just have to wonder how we've blown out teams with him being the best big defender, playing reduced minutes and leaking points...
I'll chalk it up to the Richard Jefferson shooting 50% effect
Bonner will always have decent defensive statistics because he's always on the floor with either Tim or Tiago.. while Tim and Tiago will always have slightly underwhelming defensive statistics because they are always playing next to either Bonner or Blair.. arguably two of the worst defenders in the league.
You play Blair and Bonner together they would be up around 105 points per 100 possesions.. even playing against second units. You put Tim and Tiago together for extended minutes and their numbers would be around 90.
dp
Bonner is the Nugget stopper.
could have used some of that elite Bonner defense in the second half.
I've written a lot of words on Bonner on this site, mostly defending him. This is not because he's an amazing player, but because he's an average player with legitimate NBA talent in certain areas (and obvious deficiencies in others), yet the hyperbole makes him sound like the worst player this side of Mengke Bateer.
Anyway, that's my long way of saying I don't feel like talking about it at the moment, and I'm only posting to say:
I'm very disappointed in this thread. Based on the le, I was looking forward to a nice centerfold spread of lucious sandwiches.
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