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Trade his ass
After the loss against the Thunder, I had this to say about San Antonio's point guard:I want to double-check that final sentence using available statistics. Since Parker has become an All-Star and Finals MVP due to his elite ability to penetrate the lane and finish among the trees, a lessening of that ability would obviously be detrimental to his effectiveness going forward.
First of all, is Parker really getting to the rim less often than usual?
FGA at the rim per 40 minutes
2007 - 6.8
2008 - 6.7
2009 - 8.3
2010 - 6.5
2011 - 7.3
2012 - 5.6
So, yes, Parker is getting to the rim 23.2% less often than last season and at a lower rate than any point in the previous five seasons. Let's add in his teardrops.
FGA nine feet and closer per 40 minutes
2007 - 8.9
2008 - 9.0
2009 - 11.1
2010 - 8.6
2011 - 10.3
2012 - 7.4
Adding Parker's teardrop shot makes the drop from last year even larger (28.2%). From his career year in 2009, the drop is 33.3%.
Is Parker also having problems finishing at the rim?
FG% at the rim
2007 - .650
2008 - .640
2009 - .650
2010 - .627
2011 - .654
2012 - .459
Yes he is. Let's include his teardrops.
FG% nine feet and closer
2007 - .628
2008 - .608
2009 - .593
2010 - .604
2011 - .618
2012 - .429
Another thing to look at is the percentage of Parker's shots that are assisted. Traditionally, his forays to the basket are unassisted because the plays involve him beating his man off the dribble.
Ast% on FGs nine feet and closer
2007 - 25.4%
2008 - 18.2%
2009 - 20.0%
2010 - 25.2%
2011 - 22.0%
2012 - 28.6%
Not only is Parker getting to the rim less often and finishing at a lower percentage, this elevated assisted percentage suggests Parker depends on his teammates to score more than ever.
What could be causing his declining ability to finish around the basket? Is he getting blocked more often?
Percentage of interior shots blocked
2007 - 11%
2008 - 12%
2009 - 12%
2010 - 17%
2011 - 13%
2012 - 19%
Blocked shots do appear to be an issue.
Looking at those stats, there's some similarity to Parker's injury plagued season of 2009-10. That year, injuries made Parker less explosive and that negatively effected his ability to get into the lane and score. This year, Parker is again noticeably less explosive.
So what ails Tony Parker?
Injuries don't appear to be an issue. Hopefully his slow start in this area is simply due to the irregular offseason because the lockout. There wasn't a full training camp so perhaps Parker isn't in game shape yet. Could Parker be worn out after all the basketball he played in Europe during the lockout? Maybe.
The other possibility is the worst: Is this simply a matter of Parker declining? At 29, could he have reached the end of the road of his star years? To answer this question, let's look at similar players in NBA history.
To find players similar to Parker, I did search for point guards with career averages of at least 15 points and five assists and less than half a three-pointer made per game. Theoretically, these point guards, like Parker, relied on an ability to finish at the rim.
In the following list, the first number is their age of statistical decline as defined by PER dipping under 20 for last time. The number in parentheses is their statistical peak based on PER.
Isiah Thomas - 25 (23)
Calvin Murphy - 26 (25)
Walt Frazier - 27 (26)
Tiny Archibald - 28 (24)
Pistol Pete Maravich - 29 (28)
Kevin Johnson - 30 (24)
Gus Williams - 30 (28)
Unfortunately, the Parker-in-decline scenario looks likely in a historical sense -- especially considering that Parker entered the NBA at a younger age than all the players on the list and has also racked up a ton of minutes in the playoffs.
While these findings have been a bit depressing, the news isn't all bad regarding Parker. Honestly, looking at the bigger picture, there are some very positive signs.
First of all, Parker has increased his scoring when needed the most. In fourth quarters, he's averaging 30.9 points per 40 minutes on 58.8% shooting from the field and 87.5% from the line. In clutch situations (less than five minutes left in the game with neither team up by more than five points), Parker is even better -- shooting a perfect 4-for-4 from the field and 4-for-4 from the line.
Secondly, Parker's assists per minute are way up this season.
Assists per 40 minutes
2007 - 6.1
2008 - 7.1
2009 - 8.1
2010 - 7.3
2011 - 8.1
2012 - 9.6
Also, his turnovers per minute have plummeted.
Turnovers per 40 minutes
2007 - 3.1
2008 - 2.8
2009 - 3.0
2010 - 3.5
2011 - 3.2
2012 - 1.9
The result is a fantastic assist-to-turnover ratio of 4.92-to-1. To put that in perspective, only once in the last decade has an NBA player finished with an assist-to-turnover ratio that high.
Oftentimes Parker has been criticized for not being a "real point guard" and not taking care of the basketball. While we know that latter aspect can't be a complaint so far this season, it's now more than ever erroneous to say that Parker isn't a legit point guard.
Comparing Parker to Avery Johnson (who was a "real point guard" by any definition), AJ's best ever assist-to-turnover ratio was 4.0-to-1. Parker's assist percentage (defined as the percentage of field goals assisted while on the court) is 38.7% this season. AJ's assist percentage was 37.4% during the 1999 championship season and 33.4% during the 1994-95 season that ended in the Western Conference Finals.
Parker's transformation, whether intentional or not, isn't hurting the Spurs offense. In actuality, even with his own scoring down, the Spurs are an elite offensive team when Parker is on the court. The team scores 101.7 points per 48 minutes when he's on the court -- only the Miami Heat average more points per game. Normalizing pace, the Spurs score 106.4 points per 100 possessions when Parker is on the court -- only the Los Angeles Clippers score more often.
When Parker is on the bench, the Spurs aren't nearly as lethal offensively: 99.1 points per 48 minutes (which would be 8th in the NBA) and 103.7 points per 100 possessions (also 8th).
What, then, ails Tony Parker?
It's possible that he's declining -- although even if he is, there are signs he can adapt to his diminishing physical capabilities and still lead an elite offense. That said, judging by his ability to score when absolutely necessary, perhaps it's only a matter of time before Parker bounces back to his normal scoring level.
We'll have to keep checking in on Parker's production as the season progresses to conclusively figure out what's happening. As it stands, while Parker's go-to ability to score in the paint has fallen off for the time being, the stats also say his overall offensive impact remains a strength for this team.
Last edited by timvp; 01-11-2012 at 01:21 AM.
Trade his ass
Sounds good to me!
Shoulder tendinitis.
I truly want to believe that he's just rusty or tired from playing in the summer.
But i remember last year saying to myself that he isn't finishing well at the rim like he used to. He was still making incredible layups but at a much less frequent rate than before.
Now this year we have hardly seen it BUT the year is still young. And honestly if him turning into a true pg helps our team, then im all for it. That would mean that RJ needs to keep playing well all year.
9 games
Imo Parker's been significantly declining for the past two seasons now (http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=153976). Hopefully he can turn things around in this hectic schedule but it seems unlikely, and Parker is the kind of player that declines seemingly overnight since he's a small and high-mileage guard that thrives through speedy penetrations to the paint.
And while Parker has been racking up assists, his playmaking still leaves a lot to be desired. Not all assists are created equal, and his are mainly dishing it out to an open man on the perimeter, or thats what it seems like anyway, which can be gameplanned against relatively easily like the Grizz showed. Compare that with a true and elite PGs like CP3, who have better ball handling and can deliver many more dishes and scoring opportunities for his team, and also makes better decisions too. Remember that RJ alley oop that Parker and the Spurs used to run? The rest of the league figured that one out easily and we never see it anymore, part of that is on RJ and the Spurs gameplan, but most of that is just how predictable Tony Parker is as well imo.
In addition, Tony Parker's body language has bothered me for a while. and its lasted to this season as well. Specifically that highlight where Coach Pop slapped Parker's face to get him pumped, something doesn't seem right with Tony. Almost like he checked out.
Tony Parker's stock has been plummeting for me for the past couple of seasons, and it really fell after his big market aspirations, that sexting nonsense, and with Parker's decline both mentally and physically, and the Spurs getting early exits doesn't help either although he's just one of many problems when it comes to that. Hard to say against a Finals MVP, but Parker's just not living up to what the Spurs are about - class, defense, and hustling on the court. In all areas, Parker has been a huge disappointment. I can't help but think of him as a cancer.
Anyway still an early season and he's one of the few guards that can consistently penetrate and make something out of nothing for the Spurs. Hopefully he can have a monster game against the Bucks. But in all honesty, I think Parker should've been traded a while ago....he's just a very average and replaceable guard if he can't consistently be a scoring threat. But then again, I doubt there are really any realistic trades that would be worthwhile to the Spurs
Last edited by Cane; 01-10-2012 at 02:36 PM.
We havebeen preparing for years for this to happen. Parkers game depends on speed and we have been hoping for him to become a ruthless jump shooter to prolong his scoring prowess. I believe the, Memphis series Parker is all we can expect from him at this point. Pray I'm wrong.
Link? I saw him loosening up one of his arms a lot before the scrimmage (I think I posted about it) but haven't seen anything since then.
Nice write up Timvp.
Since this thread may be marred with "trade TP!" responses, would you suggest that even being an option for the Spurs?
I think it's way too soon to give up on Parker now. But if his current trend continues, should the Spurs look into shipping him off at the deadline for a big?
Too much offseason nonsense with France plus Eva leaving him equals this version of Tony Parker..
Sounds good to me!Spurs fans have been wanting to trade Tony Parker since literally his first summer league game. He'll go down as by far the most underappreciated star player in franchise history.
It seems like the only Spurs fans who have appreciated TP over the years are the ones who were fans before the championship days and can remember the 25 years of trash at point guard before some skinny kid arrived from something called Paris Basket Racing.
I don't agree on that he is a cancer but I do agree that he looks like he has checked out. He looks disinterested, bored, tired.
Seeing the kind of person he is, i wonder if he needs a change of scenery? and i sometimes wonder if he truly listens to what Pop says to him anymore?
I hated hearing the bad in there but I enjoyed hearing the positives even more. Thanks for sharing the analysis.
Man, I still remember TP tearing Gary Payton a new one in the first round of the 2002 playoffs
Ah, the championship days...when Parker was subbed out for real PG's when the team needed it the mostExcept against Boobie Gibson of course
Anyway here's hoping Parker can turn things around, but I think he's been done as a primary option, and could've used a change of scenery
The stats simply don't back that up. If you look, last year might have been the best year of his career in terms of finishing at the basket.
Now maybe we can say this issue dates back to the Memphis series ... but I haven't gotten those numbers yet -- and I'm not sure how much six games can tell us either way.
Yeah, hopefully it is just a matter of SSS.
He said that yesterday on his radio show. I can give you a link to the podcast but it's in French. I also got the feeling that Parker, with Pop's agreement, was in coasting mode.
was he also in coasting mode vs the Grizz?
IMO its all a combination of the lockout, slowing down, new teamates and maybe even his injury. I just care he plays good enough to help Spurs make the playoffs and then not coast during the playoffs again.
Good read as always.
Concerning the assist and turnover I think it's not his playmaking ability that has changed.
Most of his TO has always been on penetration when he look to score himself and very few when trying to make a creative assist. He goes less to the rim so far and when he goes, he is more often blocked => less TO
Most of his assists are when he finds outside shooters. RJ, Bonner, Neal are on fire and he doesn't have to share the ball with Manu => More assists
It could be by design ... its not a coinciedence he turns it up in the 4th. While
his whole career it was more like go 100mph in the first 3 ... And Maybe the
coaching staff is incentivising his assists and less so his points.
Great write up TIMVP, thanks
the stats were huge to actually take a look at, even this early in the season
couldnt agree with this ^^^ more as well
It seems like the only Spurs fans who have appreciated TP over the years are the ones who were fans before the championship days and can remember the 25 years of trash at point guard before some skinny kid arrived from something called Paris Basket Racing.
Maybe it's temporary. Maybe Hollinger and his Fluke stat was right, and Tony isn't the exception...
While this write up do ents pretty well the offensive tale (thanks LJ), I've also been concerned with his lack on intensity on defense. And it's not just this season, but something that's been waning down along with the rest of the team the last few seasons. It's not uncommon to see him not even putting a hand up to contest a shot these days, instead simply choosing to turn around and look if it's a make or a miss.
He can't go full speed the whole game. Nothing new
2 or 3 summers ago, he was in the same situation with the FNT than this year spurs without manu. No playmaker or clutch player outside of him
They decided with the coach after several game where he was out of gas in the 4th that he will look to pass a lot early for every player to be in the game and for him to keep energy for the 4th.
Maybe they decided with Pop to do the same
Anyway he isn't very good so far this season
Outside of the playoffs, there's no way to call last year a decline. In fact, he improved so greatly over the previous season that Hollinger called it a fluke.
Valid concern.
1) The assists that aren't created equal are assists that lead to three-pointers. Tony Parker leads the NBA in such assists by a wide margin.
2) The Grizzlies cut down on the Spurs three-pointers but, tbh, that same penetrate and kick philosophy worked well in 03, 05 and 07. And the threes the Grizz mostly eliminated were by not doubling TD.
3) CP3 is a better pure point guard than Tony Parker. There's no debate on that. But comparing favorably to CP3 isn't the only judge of what a "true" PG is. I don't think TP is going to morph into John Stockton but there are signs that he can change his stripes a bit to fit what most consider "true".
?
Most of your criticisms of Parker makes sense. This one doesn't. The league figured out a gimmick play in which Parker is only responsible for the pass ... and that's Parker's fault? Wha?
I don't think I've seen that play call this year. Though speaking of Parker, Jefferson's scoring this year can be directly attributed to Parker creating shots for him.
I don't think he was mentally into that game. But that happens to every player during the regular season. But, yeah, TP deserved blame.
All of which he denied and proved false without a doubt after he signed his contract extension.
Though an entertaining rumor, I never saw anything resembling proof.
A huge disappointment in class? Again, unless TMZ is your bible, there isn't any proof of lack of class. On the court, he's about as classy as there is ... if that even matters.
Defensively, stats show little to no decline in his play despite the Spurs as a team falling off a cliff in recent years.
Hustling? He's coming off a season that saw a jump in steals and him playing the passing lanes. There are bouts of loafing but I wouldn't say Parker lacks hustle as a player.
When, exactly? Not before championship No. 4. 2009 was his career year. 2010 his value dropped due to injury. Earliest it would have made some sense to trade him was last year at the trade deadline -- but that wasn't exactly "a while ago" and trading him away when you have by far the best record in the NBA would have had Pop and RC committed.
Eventually, yeah that'll probably be true. But as of this second, he' not a consistent scoring threat but I wouldn't classify him as average or easily replaceable.
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