Rodeo Road Trip

[phxspurfan]

We win 2 more games mad peeps gonna be hoppin' on my 9-0 band wagon


There's still room!

[therealtruth]

Grizz got stomped in BOS, Spurs get a break Mon night.

Exactly. The Spurs got a break.

[Dex]

Well, so much for my prognostication. I figured we'd start off in typical fashion with a loss, then start stringing together wins.

Still, I'll take the W.

[Mark in Austin]

Memphis W
Philadelphia W
New Jersey W
Detroit W
Toronto L
LA Clippers W <------ Manu returns this game
Utah L
Portland L
Denver W

6-3

[Two10Whitey]

I'll stick to my prediction.. 9-0 lets go.

[jestersmash]

I'd like to point out that the the following line of reasoning is mathematically and statistically invalid:

Spurs are 13-0 at home. Spurs are 0-5 on the road (this isn't true, but bear with me for the sake of the example).

Spurs will play 33 home games and 33 road games.

Therefore, we assume that the Spurs will win 100% of their home games and 0% of their road games for a final pace of 33-33.

I've seen this sort of logic thrown around in numerous threads as of late. It's incorrect and invalid logic from a statistical standpoint. The implicit assumptions that go into this kind of reasoning are invalid to begin with.

It's not at all clear that the spurs lost their road games because they were on the road. If we could do an actual controlled experiment by reversing time and having the spurs play its road losses at home, it's not correct to assume that they would have won all of those games.

Barring all extraneous variables (injuries to Ginobili/Ford, etc.) the best possible statistical extrapolation one can make (i.e. the statistical extrapolation that makes the least number of unwarranted assumptions) is to multiply the Spurs' current win percentage by 66 --> .65*66 = Spurs are on pace to win roughly 41-42 games.

[jestersmash]

Oh, and .65*9 = 5.85, so I'm going to say the Spurs will go either 5-4 or 6-3 on this road trip.

[SpursRock20]

I'd like to point out that the the following line of reasoning is mathematically and statistically invalid:

Spurs are 13-0 at home. Spurs are 0-5 on the road (this isn't true, but bear with me for the sake of the example).

Spurs will play 33 home games and 33 road games.

Therefore, we assume that the Spurs will win 100% of their home games and 0% of their road games for a final pace of 33-33.

I've seen this sort of logic thrown around in numerous threads as of late. It's incorrect and invalid logic from a statistical standpoint. The implicit assumptions that go into this kind of reasoning are invalid to begin with.

It's not at all clear that the spurs lost their road games because they were on the road. If we could do an actual controlled experiment by reversing time and having the spurs play its road losses at home, it's not correct to assume that they would have won all of those games.

Barring all extraneous variables (injuries to Ginobili/Ford, etc.) the best possible statistical extrapolation one can make (i.e. the statistical extrapolation that makes the least number of unwarranted assumptions) is to multiply the Spurs' current win percentage by 66 --> .65*66 = Spurs are on pace to win roughly 41-42 games.

You made that seem a lot more complicated than it needed to be

[jestersmash]

Brevity has never been my strong suit.

[Dr Cox]

6 wins on this roadtrip.

Memphis W
Philadelphia W
New Jersey W
Detroit W
Toronto W<----MANNNUUUUUUUUU
LA Clippers L
Utah L
Portland L
Denver W

[rascal]

I'd like to point out that the the following line of reasoning is mathematically and statistically invalid:

Spurs are 13-0 at home. Spurs are 0-5 on the road (this isn't true, but bear with me for the sake of the example).

Spurs will play 33 home games and 33 road games.

Therefore, we assume that the Spurs will win 100% of their home games and 0% of their road games for a final pace of 33-33.

I've seen this sort of logic thrown around in numerous threads as of late. It's incorrect and invalid logic from a statistical standpoint. The implicit assumptions that go into this kind of reasoning are invalid to begin with.

It's not at all clear that the spurs lost their road games because they were on the road. If we could do an actual controlled experiment by reversing time and having the spurs play its road losses at home, it's not correct to assume that they would have won all of those games.

Barring all extraneous variables (injuries to Ginobili/Ford, etc.) the best possible statistical extrapolation one can make (i.e. the statistical extrapolation that makes the least number of unwarranted assumptions) is to multiply the Spurs' current win percentage by 66 --> .65*66 = Spurs are on pace to win roughly 41-42 games.

Home games have a higher probability for W. Just look around the league and it will bare out that home teams win at a higher %.

[Mel_13]

Home games have a higher probability for W. Just look around the league and it will bare out that home teams win at a higher %.

Really?

[rascal]

Oh, and .65*9 = 5.85, so I'm going to say the Spurs will go either 5-4 or 6-3 on this road trip.

They could but you are not giving any weight to road games vs home games and strenght of opponent.
To make it even more accurate you have to take all the variables and put them into the equation.

[rascal]

Really?

Yes Home records are better for most teams than their road records.

[Mel_13]

Yes Home records are better for most teams than their road records.

Excellent find. I'm sure that anomaly has never been noted before.

[Em-City]

lol @ ST folks trying to turn everything into measurable figures and stats

[Dex]

lol @ ST folks trying to turn everything into measurable figures and stats

\

My sources indicate that 76.3% of posters on SpursTalk are John Hollinger.

[timtonymanu]

Look's like I'm 0-1 already. Doesn't matter to me. Spurs are 1-0 so far.

[jestersmash]

lol @ ST folks trying to turn everything into measurable figures and stats

Really? From what I've seen, it's pretty much exactly the opposite. Most ST folks prefer to make assessments with "eyeball tests" and "gut feelings" in lieu of using statistics (especially advanced statistics).

You'll pretty much be laughed off the forum if you try to use any of Hollinger's (arbitrary, but nevertheless useful/insightful in my opinion) models in your arguments

Gut feelings and hand wavy arguments tend to garner more respect here.

Something like this -

"Well, Philly has been on such a tear and they are so solid defensively, we'll probably drop that one. While we typically do well against sub-.500 teams historically, we probably won't have a 100% win percentage against this group, so we'll probably lose once to either NJ, Toronto, or Detroit.

I think we'll get complacent against Detroit after 2 days of rest, but we'll bounce back and win in Toronto even though it's the second night of a back to back.

Blake and CP3 are starting to click more, plus Vinny Del Negro has some insight into the mind of Popovich so we'll probably lose that one.

When Manu returns, it'll take some time for him to truly get into game shape. He'll probably have a couple of poor shooting nights and he'll be somewhat turnover-prone while trying to build chemistry with the new players, and this will translate into a loss or two during the latter half of the RRT.

6 Memphis W
8 Philadelphia L
11 New Jersey W
14 Detroit L
15 Toronto W
18 LA Clippers L
20 Utah L
21 Portland L
23 Denver W

4-5"

[jestersmash]

By the way, to the person who said the Spurs schedule has been easy compared to other teams -

The Spurs are 4th in the league in terms of strength of schedule (SOS = 54.1%) and have played 26 games so far in a league where the range of # of games played is anywhere from 21 to 27.

The Clippers, while they rank 2nd in the league in terms of SOS, have only played 22 games so far.

The Cavaliers rank 28th in terms of SOS and have only played 22 games so far.

I don't buy the argument that the Spurs schedule has been easy compared to other teams.

[Spurtacus]

6-3

[phxspurfan]

There's room for a few more on my 9-0 bandwagon... ALL ABOARD

Just replace 2003 with 2012 lol



and Kevin Willis with Bonner...
SJax with Neal...
...defense with offense

and such

[Jimcs50]

2-0

[maverick1948]

Having withdrawals from not seeing Spurs for 2 straight nights!!! LOL

[Juggity]

6 Memphis --> W, No Zach Randolph, and a ty Rudy Gay; the Grizz are not playing up to the level they were last year. Although the revenge factor might play into this game and make it more difficult to pull out the win, the Spurs should take it ultimately.

8 Philadelphia --> L, These guys are on a tear. Defensively impressive.

11 New Jersey --> W, No excuses

14 Detroit --> W, No excuses

15 Toronto --> L, Token loss to a ty team on the B2B

18 LA Clippers --> L, This team has improved since we last met up at the AT&T Center, a game I attended. They're too explosive to beat outside of our comfort zone at AT&T, and Blake will almost certainly make up for his lack of a highlight reel last time with some authoritative moves that will once again expose the Spurs.

20 Utah --> L, Toss up. Given our road record so far, I'd say toss ups go to the opposition.

21 Portland --> W, will be hard-fought, but I predict the spurs will rebound from their three consecutive losses and pull out the win here.

23 Denver --> L This team is close to contending. Not expecting to win in Denver.

Of course, Manu is the X factor. If he comes back before the road trip is over, I wouldn't put any of these games out of reach. We could win any of them, potentially.

So far I've only got Philly wrong. The way we've been playing, I expect the spurs will outperform my prediction.