Bigman Combinations: The Raw Stats

[ElNono]

What are some possible explanations?

Personally, I think it's matchups, matchups, matchups... He is:

A) Not a shot blocker
B) Not a guy to take charges
C) Not a guy that responds well to physicality

Would you go at him or at Duncan on a consistent basis?

Playoffs key a lot more on individual matchups than anything you see in the regular season. They simply have much more value because you're going to be playing the same team over and over. The regular season, on the other hand, is more about getting team play ready for the playoffs.

[angelbelow]

Its easy to see why Tiago and Bonner work so well.

-Tiago has developed into an excellent decision maker in the post. He either gets a high percentage shot or makes a nice pass. Hes been able to find Bonner for a wide open wing 3pt every single game.
-Bonner spreads the floor well for him, and Bonner happens be on absolute fire right now. The combination of sharpshooting from Bonner and inside dominance from Splitter is really effective.

As for a Duncan, Splitter combo, I'm confident that it would work. Especially if Parker and Ginobili are in the back court. Ginobili and Splitter were already clicking but now it looks like Splitter and Parker's chemistry is growing by the minute. I have a hard time believing the offense would be stagnant with 4 of our best scorers/play makers on the court at the same time.

[SA210]

I also think a big reason for the offensive struggles of the Duncan/Splitter combination is not having Manu.

[z0sa]

I knew Bonner has played below his regular season level in the playoffs... but such a vast difference, I just don't understand.

[lurker23]

As for a Duncan, Splitter combo, I'm confident that it would work. Especially if Parker and Ginobili are in the back court. Ginobili and Splitter were already clicking but now it looks like Splitter and Parker's chemistry is growing by the minute. I have a hard time believing the offense would be stagnant with 4 of our best scorers/play makers on the court at the same time.

I agree, in the long run it's really hard to imagine that 4-man combo being anything but effective on both ends, and (barring a trade) I expect that to be the crunch-time lineup come April.

The only problem is that Manu is the only 3-point shooter among those 4, and even he has been shaky behind the arc since his career year in '07-08. Ideally you'd like Kawhi to be the 5th player in that lineup, but unless he can learn the corner three post-haste, you probably have to go with Neal or Jefferson.

[timvp]

In the graph below, the blue line illustrates how many points the Spurs allowed per 100 possessions with Bonner on the court during that year's playoff run, the orange line is how many points per 100 possessions the team allowed as a whole, and the yellow line is how many points per 100 possessions the Spurs allowed when Bonner was on the bench.

Same graph but for the regular season:



So in the regular season, Bonner's been an asset defensively three of the last five seasons. And even in the two other seasons, he wasn't too bad.


P.S.

The explanation of Bonner's defense looking good this year because he comes off the bench and thus faces worse players loses some validity because Bonner started for much of the 2009 season and his defensive numbers were good that year too.

[MannyIsGod]

The most useful graph would likely be trend lines on the +/- of each big man combo against time. Are there game by game splits available that show the stats listed in the OP on a game by game basis?

[DPG21920]

Another partial aside: If it could bring back a starting quality big (define that as you will), is it a crucial enough need due to the window the Spurs have at a le shot to give up Kawhi in a deal to secure that player? I think it is.

[Russ]

Same graph but for the regular season:



So in the regular season, Bonner's been an asset defensively three of the last five seasons. And even in the two other seasons, he was too bad.


P.S.

The explanation of Bonner's defense looking good this year because he comes off the bench and thus faces worse players loses some validity because Bonner started for much of the 2009 season and his defensive numbers were good that year too.

Could someone do a similar graph for Bonner's three-point percentage during the reg season vs. playoffs?

I bet the graphs would be mirror images of each other . . .

(And it would be more significant because Bonner's perceived value is supposed to be on offense.)

[DPG21920]

As an aside, is it me or have the Spurs hidden RC since The Incident? He's been a ghost this year it feels like.

Nothing?

[roycrikside]

Since the defensive stats this year make Matt Bonner look like the second coming of Hakeem Olajuwon, here's a reminder of how much Bonner's defense has historically fallen off in the playoffs.

In the graph below, the blue line illustrates how many points the Spurs allowed per 100 possessions with Bonner on the court during that year's playoff run, the orange line is how many points per 100 possesions the team allowed as a whole, and the yellow line is how many points per 100 possessions the Spurs allowed when Bonner was on the bench.



It's interesting that the defense minus Bonner hasn't gotten that much worse since the championship days. But when Bonner is added in, the Spurs just can't defend in the playoffs.

What's odd is that Bonner's regular season defensive numbers are usually either good or great. Come playoff time, though, those numbers go on the toilet.

What are some possible explanations? Is anyone going to claim small sample size? Does the above graph make Bonner regular season fool's gold?







I didn't mean to derail the thread but I don't think it's worthwhile to get too excited about Bonner's defense unless there's a way to solve his defensive struggles in the postseason . . .

Obviously I have no proof, but three reasonable guesses are

1) Teams game plan more in the playoffs than the regular season, since they know they're going against a specific opponent for a series of games. Maybe teams look to go at Bonner more in the playoffs and try to wear him down over a series of games since he's not the most physical guy...

2) There's generally more physical, interior play in the playoffs. Teams that may not be as post-oriented try doing it more when it matters, because that's what works in May and June, the inside-out game, instead of the flex offense and driving and kicking.

3) Just some bad matchups. In 2008 we lost to the Lakers. Big team with Gasol, Bynum and Odom. In 2009 we lost to Dallas, who have Dirk. In 2010 it was Dallas again, who we beat, and then Phoenix, with Amare on the pick and roll and Frye shooting threes. Last year it was Memphis with the other Gasol and Z-Bo.

It's depressing to think about, but I think Bonner's stats look good because there are just a lot of crappy teams in the NBA, with a lot of crappy benches. In the playoffs everyone you play is good, especially in the West, where just about any contender has at least one big starter who's a monster and another one off the bench who's a scoring threat. There's 6-8 teams out there out of a 30 team league who will really give Bonner problems, but the fact is we're always going to run into those teams in the playoffs. It's not a coincidence.

All that being said, there has definitely been some "choking" by Bonner in the playoffs. Even with the mismatches, he shouldn't have played as badly as he has, so you would hope (pray? dream?) that he'll eventually be due for a good postseason in 2012. Regardless of how he gets burned on defense, he should still be able to shoot better than he has. One shouldn't affect the other.

But yes, I would very much like to see the mpg for Splitter and Bonner get flipped in the playoffs. 30 mpg for Splitter would be good.

[timvp]

Could someone do a similar graph for Bonner's three-point percentage during the reg season vs. playoffs?

I bet the graphs would be mirror images of each other . . .

(And it would be more significant because Bonner's perceived value is supposed to be on offense.)

Hmmm ... I'll tackle that real quick.

Nothing?

Bro, no offense but that is pretty random aside for the topic at hand.

[lurker23]

Another partial aside: If it could bring back a starting quality big (define that as you will), is it a crucial enough need due to the window the Spurs have at a le shot to give up Kawhi in a deal to secure that player? I think it is.

It's a tough question. In essence, it's a question of present vs. future. With Anderson and Blair having tough years, the only thing Spurs fans can confidently point to 2-3 years from now are Parker, Splitter, and probably Kawhi. As such, he's a very, very tough piece to give up.

However, I think you have to say that, if offered a starting caliber PF/C who you feel gives you a 60% chance or better of winning the Western Conference, you probably have to pull the trigger. (That said, the previous sentence was tough to type.)

[SpurNation]

This is really nice work. A lot of time, effort and labor of love to which helps derive an understanding of the combinations of big man rotations. To which it would be interesting to know who the supporting players during those durations were on the court at the same time to know if their presence also made a difference in these figures.

Some combinations, without having these figures, have been somewhat obvious as to which combinations have worked the best just through visual observation. I find it strange some have not witnessed that Blair needs to be paired with Duncan. And it's why Pop does so. And without the numbers...it was evident that a Blair/Bonner tandem does not work.

But to me what the graphs/charts/figures define the most is it depends on if the Spurs would be playing a game where they would be getting 100 possessions or more OR if they would be playing in a game where their number of possessions would be limited to under 100 in a 48 minute game.

El NoNo's chart illustrates it clear. If the Spurs are playing a faster paced game when the number of possessions would be higher...they have 6 combinations of big man rotations that provide more points scored than allowed than in a slower paced game of less than 100 possessions in a 48 minute period. At least that's what the numbers are showing me in those charts.

But it is interesting to see that a Splitter/Blair combo does better than what I thought. To which...if it be the case that Manu helps Blair perform better...perhaps another reason to have Manu come off the bench and perhaps start Bonner with Duncan since it appears that the team's defense is better when Bonner is on the court as opposed to Blair. Which in turn would also help elevate the starting squads points which also was a concern.

[silverblackfan]

Nice job and lots of great numbers to digest.
I must say that since you have been providing these statistical break downs, the whole site seems to be improving. Fans like to talk about their team without a lot of drama. These posts seem to bring out the great discussions.

[silverblackfan]

Tim Duncan and Small Ball
47.84 minutes
97.32 points per 100 possessions
87.78 points allowed per 100 possessions
97.32 possessions per 48 minutes
93.31 points per 48 minutes
79.26 points allowed per 48 minutes

Seems like one reason Pop runs this line up...

[silverblk mystix]

All of this when you could just open your eyes and watch a Spurs game.

You will see the obvious;

Bonner is just not a good player. Tiago is a good player.
Pop chooses to overplay a ty player and Pop chooses to underplay a good player.

I didn't even need a graph or a pie chart to tell me that.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I try so so hard to like Bonner. I really do. Seeing his regular season vs playoffs data officially makes it impossible, barring a solid playoff run for the Red Rocket.

[timvp]

Matt Bonner Points Per 36 Minutes





Matt Bonner Three-Point Percentage





Matt Bonner Threes Made Per 36 Minutes



So, in the playoffs, Bonner's defense crumbles and his three-point shooting becomes pedestrian ... to put it nicely.

The only somewhat positive I can take away from those three charts is Bonner's increasing points per minute numbers in the playoffs. While that could be a sign that he might be choking less, a closer looks makes it appear to more of a fluke: Last year in the playoffs, he was 8-for-10 at the free throw line in 123 minutes. Considering that this year in the regular season he has shot only 14 total free throws in 547 minutes, we can't exactly count on Bonner's points getting inflated due to him getting to the charity stripe.

IMO, while his three-point percentage in the playoffs is troubling, the fact that he makes much less in the playoffs is even more troubling. Although both probably trail in the "troubling" department when compared to his defense.

The Bonner Conundrum would be comical if it wasn't so sad. He's a damn useful player in the regular season but then becomes useless in the playoffs. Do you take the 5 or 6 bonus wins he gives you in the regular season even though he won't help you in the playoffs? Pop obviously thinks so. Personally, I'd rather take the regular season losses and give minutes to a player who could actually help in the playoffs ... but that's easy to say on the outside looking in.

[silverblk mystix]

Matt Bonner Points Per 36 Minutes





Matt Bonner Three-Point Percentage





Matt Bonner Threes Made Per 36 Minutes



So, in the playoffs, Bonner's defense crumbles and his three-point shooting becomes pedestrian ... to put it nicely.

The only somewhat positive I can take away from those three charts is Bonner's increasing points per minute numbers in the playoffs. While that could be a sign that he might be choking less, a closer looks makes it appear to more of a fluke: Last year in the playoffs, he was 8-for-10 at the free throw line in 123 minutes. Considering that this year in the regular season he has shot only 14 total free throws in 547 minutes, we can't exactly count on Bonner's points getting inflated due to him getting to the charity stripe.

IMO, while his three-point percentage in the playoffs is troubling, the fact that he makes much less in the playoffs is even more troubling. Although both probably trail in the "troubling" department when compared to his defense.

The Bonner Conundrum would be comical if it wasn't so sad. He's a damn useful player in the regular season but then becomes useless in the playoffs. Do you take the 5 or 6 bonus wins he gives you in the regular season even though he won't help you in the playoffs? Pop obviously thinks so. Personally, I'd rather take the regular season losses and give minutes to a player who could actually help in the playoffs ... but that's easy to say on the outside looking in.

I commend you for being nice and tactful....

I wish I could be so forgiving...but I can't...

I think Pop sucks.

[ElNono]

"It wouldn't be fair to the team"

[angelbelow]

Nothing?

Probably, dwi is pretty serious IMO. But unlike my college buddies he should be fine financially so hes probably just hoping this blows over from a media standpoint.

I agree, in the long run it's really hard to imagine that 4-man combo being anything but effective on both ends, and (barring a trade) I expect that to be the crunch-time lineup come April.

The only problem is that Manu is the only 3-point shooter among those 4, and even he has been shaky behind the arc since his career year in '07-08. Ideally you'd like Kawhi to be the 5th player in that lineup, but unless he can learn the corner three post-haste, you probably have to go with Neal or Jefferson.

Good point about the 3pt shooting, is 2005 Bruce available? If James Anderson panned out he could have been really interesting option as the 5th player too. Out of the 3 back up swingmen, James Anderson's play making has impressed me the most but ofcousre, he hasn't had that much playing time so his playmaking could be a flaky.

[Russ]

The Bonner Conundrum would be comical if it wasn't so sad. He's a damn useful player in the regular season but then becomes useless in the playoffs.

I've always said Bonner could be used as an "innings eater" starting pitcher in baseball.

The "innings eater" is the fifth starter who protects your stud pitchers from too many innings until the post-season starts.

Then you put the "innings eater" in the bull pen (long relief). In other words, you never see him again unless the game is a blowout either way.

Bonner could be a great "innings eater" for the Spurs. Why? Because the Spurs need to preserve the few effective bigs (Duncan and Splitter) that they have for the playoffs. Bonner can spell either of them in less important games and hit some threes along the way to buy time for them to rest.

The problem comes when that strategy does not get revised in the playoffs.

[therealtruth]

The Bonner/small ball experiment has run on too long. The last time we won we had 3 quality 6'10" and taller bigs (Oberto, Horry, and Elson) that are better than Bonner/Blair. Right now we only have Tiago but Pop doesn't believe in him because he doesn't spread the floor.

[SpurNation]

The Bonner Conundrum would be comical if it wasn't so sad. He's a damn useful player in the regular season but then becomes useless in the playoffs. Do you take the 5 or 6 bonus wins he gives you in the regular season even though he won't help you in the playoffs? Pop obviously thinks so. Personally, I'd rather take the regular season losses and give minutes to a player who could actually help in the playoffs ... but that's easy to say on the outside looking in.

The only problem is that the Spurs don't have another option to give minutes to. Not unless before the end of the season they can bring in another big or Blair overcomes himself as well.

Again...this year...all we have is hope Bonner will not fade away in the playoffs.