Bigman Combinations: The Raw Stats

[therealtruth]

I've always said Bonner could be used as an "innings eater" starting pitcher in baseball.

The "innings eater" is the fifth starter who protects your stud pitchers from too many innings until the post-season starts.

Then you put the "innings eater" in the bull pen (long relief). In other words, you never see him again unless the game is a blowout either way.

Bonner could be a great "innings eater" for the Spurs. Why? Because the Spurs need to preserve the few effective bigs (Duncan and Splitter) that they have for the playoffs. Bonner can spell either of them in less important games and hit some threes along the way to buy time for them to rest.

The problem comes when that strategy does not get revised in the playoffs.

It's hard to change your stripes in the playoffs. That's why I don't like relying on Bonner in the regular season. He's a one dimensional player that plays alot of minutes and is rendered useless in the playoffs. If Duncan was younger his post scoring and defense could make up for Bonner's lack of it. But as he's gotten older the team needs more post scoring and defense.

[SpurNation]

Right now we only have Tiago but Pop doesn't believe in him because he doesn't spread the floor.

I don't think that be true. Pop has to...as pointed out in the charts and graphs...manipulate Splitters time to best get the most production he can get from the team as a whole.

[Obstructed_View]

As for Bonner's defense, the problem isn't necessarily that he's a terrible defender. The problem is people THINK he's a terrible defender, and thus go right at him every game with confidence. At this level what separates the great from the good and the good from the average is often confidence. Every guy who goes against Bonner thinks he's gonna dominate him. Also, Bonner gives up too many offensive rebounds and the refs give him zero respect.

It's also the difference between being a really good team defender and being a really good individual defender. Bonner is one and not the other. Once his opponent has the ball against him, they're probably going to score if he can't get them to give up the ball. Getting no respect from the zebras also hurts him because he doesn't have length or jumping ability.

Personally, I'd like to see Bonner figure that he's going to get whistled anyway and just foul when someone gets over on him. Ducking away or just keeping his hands in the air while he looks at the ref isn't doing him any good. One of the best ways to discourage guys from going at you is to make them hurt enough to think about it before they come back.

[therealtruth]

Matt Bonner Points Per 36 Minutes





Matt Bonner Three-Point Percentage





Matt Bonner Threes Made Per 36 Minutes



So, in the playoffs, Bonner's defense crumbles and his three-point shooting becomes pedestrian ... to put it nicely.

The only somewhat positive I can take away from those three charts is Bonner's increasing points per minute numbers in the playoffs. While that could be a sign that he might be choking less, a closer looks makes it appear to more of a fluke: Last year in the playoffs, he was 8-for-10 at the free throw line in 123 minutes. Considering that this year in the regular season he has shot only 14 total free throws in 547 minutes, we can't exactly count on Bonner's points getting inflated due to him getting to the charity stripe.

IMO, while his three-point percentage in the playoffs is troubling, the fact that he makes much less in the playoffs is even more troubling. Although both probably trail in the "troubling" department when compared to his defense.

The Bonner Conundrum would be comical if it wasn't so sad. He's a damn useful player in the regular season but then becomes useless in the playoffs. Do you take the 5 or 6 bonus wins he gives you in the regular season even though he won't help you in the playoffs? Pop obviously thinks so. Personally, I'd rather take the regular season losses and give minutes to a player who could actually help in the playoffs ... but that's easy to say on the outside looking in.

I don't know if it's realistic to expect Bonner to be able to match his RS 3pt shooting percentage. Few players do. That's just the reality of playoff basketball. Less attempts that have more meaning. Really the best you can hope is a player hits the shots when it counts.

[Obstructed_View]

I've always said Bonner could be used as an "innings eater" starting pitcher in baseball.

The "innings eater" is the fifth starter who protects your stud pitchers from too many innings until the post-season starts.

Then you put the "innings eater" in the bull pen (long relief). In other words, you never see him again unless the game is a blowout either way.

Bonner could be a great "innings eater" for the Spurs. Why? Because the Spurs need to preserve the few effective bigs (Duncan and Splitter) that they have for the playoffs. Bonner can spell either of them in less important games and hit some threes along the way to buy time for them to rest.

The problem comes when that strategy does not get revised in the playoffs.

I agree with this. This season it looks like he's going to have at least one lineup that excels with him, so I'd like to see him get a try in the postseason with it. Otherwise, there are other guys that can soak up his minutes.

[Obstructed_View]

What are some possible explanations? Is anyone going to claim small sample size? Does the above graph make Bonner regular season fool's gold?

Lottery teams don't typically have bigs that can iso on him because if they have one decent big Duncan takes him. Playoff offenses go inside more and exploit matchups. Since Bonner has been on the team the Spurs have run a lot of their offense outside in instead of inside out, which just kills any chance of Bonner having a chance to shoot.

[therealtruth]

Those would have been my guesses before seeing the numbers. Interesting that the numbers back it up.

Yeah, that's the question. I personally think it's a lack of chemistry. But even though I really, really believe that ... it's obviously not something anyone can prove.

We've seen Duncan play well with Oberto so it can definitely work. Splitter is a more skilled Oberto.

[therealtruth]

I was claiming small sample size up until about a postseason or two ago. It was easy to claim small sample size when he had played 132 playoff minutes (through '08-09). Not so much now that he has played 429 playoff minutes.

As far as possible explanations, I can think of a few, but none of them are particularly encouraging or solvable. Can't play under pressure? Increased level of compe ion in the playoffs? Different style of play in the NBA in the playoffs?

The only one I can currently think of that is remotely optimistic is that maybe the Spurs didn't match up with the right teams for Bonner's style of play. While that gives you a little hope that he can contribute in certain series, it doesn't bode well for anything resembling a le run.

That's a good point and Pop has to recognize whether Bonner will be useful in a playoff series. Stojakovic killed the Lakers in the playoffs but was much less useful against the Heat. I think Carlisle saved the Mavs by removing him from the rotation.

[Obstructed_View]

We've seen Duncan play well with Oberto so it can definitely work. Splitter is a more skilled Oberto.

Difference is Oberto was 20 feet from the basket and Duncan was on the low block. You've got to convince Duncan that he can function out high when he's in with Splitter. The plate is all set for it, particularly with Duncan's really good outside shooting. Once those two discover the high/low that Duncan and Robinson used to live off, all bets are off.

[timvp]

The most useful graph would likely be trend lines on the +/- of each big man combo against time. Are there game by game splits available that show the stats listed in the OP on a game by game basis?

Looked into it but not really possible without doing a lot of leg work. Although that did give me the idea to look at the same stats from last year and compare them to this year . . .

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, I figured as much. I'm pretty sure what you would see is a drop off of Blair Duncan and a pretty damn big rise in Splitter Bonner but I doubt many others would change too much. Maybe Bonner Duncan a bit more.

[anonoftheinternets]

Matt Bonner Points Per 36 Minutes





Matt Bonner Three-Point Percentage





Matt Bonner Threes Made Per 36 Minutes



So, in the playoffs, Bonner's defense crumbles and his three-point shooting becomes pedestrian ... to put it nicely.

The only somewhat positive I can take away from those three charts is Bonner's increasing points per minute numbers in the playoffs. While that could be a sign that he might be choking less, a closer looks makes it appear to more of a fluke: Last year in the playoffs, he was 8-for-10 at the free throw line in 123 minutes. Considering that this year in the regular season he has shot only 14 total free throws in 547 minutes, we can't exactly count on Bonner's points getting inflated due to him getting to the charity stripe.

IMO, while his three-point percentage in the playoffs is troubling, the fact that he makes much less in the playoffs is even more troubling. Although both probably trail in the "troubling" department when compared to his defense.

The Bonner Conundrum would be comical if it wasn't so sad. He's a damn useful player in the regular season but then becomes useless in the playoffs. Do you take the 5 or 6 bonus wins he gives you in the regular season even though he won't help you in the playoffs? Pop obviously thinks so. Personally, I'd rather take the regular season losses and give minutes to a player who could actually help in the playoffs ... but that's easy to say on the outside looking in.

Well we should obviously compare that to how the rest of the spurs outside manu hit their threes in the last 3 years before coming to that conclusion. Maybe teams stay at home on the three point shooters and dont double parker/duncan more in the PO so the wide open three's are more difficult to come by...

[timvp]

This charts shows the points per 100 possessions the Spurs score when the different bigman combinations are on the court. As a team, the Spurs average 106.0 points per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.

This charts shows the points per 100 possessions the Spurs scored last year when the different bigman combinations were on the court. As a team, the Spurs averaged 111.4 points per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.

This charts shows the points per 100 possessions the Spurs allow when the different bigman combinations are on the court. As a team, the Spurs average 101.3 points allowed per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.

This charts shows the points per 100 possessions the Spurs allowed last year when the different bigman combinations were on the court. As a team, the Spurs averaged 105.0 points allowed per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.

This charts shows how many points the Spurs outscore their opponents per 100 possessions when the different bigman combinations are on the court. As a team, the Spurs outscore their opponents by 4.7 points per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.

This charts shows how many points the Spurs outscored their opponents last year per 100 possessions when the different bigman combinations were on the court. As a team, the Spurs outscored their opponents by 6.3 points per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.

[timvp]

Thoughts when comparing last year to this year:

-Duncan was a beast on offense and defense with each pairing. I haven't looked yet but the pairing of Duncan and McDyess must have been pretty bad or else Duncan's plus/minus would have been through the roof.

-Blair needing Duncan next to him to not be a disaster on defense is consistent.

-It's pretty safe to say Pop should never play Blair next to Bonner or Blair with small ball.

-Duncan and Splitter's stats last year look good but the sample size was really small. (I'll post all the details later.)

-Splitter and Bonner being good together is nothing new.

-Small ball works ... as long as Duncan is the big.

-And probably most importantly, if the coaching staff looked at these numbers in the offseason, starting Duncan and Blair and backing them up with Splitter and Bonner was mathematically the way to go ... as long as they wanted to go four bigs deep.

Still don't agree with not starting Duncan and Splitter together but I guess if the goal is to maximize Blair and Bonner, the coaches are using the right alignment.

[underdawg]

y'all are funny - if you think the improvement in defense this year (ranked 12th) has a lot to do with Bonner keep believing. Didn't we see similar stats last year (maybe Timvp just posted them again) about the best bigman combo being Duncan and Bonner? How did that work out?
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say that these stats show that Bonner plays good defense - what do you attribute that to based on Bonner's abilities? Is it purely because of his rotations, is it his post up defense or even defense on bigs outside the paint?
I can't explain the stats and while I won't argue with them, I don't believe Bonner has much to do with the defense improving this year. The biggest factors I see watching the game have been the overall play has improved, but mostly the strong defensive effort from Leonard, Green and Tiago. I understand there might not be stats to show that, but I'll say it now - if Tiago and Leonard are not getting major minutes by the playoffs the Spurs will have a tough time getting out of the first round. The Big 3 are no longer effective enough on offense to beat teams in the playoffs without also having a good defense to help out.

[underdawg]

Thoughts when comparing last year to this year:

-Duncan was a beast on offense and defense with each pairing. I haven't looked yet but the pairing of Duncan and McDyess must have been pretty bad or else Duncan's plus/minus would have been through the roof.

-Blair needing Duncan next to him to not be a disaster on defense is consistent.

-It's pretty safe to say Pop should never play Blair next to Bonner or Blair with small ball.

-Duncan and Splitter's stats last year look good but the sample size was really small. (I'll post all the details later.)

-Splitter and Bonner being good together is nothing new.

-Small ball works ... as long as Duncan is the big.

-And probably most importantly, if the coaching staff looked at these numbers in the offseason, starting Duncan and Blair and backing them up with Splitter and Bonner was mathematically the way to go ... as long as they wanted to go four bigs deep.

Still don't agree with not starting Duncan and Splitter together but I guess if the goal is to maximize Blair and Bonner, the coaches are using the right alignment.

I understand that you're just making observations based on the stats, but can we agree that:
-small ball has not been mostly successful for the Spurs in the playoffs
-large minutes for Bonner in the playoffs has not been successful
-as the Spurs defense has dramtically declined, their performance in the playoffs has declined just as dramtically.
-the Spurs currently have 2 "go to" options and recently in the playoffs if Manu and Tony are shut out of the paint and their shots are not falling, the Spurs could not score.

Playing Bonner large minutes in the season makes no sense (stats aside) if he is incapable of translating his regular season success into the playoffs. Even when he's played well - he doesn't do enough to fill in the holes that are left by 1 or 2 of the big 3 being off or shut down. That's happened more and more over the past few years in the playoffs and at this point, Taigo and Leonard seem to be the only hope to remedy not having a full strength of the big 3 on offense/defense. So basically, these stats don't mean crap when it really counts.

[therealtruth]

y'all are funny - if you think the improvement in defense this year (ranked 12th) has a lot to do with Bonner keep believing. Didn't we see similar stats last year (maybe Timvp just posted them again) about the best bigman combo being Duncan and Bonner? How did that work out?
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say that these stats show that Bonner plays good defense - what do you attribute that to based on Bonner's abilities? Is it purely because of his rotations, is it his post up defense or even defense on bigs outside the paint?
I can't explain the stats and while I won't argue with them, I don't believe Bonner has much to do with the defense improving this year. The biggest factors I see watching the game have been the overall play has improved, but mostly the strong defensive effort from Leonard, Green and Tiago. I understand there might not be stats to show that, but I'll say it now - if Tiago and Leonard are not getting major minutes by the playoffs the Spurs will have a tough time getting out of the first round. The Big 3 are no longer effective enough on offense to beat teams in the playoffs without also having a good defense to help out.

Bonner's defense stats are good because he's surrounded by good defenders.

[Keepin' it real]

Given that Bonner is serviceable in the regular season but flops in the playoffs, that's why i say milk him for reg season wins to get a higher seed, but in the playoffs, change it up: run a couple of plays for him, if he hits his 3s, keep him in ... but if he's typical playoff bonner (shrinking in the moment), bench him till the next game.

We all know the bench gets shorter in the playoffs. Bonner should be the first to spend more time on the bench unless he drains his first couple of 3s in each game.

[Leetonidas]

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMa...radeId=7grgbgf

Let's do it

[Borosai]

For the sake of efficiency of distribution, Matty should just start selling his as hair gel.

[underdawg]

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMa...radeId=7grgbgf

Let's do it

Here you go - Toronto does this deal because of Bonner's defensive prowess:
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMa...radeId=8ymst3y

[ElNono]

One other factor that also needs to be taken into account is that with Kawhi and Green our perimeter defense has also improved somewhat from last season, which puts less of a pressure on our bigs. Those guys (especially Kawhi) have also been rebounding at very good rates.

Which would both partially explain guys like Bonner being more serviceable (Matt has tremendous problems when he's being directly attacked by perimeter guys, the good old backpedal-hands up defense, which hasn't features as much this season so far) and also makes Blair's pathetic effort on D even more inexcusable.

[angelbelow]

Thoughts when comparing last year to this year:

-Duncan was a beast on offense and defense with each pairing. I haven't looked yet but the pairing of Duncan and McDyess must have been pretty bad or else Duncan's plus/minus would have been through the roof.

-Blair needing Duncan next to him to not be a disaster on defense is consistent.

-It's pretty safe to say Pop should never play Blair next to Bonner or Blair with small ball.

-Duncan and Splitter's stats last year look good but the sample size was really small. (I'll post all the details later.)

-Splitter and Bonner being good together is nothing new.

-Small ball works ... as long as Duncan is the big.

-And probably most importantly, if the coaching staff looked at these numbers in the offseason, starting Duncan and Blair and backing them up with Splitter and Bonner was mathematically the way to go ... as long as they wanted to go four bigs deep.

Still don't agree with not starting Duncan and Splitter together but I guess if the goal is to maximize Blair and Bonner, the coaches are using the right alignment.

Damn, nice work.

[100%duncan]

great work timvp. IMO, I'll go with Duncan and Splitter most of the times in big games

[TDMVPDPOY]

duncan needs to accept that dice/robinson role where his just another role player on the court and take a seat back to splitter....