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Exactly.
At the end of the day there is really 1 solution to this whole thing and that is to acquire another big who can play.
By the way, this is in agreement with Chump, and as a response to the OP he the above is responding to.
Timvp has elucidated the conundrum, although he still agrees (paradoxically) with those wanting splitter to get more minutes with Duncan. Here is the problem, in case you missed the bigman combinations: the Raw Numbers, here is a summary:
Splitter has no mid-range game. If he is going to play with Duncan, duncan gets no touches in the post during their time together, because Splitter's man will just sag off him knowing Splitter is no threat. Counter-point is that Blair also has no mid-range game.
However, the defensive pairing of Blair/Duncan, coupled with Splitter/Bonner, is the best combination of +/-, considering a 4 bigman rotation.
Tjastal (or whatever) has suggested 27 minutes between Duncan/Splitter/Bonner. That is suicide long-term. Plus for a 3 man rotation, you get 32 minutes each. Regardless, that is going to result is a very high minute 3 man rotation, and no team does that. NONE. Why is that? Because your bigmen are going to get hurt playing that many minutes, unless they are 20 years old.
Keep in mind: the most productive pairing is bonner/Splitter. Second is Duncan/bonner, and third is duncan/small ball. Using those combinations the most makes sense.
When you spew your rants regarding Splitter, who I am a huge fan of and who I want to play more, please consider the above, and raise the level of discussion instead of just thrashing around with no contribution to the collective knowledge.
Thanks.
Last edited by spursfaninla; 02-14-2012 at 05:14 PM.
Exactly.
At the end of the day there is really 1 solution to this whole thing and that is to acquire another big who can play.
Beyond 15 ft.
Guy, we all know the advanced stats.
I honestly have no idea why. Maybe last years numbers were a fluke? I think the main point is we saw the need, and it appears inevitable again, to play Tim/Tiago together more in the playoffs. Rotations tighten and minutes rise in the playoffs for your best players and I think they need to be prepared.
The only reason that makes sense to me why we see so little of Tim/Tiago is because they feel the benefit of having a better starting 5 isnt offset by the damage to the bench. But in the playoffs it will likely be a 3 man rotation anyways (majority of minutes played). That or maybe they are confident of a trade or signing to pair next to Tim and don't feel the need to address this Tiago issue.
Yeah, well, you would think that. But tjastal, and others, keep posting about how we should be doing something different than what we are doing, when the data actually shows we are maximizing our bigmen personnel given a compressed schedule and an aging duncan.
People WISH there was a better answer, a simple answer, like PLAY SPLITTER MORE MINUTES. I want that answer, too. I am afraid it means less duncan, which might be ok. But basically every minute splitter is out there, so is BONNER.
And I don't know what we use for a trade. We gut this team to get a defensive bigman with an outside jumper.
Pop said he was dumb for not playing Oberto with Tim more and that lineup had the same issues. Blair has the same issues. I think the point is that the emphasis on fielding the best defensive team the majority of minutes is possibly being over looked bc everyone is focused on the possibilities of offensive short comings said lineup might create.
If only we had another big who takes 75% of his shot attempts from the jump shot range other than Bonner.. oh wait..
Pulling off a trade right now would be a both a luxury and a need, not a solution. Need for obvious reasons but a luxury because would have to overpay due to our lack of assets.
Why is it inevitable to play duncan/splitter in the playoffs? What makes you think that is going to actually work in practice? Because so far, it does not seem to work.
Specifically, I mean, what do you envision being the post-play strategy on offense with this tandem? Isn't it going to make offense predictable to have duncan away from the basket 3/4 of the game, and splitter camped there?
Additionally, starting Splitter and Duncan would mean that Parker and Ginobili are there too. Impossible for the offense to be stagnant with 4 of our best scorers/playmakers. Splitters pick and roll is growing each and every game with Parker and was already strong with Ginobili. Tiago is also the superior finisher compared to Blair and is statistically less of a black-hole then Blair and to a lesser extent Duncan.
At the end of the day Duncan/Splitter combo isn't guaranteed to work but its damn well worth a shot.
If they got the right player, why would it not be a solution?
I will grant that Manu's presence could change the current state of the Tim/Tiago combo, but isn't the bench productive in no small part to Splitter's presence in that lineup?
We were discussing this argument about Splitter last week, right here.
NSSN.
This guy is just a parasite visiting ST and extracting ideas.
27 minutes is suicide? Whaaaat? Really? I guess Mark & Pau Gasol must be the walking dead already, since they log 37 a game. Dirk & Bynum too. And about 50 other bigs that are currently logging 30+ a game.
This is ridiculous to treat our guys like big babies who cannot handle even lower end spectrum minutes.
I got an idea for you however. Go apply with schtickkk down at 48MOH.
Ok, that is fair. But, does the data back that up? Consider that blair/bonner, though both poor defenders, are different than duncan or splitter, in that they are more likely to be effective at defending a quicker, smaller power forward who has a mid-range shot.
Summary of points allowed for each combination of players:
Duncan/splitter
103.87 points allowed per 100 possessions
Duncan/bonner
95.13 points allowed per 100 possessions
splitter/bonner
99.07 points allowed per 100 possessions
duncan/blair
100.74 points allowed per 100 possessions
How is splitter/duncan the best defensive combination? I understand from a COMMON SENSE place, where they are the best individual bigmen defenders, that having them together would result in the best team defensive result. However, that is not happening.
Now, explain why you think more minutes together changes the above. I have given my hypothesis about why: power forwards. response?
You were just complaining about Tim's wearing down.
Recent history refresher course:
2008: Boston won a le with 6'10" Perkins and 7'1" Garnett.
2009-10: LA won 2 with Bynum & Gasol, a pair of 7 footers.
2011 Mavvies won a le last year starting two 7 footers.
See a pattern here?
Yeah, each of those had a player with a reliable perimeter game.
Duncan is 36. Gasol(s) are 27 and 31. Memphis has an injured big that Marc needs to make up for, and the Lakers are stupidly overplaying Kobe and Gasol.
I think Splitter should be playing more minutes. I just don't know how to make it happen given the DATA.
BTW, the best comparison to duncan in age, among the guys you listed, is DIRK, and he is averaging 32.5 minutes a game. Still does not explain how to make duncan and Splitter coexist in any case.
Big IF imo. I don't consider the trading route a solution to our problems because its too problematic and idealistic to assume one. How many attainable bigs do you think would fit with our team and be able to take 15-20 minutes right away? We've heard Amir Johnson, but he doesn't shoot from 15, we've heard Ed Davis, but he's not good from 15..
Bench production is definitely a concern, however just because Splitter is in the starting line up doesn't hes banned from playing with the bench unit. By presence I assume you mean offensively? Because Neal spent most of the season ignoring Splitter in the post, actually most of the 2nd unit did. His main contribution was on defense. Splitter has been most effective when teamed up with Tony Parker, Green, Neal and Bonner. Next in line when teamed up with RJ, Parker, Bonner and Green. A mixture of starters and bench players.I will grant that Manu's presence could change the current state of the Tim/Tiago combo, but isn't the bench productive in no small part to Splitter's presence in that lineup?
The pattern is you wish duncan/splitter fit. The data says they perform poorly together. You have nothing else to add other than comparing splitter and duncan to other teams, stating that have the two tallest guys on the floor at the same time = championships. Wow. Everyone tell Timvp that he wasted a bunch of time looking up the numbers.
Only one man really knows why Splitter is getting 21 mpg and I don't expect him to tell us anytime soon as to why.
I know as well as anyone the improbability of trades, but we can dream.
Yeah, but now you're going off of what is actually working now, which you apparently want to change to something that up to now has not worked this season, in hopes that it will work in the playoffs.Bench production is definitely a concern, however just because Splitter is in the starting line up doesn't hes banned from playing with the bench unit. By presence I assume you mean offensively? Because Neal spent most of the season ignoring Splitter in the post, actually most of the 2nd unit did. His main contribution was on defense. Splitter has been most effective when teamed up with Tony Parker, Green, Neal and Bonner. Next in line when teamed up with RJ, Parker, Bonner and Green. A mixture of starters and bench players.
It's confusing.
Uh...
I've never seen Bynum take a jumpshot beyond 5 feet. Perkins has never taken a jumpshot in his lifetime. Tyson Chandler dunks the ball 9/10 times.
You been playing with Daddy's paint cans again?
I'll let you read it again so you can see where you made your mistake.
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