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I think the condensed schedule has hurt the Spurs defensively. Think about it. Defense is more about energy and after playing so many games consecutively something has to give.
Before the season, if you would have told me Manu Ginobili would miss 25 of the first 34 games for the Spurs, I would have thought the team would be in a world of hurt. Ginobili, especially in the last couple seasons, had become such a vital cog in the machine that it was inconceivable that the Spurs could be fine without him. But at 24-10, the Spurs are more than fine. At the All-Star break, San Antonio sits comfortably in the second spot in a stacked Western Conference.
How have the Spurs done it? To put it simply, Tony Parker has stepped up and is playing some of the best basketball of his career. The All-Star is not only scoring but he's setting up his teammates better than ever. The Spurs have given him the ball more and Parker has flourished. Due to his efforts, the Spurs have the fifth most efficient offense in the NBA.
Unfortunately, the performance on the other side of the court hasn't been as successful. Not long ago, the Spurs were always one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. This season? San Antonio is below average for the first time in the Tim Duncan era. Last year, they were 11th in the league in defense. The 2012 Spurs have dropped even further and now sit 16th overall on D.
In this graph, you can see how the Spurs have gone from elite to sub par.
(In each of the following graphs, 100 is set to league average.)
What is wrong with the Spurs defense this season? The answer is complicated. San Antonio's defensive system requires a lot of precision and there are many moving parts. The basics of how the Spurs defense is supposed to work are as follows:
-Ballhandlers are pressured enough to avoid giving up open shots but not enough to pick up cheap fouls.
-When a ballhandler looks to drive, the Spurs force that ballhandler to drive toward the baseline.
-When a ballhandler is driving, perimeter help defenders whose man is beyond the three-point line are to stick to their man and not offer help.
-When a ballhandler is driving, a bigman is to rotate over and challenge any attempt near the rim.
-Any Spurs player below the free throw line is expected to aggressively crash the boards to limit the number of offensive rebounds allowed.
While a lot of the defensive stats have slipped over the years, there remain a few bright spots. Let's begin there.
First of all, the Spurs of today remain a great defensive rebounding team.
Currently, the Spurs are the second best defensive rebounding squad in the NBA. And though they aren't up to their 2009 standards, it must be mentioned that the 2009 Spurs were the best defensive rebounding team in NBA history, so that bar is unfairly high. As is, the Spurs of today rebound well enough to be a great defensive team.
Avoiding fouls and avoid sending the opponent to the free throw line is also a key to the Spurs defensive philosophy. This year, the Spurs have been really good at doing just that; their drop in defensive efficiency doesn't have anything to do with too many free throws.
A third strength, which is actually surprising, is the fact that the 2012 Spurs are doing a really good job of not allowing opponents to attempt shots at the rim.
However, if you've watched the Spurs this season, you probably recognize that there is something fishy with that number. The bigs this season simply aren't defending the rim as well as Spurs teams of the best. A closer look proves that this number isn't as impressive as it appears at first glance.
As you can see in the chart above, the Spurs are now a below average team in terms of FG% allowed at the rim. If the Spurs are worse than ever at defending the rim, why are teams not exploiting that weakness more often? The answer is obvious in the statistics: the Spurs are sending a lot more help from the perimeter in an attempt to patch this weakness.
Arguably the ultimate strength of the Spurs defense over the years has been the team's ability to limit three-point field goals. They've been ridiculously good at doing so, mostly because the Spurs rarely send help. But this season, as you can see in the graph below, the Spurs are no longer elite when it comes to limiting three-pointers and that's due to being forced to pack the paint.
And though the Spurs are doing a good job of denying made shots right at the rim, their inability to defend shots from the 4-to-10 feet range remains poor. It fell off last season and is slightly worse this season. Shots from this range usually include attempts from bigmen posting up and smaller players shooting runners in the lane.
Perhaps the most jaw-dropping difference between this year's team and the Spurs teams of the past can be seen in the following chart. This year, the Spurs are really bad at defending two-pointers outside of ten feet. It's especially troubling because the Spurs had been improving in this area in recent years.
Stats from Synergy Sports offer a clue for why the Spurs are having trouble defending long two-pointers. According to the Synergy Sports numbers, the Spurs are among the four worst teams in the NBA at defending pick-and-rolls (27th), isolations (28th) and shots created off of screens (30th).
So, what can the Spurs do to reclaim their defensive glory of yesteryear? First, I don't think the Spurs can reasonably expect to improve much in this lockout condensed season in which practices are at a premium. An attainable goal may be to play as well defensively as they did last season. While doing that wouldn't make the Spurs anything close to a championship favorite, it'd give San Antonio a fighting chance come the postseason. A slightly above average defense could be enough to make noise -- as long as the offense is elite.
The key to any defensive improvement is to shore up the defense in the paint. The Spurs defensive philosophy relies on bigmen who are able to defend the rim because the perimeter players are asked to funnel ballhandlers toward the basket. If the bigmen don't do their job and require help, you see the type of breakdowns witnessed this season.
One possible solution would be to trade for a shotblocker. As you can view in the following graph, the Spurs haven't been the same since their shotblocking stopped being a strength.
I can't say it's a complete coincidence that the Spurs have stopped winning championships ever since their shotblocking fell off the map. That said, trading for a shotblocking isn't simple because that shotblocker would have to also allow the Spurs to remain elite on the offensive end. Shotblockers who are also capable offensively are rare -- and usually rather expensive.
A second possible solution is to alter the rotation to play the best defensive bigmen as much as possible. In other words, start Tiago Splitter next to Tim Duncan. They are obviously the two best defensive bigmen on the Spurs and the team's best two shotblockers. The hope would be the duo could shore up the middle and then a trickle down effect will be felt everywhere else defensively.
The third solution is to hope against hope that the defense as currently constructed can improve. In this scenario, you'd have to believe that the shooting on two-pointers outside of ten feet is a fluke and once that number normalizes, the defense can return to last year's level. You'd also have to believe that the personnel has a lot of room for growth and that there is enough time to reach the potential.
Personally, I'd prefer one of the first two solutions. Perhaps that long two-pointer percentage will regress a bit but I don't think it'd be wise to bet the season on that happening.
I think the condensed schedule has hurt the Spurs defensively. Think about it. Defense is more about energy and after playing so many games consecutively something has to give.
Timvp, trading for a shot blocker shouldn't impact the offense too much because they would be replacing Blair. While Blair's offensive numbers aren't bad, they aren't impactful numbers on a consistent basis.
Who do you think would be some reasonable targets for a shot blocker and do you think the Spurs will address this issue in a meaningful way?
Thanks for the excellent writeup timvp. Your analysis basically explains why the Grizzlies won last year. The weakness in the middle required the perimeter players to help so much that the Spurs advantage on the perimeter with TP/Manu was negated. If they had enough good defensive bigs and didn't help so much I think the Spurs would have had much less trouble.One possible solution would be to trade for a shotblocker. As you can view in the following graph, the Spurs haven't been the same since their shotblocking stopped being a strength.
I can't say it's a complete coincidence that the Spurs have stopped winning championships ever since their shotblocking fell off the map. That said, trading for a shotblocking isn't simple because that shotblocker would have to also allow the Spurs to remain elite on the offensive end. Shotblockers who are also capable offensively are rare -- and usually rather expensive.
A second possible solution is to alter the rotation to play the best defensive bigmen as much as possible. In other words, start Tiago Splitter next to Tim Duncan. They are obviously the two best defensive bigmen on the Spurs and the team's best two shotblockers. The hope would be the duo could shore up the middle and then a trickle down effect will be felt everywhere else defensively.
The third solution is to hope against hope that the defense as currently constructed can improve. In this scenario, you'd have to believe that the shooting on two-pointers outside of ten feet is a fluke and once that number normalizes, the defense can return to last year's level. You'd also have to believe that the personnel has a lot of room for growth and that there is enough time to reach the potential.
Personally, I'd prefer one of the first two solutions. Perhaps that long two-pointer percentage will regress a bit but I don't think it'd be wise to bet the season on that happening.
I've been advocating position two since the beginning of last season. However for that to happen the Spurs need to pickup a veteran big man who can defend and rebound and hit the midrange jumper like Dice. They had one last season in Dice but chose not to play Splitter.
I think the only hope the defense has of becoming championship caliber is getting TD and TS to work together. They have the ability to force the opponent into tougher shots. Also that combo has the potential to punish opponents for playing small ball.
The solution isn't to add a shot-blocker or to start Splitter, it's both.
For example, a player like Robin Lopez is in the doghouse with Phoenix. He played 8.4 mpg in February. Blair + Anderson for Lopez works salary wise and I can really see Suns liking this trade. After that move, Spurs would start Splitter with Duncan. Bonner and Lopez would be backups.
The starting SG/SF combination should also change with Ginobili healthy.
great writeup
Defense isn't an en y unto itself. Defense is keyed to your personnel who have to perform their assigned roles. Most of the fall off over the past two years is because we don't have a very good defensive center.
Blair is simply overmatched too many times in too many games by too many people. Whose defensive rebounding has fallen off from last year? I've seen more athletic players simply jump higher and go over Blair to snare rebounds. His defensive lapses at the rim and lack of mobility to defend in that critical 4-10 ft range have been exposed this year for whatever reason. Maybe the league is just catching on to Blair's limitations.
You can't expect a defense that is predicated on the big men rotating over and defending the rim to work with Blair as our starting center, operating against the cream of the NBA centers.
So we aren't going to be the same old defensive Spurs and the overall game strategy will have to change to allow for that.
Bruno, I would love that trade, but do you think the Spurs make such a move in reality? Basically, what are the odds the Spurs actually make a trade in your opinion and what would be the hold up in a scenario like you brought up? I feel the Spurs seem to feel pretty good about their chances as is.
great writeup, thanks timvp.
IMO, the defense is what it is. Sure they can get a little bit better as the season progresses but that's not gonna happen as long as guys like RJ/Bonner/Blair get regular minutes or even two out of those three.
TP/Manu/Kawhi/Tiago/TD is an above average defensive lineup, at least on paper. But I highly doubt Pop will trust that lineup in the POs unless Kawhi all of a sudden becomes a lights out shooter or the offense is run through Tiago. Neither are likely to happen.
that said, i think it's good enough to get this team to the 2nd round or WCF. But the only chance this team has to get to the Finals or a championship is if it shoots lights out from 3.
Great write-up and analysis timpv. I hope you are right and the team finds someone that can fill that role.
Pop doesn't like Blair and is certainly isn't fine with being to have him as a starter. Pop also doesn't seem comfortable with Pairing Tiago and Tim. At the end, it's up to what Pop dislikes the less. If it's pairing Tiago and Tim, as it should be, then I can really see Spurs doing a trade like that.
Don't forget that Spurs went after Kenyon Martin. It quite shows that they aren't fully pleased with what they have.
Thanks for the writeup Tim.
I should have clarified; I meant via trade and adding to vs taking away. Kenyon would have simply added to what they have, while a trade would be subtraction of something to bring in something else. That is what I meant when I said I get the feeling they are comfortable with what they have.
Well, I disagree.
Martin isn't an end of the bench player who would have been signed to have some depth. He would have played a solid amount of minutes with Spurs and he would have pushed a player (likely Blair) out of the rotation. Spurs certainly aren't that comfortable with what they have if they were ready to add a player who would have changed their rotation.
Nice write-up. I think they are making steady improvement on defense but have probably reached their ceiling. I just can't see this team being an elite defensive team with Blair/Bonner getting as many minutes as they do. I hope a deal can be worked out for defensive big. R. Lopez would be perfect in my book and suggested that same trade scenario in another thread. I don't expect the Suns to resign him since they have Gortat in the fold. However, they may not be interested in Blair/Anderson.
I wonder how much Pop is willing to change the rotation for better defense. I think his Bonner love and insistence on spacing the floor won't allow him. Otherwise Splitter would have been starting from day 1 last year.
Timvp - this season the Spurs have had recurring problems with guys having career (or near-career) nights against them. At times it seems like a fluke, i.e. Ben Wallace sinking a long jumper and a 3-pointer in rapid succession. But when something keeps happening, it gets harder to believe it can be coincidence. I'd like to hear your thoughts.
Here's the specific thing I'm trying to get my head around: when mid-level players continue to have their best shooting nights of the season (sometimes several seasons) against the Spurs, the inference is that this defense is potentially worse than any other that they face. After all, if they could shoot like that against other teams, their numbers would look better, and they would be star-level players. I know guys just get hot sometimes. But that many guys don't randomly get hot against one team. It's got to have something to do with the defense.
The numbers indicate that the Spurs defense has fallen to below-average, which I can't argue with. But is there some aspect at which they are basement-level? Otherwise, how do you explain the frequent breakout games?
I'm curious what people think of Leonard's defense. I remember a few articles that both praised his post defense and highlighted his weakness on defending penetration and PnR (iirc). Most people here seem to think he's a good (with potential to be great) perimeter defender. I hope that's actually true. I remember him pressuring Rudy Gay and Durant well. My hope is that his individual defense against star players will shine in the playoffs, where isolations seem to happen more often.
As for the team defense, I'm somewhat surprised to see it regress because it feels like we have better individual defenders compared to last year: Leonard, Splitter (now that he's playing) and Green.
GSH, those 3 stats within the defensive metrics explain a lot: PnR, Iso's & Screen defense.
Didn't the defense philosophy change to allowing long two's since it's the least efficient shot? There's no point forcing players towards the shot blockers when TD and TS are the only shot blockers and they don't play together. Even if we saw more TD and TS and/or we got another shot blocker it seems the defensive principles would have to change.
Gay.
Ah. A couple of sentences under that chart, and I guess I sort of scanned over them. Yeah, that'll do it. Those are definitely bottom-of-the-barrel stats. And that's what the results look like.
It's just hard to believe that the Spurs could be with the worst in the league in a defensive stat. It's those things that are just killing them. You're going to give up points to the Durants and Kevin Martins. But giving up 26 to Jarret Jack? That's just hard to believe from the Spurs.
BTW, timvp, speaking of synergy sports stats, you should take a look at Spurs offensive numbers. They are quite interesting.
For people interested:
link: http://www.mysynergysports.com/syner...purs&home=heat then click on "Go To Plays"
Interesting thought but it doesn't quite fit what we're seeing:
1. Offenses around the league are much worse than they were last season. If anything, that shows scoring is more effected by the condensed schedule than defense.
2. Pop is spreading the minutes so well that no one on the Spurs should be more tired than the average player on a random team.
3. Duncan and Parker have probably been pushed the hardest but their defensive numbers are the best on the team.
4. The Spurs defense has been better lately after starting slow. If the condensed schedule was at fault, it would have been the other way around.
timvp, does that 2011-2012 data factor out the Portland game Pop "tanked"...??? I imagine that one game goes a long way in making our defense look worse...
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