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I like your idea of keeping Timmy and Manu for as long as possible. I don't think Tony and Tiago will ever stay healthy to carry us during the reg season. We need a big desperately.
Typically, we Spurs fans end up talking about the pros and cons of different rebuilding strategies following a disheartening playoff loss. Let's try something else. Let's try talking about rebuilding when everything is going well. Considering that the Spurs have won their last 12* games, things really couldn't be going much better.
In the past, I thought that the best way to rebuild would be to tear everything down completely once the run is over and then rebuild through the draft. More specifically, I believed the smartest thing to do would be to trade Tony Parker and any other asset once Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili's time was over. I also was against the idea of holding on for as long as possible because I didn't see the value of wasting years in no man's land.
But now, I'm starting to think a different way. Here would be my rebuilding strategy:
-Keep Duncan and Ginobili as long as possible. Both have deserved a lot more money than the Spurs have paid out over the years, so I don't really have any monetary concerns regarding these two. At the end of this season, I'd let Duncan name his price. If he wants to take a pay cut in order to bring in other talent, that'd be great. If he not, that's fine -- he should still be re-signed. Same with Ginobili at the end of next season if he wants to keep playing.
-Eventually, have the team revolve around Tony Parker and Tiago Splitter. While it's doubtful those two are good enough to contend for a championship, this season has given me hope that Parker and Splitter could become a playoff level tandem. They run the pick-and-roll beautifully and they are young enough to have another five solid seasons together.
-Keep adding young players in the Kawhi Leonard mold along the way. The great thing about this front office is they are amazing in the draft. And best of all, they don't need a lottery pick to find quality players. By being active in draft day trades (plus the fact that they'll eventually start drafting closer to 20 than 30), the Spurs should be able to pick up some nice assets along the way via the draft.
-Avoid handing out any bad contracts. The dumbest thing front offices do is overpay role players ... especially on teams that aren't true championship contenders. The Spurs have to keep the big picture in mind and just let role players walk instead of wasting future cap space.
-Go after max free agents each summer until someone bites. By not wasting cap space on role players, the Spurs could conceivably have rolling cap space each summer until they finally land a big name. In the new CBA, there could be a few summers where only a few teams will be in a position to make significant moves. The Spurs have to be patient and wait for those years.
-Use cap space to horde assets. Contending teams often find themselves in situations where they are desperate to dump a salary or two. By staying below the salary cap, the Spurs could get in a position where they are able to absorb other team's mistakes in exchange for draft picks and/or quality prospects.
-Use job security as an advantage. Let's be honest, the current front office basically has a life long contract. They brought four championships to San Antonio … I couldn't imagine a time when any sane owner would think there might be a better group of people to man the front office. So with that job security in mind, the Spurs front office can take long-term gambles -- such as drafting Splitter even though he had a worrisome buyout situation. More than 90% of front offices simply couldn't risk wasting a first round pick like that.
In my opinion, this strategy makes quite a bit of sense with how things have turned out. It avoids blowing everything up, which is good news for Peter Holt and the ownership group. If the Spurs were to become a 20-win team, it'd be difficult to fill the AT&T Center even halfway with fans. But a slow decline would keep the fans coming through the gates. The negative aspect is the Spurs would miss out on high lottery picks but the front office might be able to make it work regardless.
This option has become a possibility because I think Parker and Splitter might be good enough to do some damage together. Previously, there was no hope after the Duncan and Ginobili exit. While the hope is just barely a glimmer, I think it's worth exploring. Parker running the ship with Splitter in the middle and Leonard on the wing? Hmmm ... if Parker can keep up his level of play, if Splitter can become a high-usage starter and Leonard can reach his potential, that's not a bad team.
I also like it that this would allow for a "passing of the torch" to the next generation. In my opinion, that was a hugely important yet often overlooked aspect in the transition from the team of the 1990s to the Big 3 Era Spurs. That crossover in eras was invaluable. Duncan got to learn the art of being successful in the NBA from players like David Robinson, AJ and Sean Elliott. And even though Parker and Ginobili only played with Robinson for a short time, I truly believed they learned a lot from him doing things the "Spurs way".
For the next generation, it'd be great if they can be connected with this generation and avoid having to start over from scratch. For example, someone like Leonard is learning more from Duncan and Ginobili than he could ever learn from a coach in terms of playing the right way, conducting himself in a proper manner, learning how to lead, etc.
It's going to be very difficult to transition into a third era that has championship level success but I think it's worth a try. Keep Duncan and Ginobili around as long as possible, hope Parker and Splitter (and maybe Leonard) can keep the Spurs compe ive and rebuild with aggressive yet savvy moves in the draft, on the trade market and in free agency.
If worst comes to worst, the Spurs will become mediocre and then bottom out in five or six years. Yeah, that could be viewed as a waste of time but now I think there's enough logic behind that strategy to support it.
P.S.
As far as coaching is concerned, I'd let Pop coach as long as he wants to coach. And then move Mike Budenholzer to the big boy chair once Pop is done.
Last edited by timvp; 02-28-2012 at 09:47 AM.
I like your idea of keeping Timmy and Manu for as long as possible. I don't think Tony and Tiago will ever stay healthy to carry us during the reg season. We need a big desperately.
Keep the big three as long as possible. Once Duncan and Ginobili retired, traded Parker for picks and young.
Keep Pop, Leonard and Splitter for rebuilding.
Well, I would wait to see what free agents the Spurs could get this summer.
Good post, Timvp.
I actually think that the Spurs' future is still quite bright for the next 2-3 years. Tim Duncan will surely acquiesce to a relative pay cut that could be enough to buy a decent FA next season. And adding a good FA (Nicolas Batum?) alongwith this core (after amnestying RJ), bringing Erazem Lorbek on a decent contract plus getting any of the vets on vet deals who would want to hop on to win a championship (there are quite a few - Kevin Garnett for e.g. or Steve Nash who are still very productive) can keep the Spurs in contention. And the later future can be built around the core of Parker, Splitter, Leonard. The future indeed seems bright.
Solid take and I agree 100%. I can see Parker, Splitter, and Leonard leading the team to the playoffs. As long as they get there anything can happen. They also have enough young role players (Neal, Green, and maybe Blair if he can become consistently productive) around that can be kept on for cheap. Just make Parker the defacto leader and see how things go. Straight-out blowing up won't solve anything and could very well screw the organization up to the point they're constantly on the rebuild.
Last edited by Robz4000; 02-28-2012 at 12:22 AM.
So many players on the Spurs are worth more to this team than they would be to any other team, at their salary levels. The Spurs could very well prefer paying Parker $12M to paying Deron Williams $17M, for example, because of the chemistry Parker has with the other players and his knowledge of the system.
And yes, I know, it's not like the Spurs really get to choose between Parker and DWill.
Other examples:
-Low to medium risk gambles on unproven young players ... like the Jackie Butler contract. (Obviously, that didn't work out but it was a worthwhile gamble.)
-Trading for Euro players who appear unwilling to jump the pond at the moment. Due to their job security, such players are more valuable to the Spurs FO than to other teams.
-Trading or signing a player with a character red flag. For example, a player that has a "coach killer" rep is more valuable to the Spurs since he couldn't actually kill a coach here.
Tbh, if you are going to trade Parker, you probably have to also trade Splitter. He's already 27 so he's not someone who you can try to build around by himself for the next decade.
I can't agree. Kawhi Leonard is likely to become one of those role players you don't want to overpay. Splitter might be too. You lose one of them when someone bids high and your plan comes crashing down to the floor. Besides, I don't think Tony is going to be much by age 32 or so based on the downfall of other players whose games revolved around their quickness (e.g., Isiah, Iverson, KJ, Archibald, etc.). I can't see any way to parallel the upcoming rebuild with the one the Spurs had with a young Hall of Famer in Duncan. A 1998 Tim Duncan would be worth every single player on the current roster. Rebuilding with Splitter as your main guy going forward is a far far cry.
Tim Duncan I can see us keeping around for a while longer but Manu I worry about him not even lasting for the rest of this season without him having to be think retirement. I doubt Manu stays after next season. But the other points I agree. Tony, Kawhi, and Splitter are all going to be great plus bring in some other talent to surround them.
As for free agency, I personally think it's an awful idea. San Antonio will never land the Shaq or the LeBron that you need to win a le in the NBA. They might get a Joe Johnson level player at best, and that won't get it done without a franchise guy from the draft.
Tony's beginning to show some good skills outside what his athleticism brings to the table. He's making better decisions with the ball, becoming better at passing and creating (though he still relies on sprinting into the paint to dish outside), and his leadership abilities will still be key in the future considering how well he knows the Spurs' system. He may also be able to attract marque free agents in the future based on his ties to Europe and the French bball team. It's also too early to determine where Kawhi's ceiling is, imo, it's only his rookie season. Splitter is injury-prone, but when healthy is a very solid bigman. The FO should be able to hold onto Kawhi and Tiago in bidding wars if they're serious about them; I can't see the FO pulling a Memphis, Cleveland, etc. unless they go way downhill.
This I agree with, but there's no reason they can't put together a 2003-2005ish Detroit-like team that can come out of nowhere to win. Thinking you need a superstar to have a shot at winning is pessimistic.
I would not resign Tim to the salary he's getting now. That would cripple us through infinity and beyond. Our light at the end of the tunnel is Duncan's expiring contract. That will free up cap space to bring in youth and talent. Duncan can stick around, but not for that money. Same with Manu. The guy is awesome, but he's only played about half the time he's been here (or so it seems).
We aren't going to go anywhere with no cap space and the same group of "stars" surrounded by role players.
As for the front office, if it were stocks they would be gone tomorrow because the Spurs will probably never be worth more than they are now unless they get some UT like contract (which ain't gonna happen).
No, it's been fun for a decade and more, but the credits are rolling on this movie. We say it every year, but this season is truly our last chance IF we do not receive some grand charity from mega-talent (which also isn't going to happen).
Our greatest gains, ever, were to have two ty seasons and acquire 1st overall picks on years that two of the greatest players of all time would go 1st. Almost any years between those two and we could still be ringless. Pretending we can re-manufacture that with sentiment and scouting is wishful thinking.
It's now or never for this group.
If we just want to continue getting to the playoffs and hoping for the best, that's different. We're doing ok with that now.
Oh, and I think there's a "z" somewhere in Bud's name but I like how you spelled it.
Last edited by DMC; 02-28-2012 at 12:44 AM.
I'd bring Tim back for sure for whatever he wants, and if the Spurs can show they can survive this season and have a respectable playoff run, then I bring Tony and Manu back for one more year. If the team is worn to ground by mid-April again, I trade Tony and Manu on draft day and try to stockpile picks like Presti did in Seattle. Then I hope I can draft the next Durant reasonably soon. I put it in RC's hands to find the next Westbrook and Ibaka. I don't hold onto Ray Allen to the bitter end.
I only give Duncan that to sell tickets. If it's about winning a ring, Tim is not worth that kind of money for anything but sentiment.
The Spurs have been in it years before. They've been to the Western Conference Finals several times in the past, a couple times before the Admiral was drafted. They may not ever be true contenders, but they can have a shot. You're right in that after this year the Spurs will more than likely not win a le with Tim, Tony, and Manu as their best players. However, there's no reason to think they can't find some way to win; they've found talent out of nowhere several times in the past.
So would it be worth going after a batum, Lopez, or Hibbert this summer, or would you see them as over paid role players?
I know, I've been a Spurs fan since before David was drafted. Regardless, the Spurs best two gains were Robinson and Duncan, both came from having 1st overall picks in the draft.
Big names do not choose to come to SA. They avoid it like the plague. They speak highly of it, but prefer the limelight.
It's wishful thinking to say that the Spurs can find some way to win a ring. It's not something you conjure up with a few key subs and rotation changes and a D-league call up. It's something you build for. The Spurs kill it in the regular season but their act is the oldest in the league and everyone knows it and can adapt to it in the playoffs.
There's no way this Spurs team takes out Miami in the next 4 years. They don't even take out Dallas or OKC in a best of 7, and Memphis is doubtful.
If you're not a true contender, you don't really have a shot. You just have the appearance of a shot.
The 2004 Pistons are the only team the last 32 years to win a le without a Hall of Fame level superstar still playing at prime level. The 1994 Rockets, 2003 Spurs, 2006 Heat, and 2011 Mavericks are the only ones to do it with only one.
But there's no reason the Spurs cannot do what's only been done once in 32 years.
I was thinking that there are a number of reasons, and that Timvp laid them out quite clearly in his defensive statistics thread.
I completely agree that this team can't contend, nor will they acquire a big name free agent. What I was saying is they can either find talent in the draft (doesn't have to be superstar caliber), through free agents that aren't game changers per-see, or even overseas as they've done in the past. The Spurs will need to make changes, and it may not work out, but it's hard to count out the FO with how successful it's been for generally the entire time the franchise has existed.
I don't really consider the 2007 Spurs a team with a superstar. Don't get me wrong, Duncan was still a highly capable bigman, Manu was still Manu, and Parker played out of his mind, but that team was mostly a group of veterans that banded together to get a ring.
Would you say the same about the 05 Spurs too?
lol come on, that was still when Duncan was in his prime. No way they'd beat a Pistons team that Kobe, Shaq, Malone, and Grant couldn't beat without Duncan at his best.
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