Let's Talk Rebuilding

[baseline bum]

Duncan was basically the same player in 07 that he was in 05, except he was healthier.

[DMC]

I completely agree that this team can't contend, nor will they acquire a big name free agent. What I was saying is they can either find talent in the draft (doesn't have to be superstar caliber), through free agents that aren't game changers per-see, or even overseas as they've done in the past. The Spurs will need to make changes, and it may not work out, but it's hard to count out the FO with how successful it's been for generally the entire time the franchise has existed.

Well you can only go back to the well so many times before you start drawing mud.

The difference between being a playoff team and not being a playoff team is very subtle, mindset and coaching quite often. The difference between being a playoff team and being a le contender is enormous, often cannot be overcome by better coaching of the same people or random acquisitions.

Unless Pop and crew can find enough talent to overcome the team stacking that's going on elsewhere, the Spurs are not going to see the show for a long ass time.

[sehui]

I don't really remember how San Antonio was back before Tim Duncan, but during the seasons when the team really sucked...how bad was the attendance?

[Robz4000]

Yeah, I guess when you look at it, they were basically the same. The stats from both season were similar, though Duncan seemed to be a more defensive presence than offensive. He just didn't strike me as overwhelmingly dominant anymore at the time, but it was mostly due to the fact the Cavs didn't require Duncan to go off to win.

I would like to add that the 2008 Celtics didn't really have superstar caliber players. By this time KG and Ray Allen weren't really superstars, and Pierce wasn't in his prime either. It's been debated a bit recently on the board, though.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I'd bring Tim back for sure for whatever he wants, and if the Spurs can show they can survive this season and have a respectable playoff run, then I bring Tony and Manu back for one more year. If the team is worn to ground by mid-April again, I trade Tony and Manu on draft day and try to stockpile picks like Presti did in Seattle. Then I hope I can draft the next Durant reasonably soon. I put it in RC's hands to find the next Westbrook and Ibaka. I don't hold onto Ray Allen to the bitter end.

The irony being that an aged Ray Allen later won a championship with the team he was traded to....

[DMC]

KG and Ray Allen certainly were superstars, in every sense.

[underdawg]

with the chances of the Spurs having a top tier player again in the near future being small, the Spurs can still compete with just sticking with a commitment to defense that a lot of teams ignore (possibly just to fill seats).

Where the Spurs can go beyond just being compe ive, lies in having more than 2 or 3 scorers (tony, manu and neal). In referring to scorers, I'm talking about players that can usually score regardless of the defense in the playoffs. Tiago might get there (hopefully this year), but he's more than likely going to be a defender along with Leonard and so far Green.

The Spurs are one more scorer (10 ppg in the playoffs) and one more big defender away from being true contenders.

[Robz4000]

Well you can only go back to the well so many times before you start drawing mud.

The difference between being a playoff team and not being a playoff team is very subtle, mindset and coaching quite often. The difference between being a playoff team and being a le contender is enormous, often cannot be overcome by better coaching of the same people or random acquisitions.

Unless Pop and crew can find enough talent to overcome the team stacking that's going on elsewhere, the Spurs are not going to see the show for a long ass time.

That's the one thing that's worrying me about the future. I'm hoping that Miami fails again and they decide to break up the big 3. Other teams like Chicago and OKC have gotten their talent through trades and drafting, which is basically how the Spurs will do it (again). The Spurs' ability to find foreign talent will also increase their chances.

Coaching in the playoffs can and definitely will make a difference, even if it's with the same group. Spurs were getting owned by LA through the early 2000s, then in '03 managed to find a way to beat them with the same core with added role players. Same can be said of the Suns finally beating the Spurs in '09 (though that had to do more with cir stance and father time imo). Keep in mind that match-ups are also extremely important. Had the Spurs ran into the Mavs in '07 they more than likely don't win the le, but because the Mavs faced a tough match-up in GS and lost, it opened the chance for the Spurs to reach the Finals.

The fact can't be changed that the Big 3 are just about done and the future will need to be planned out, but the future isn't bleak at all for the rest of the team sans Tim and Manu as long as the right adjustments are made and the right pieces added.

[Robz4000]

KG and Ray Allen certainly were superstars, in every sense.

By the time they got to Boston, they weren't. They were still star players and combined you could consider them superstars, but individually they were past their primes.

with the chances of the Spurs having a top tier player again in the near future being small, the Spurs can still compete with just sticking with a commitment to defense that a lot of teams ignore (possibly just to fill seats).

Where the Spurs can go beyond just being compe ive, lies in having more than 2 or 3 scorers (tony, manu and neal). In referring to scorers, I'm talking about players that can usually score regardless of the defense in the playoffs. Tiago might get there (hopefully this year), but he's more than likely going to be a defender along with Leonard and so far Green.

The Spurs are one more scorer (10 ppg in the playoffs) and one more big defender away from being true contenders.

+1. However, when it comes to this year, the offense is set. Rank 7 in offensive efficiency without Manu is spectacular. They need that defensive big though.

[therealtruth]

The Spurs have done it before with Parker and Ginobili. They need to apply that magic to looking for a bigman.

[therealtruth]

That's the one thing that's worrying me about the future. I'm hoping that Miami fails again and they decide to break up the big 3. Other teams like Chicago and OKC have gotten their talent through trades and drafting, which is basically how the Spurs will do it (again). The Spurs' ability to find foreign talent will also increase their chances.

Coaching in the playoffs can and definitely will make a difference, even if it's with the same group. Spurs were getting owned by LA through the early 2000s, then in '03 managed to find a way to beat them with the same core with added role players. Same can be said of the Suns finally beating the Spurs in '09 (though that had to do more with cir stance and father time imo). Keep in mind that match-ups are also extremely important. Had the Spurs ran into the Mavs in '07 they more than likely don't win the le, but because the Mavs faced a tough match-up in GS and lost, it opened the chance for the Spurs to reach the Finals.

The fact can't be changed that the Big 3 are just about done and the future will need to be planned out, but the future isn't bleak at all for the rest of the team sans Tim and Manu as long as the right adjustments are made and the right pieces added.

With the new CBA it's going to be harder to keep the big 3 together. Especially when the new taxes kick in.

[Robz4000]

With the new CBA it's going to be harder to keep the big 3 together. Especially when the new taxes kick in.

Pat Riley is the one owner besides maybe Buss and that Russian who owns the Nets who isn't afraid of going over the cap. Cuban is trying to get ownership of two professional franchises (God forbid) so he'll be less inclined to cross it while the rest of the league's owners aren't as wealthy (at least not ridiculously so). Only way the Heat big 3 are broken up is if they fail to win this year or next.

[angelbelow]

Great write up, agree with the majority of your take.
-Not overpaying the role player part is absolutely essential. In general the Spurs have been great with the contracts they hand out. In an era where overpaying someone is trendy, the Spurs must remain smart.
-Flipping players like Hill for solid players like Leonard is definitely another great way to keep things rolling. Maybe we can get lucky with Anderson and Blair too..

[jjktkk]

Nice writeup Tim. I disagree with the open checkbook for Tim and Manu though, giving their age and injuries, especially Manu. I definitely wouldn't lowball them, but if they still want to play, give them a far contract.

[Redshadows]

Tbh, if you are going to trade Parker, you probably have to also trade Splitter. He's already 27 so he's not someone who you can try to build around by himself for the next decade.

Well, I just think Splitter would be sort of a long time start center like Varejao, not a star to rebuild around.

The Spurs are always not attractive for big free agents and they might not be able to sign a good-enough star to be with Parker to keep the Spurs a contender for the champion. That is why I think the Spurs might rebuild the team through draft.

TBH, I always believe that with Pop and RC the Spurs would have a bright future.

[angelbelow]

Nice writeup Tim. I disagree with the open checkbook for Tim and Manu though, giving their age and injuries, especially Manu. I definitely wouldn't lowball them, but if they still want to play, give them a far contract.

I used to agree with approaching Duncan and Manu from more of a cut-throat business perspective and hand them fair contracts. To do that, you would have to ignore past accomplishments and only focus on the future. From that perspective both Duncan and Manu would probably deserve something like 3-5 million a year.

However, I think the open checkbook is absolutely the way to go with these two guys.
-The chances of us winning a championship probably won't change too much the next few years. Not until we can land a big time free agent or hit the jackpot in the draft. It won't really matter if we keep Duncan and Ginobili at an inflated value or if we happen to get them to accept low ball offers.
-2012: Dwight Howard and Deron Williams are the 2 biggest names but both are rumored to team up in Brooklyn or in Dallas. Outside of those two, there aren't many realistic options.
2013: Interesting options: Josh Smith, David West, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson.. but no big time, team changing type players.
-Therefore, we have to consider the entertainment and the business aspect of basketball. Duncan (and Ginobili) will fill seats and sell merchandise. They should hit their return of investment (roi) without much of a problem and therefore keep the ownership group happy. Sign Duncan to a 2 year 20 million contract to keep him happy and motivated, fill the seats, sell in merchandise, and wait until 2014 and see if there are any big time free agents at that time.

[Ditty]

I just hope we won't rebuild like the Rockets, and stack up on role players and tried to build a team around them except using those pieces to trade for a star

[jjktkk]

I used to agree with approaching Duncan and Manu from more of a cut-throat business perspective and hand them fair contracts. To do that, you would have to ignore past accomplishments and only focus on the future. From that perspective both Duncan and Manu would probably deserve something like 3-5 million a year.

However, I think the open checkbook is absolutely the way to go with these two guys.
-The chances of us winning a championship probably won't change too much the next few years. Not until we can land a big time free agent or hit the jackpot in the draft. It won't really matter if we keep Duncan and Ginobili at an inflated value or if we happen to get them to accept low ball offers.
-2012: Dwight Howard and Deron Williams are the 2 biggest names but both are rumored to team up in Brooklyn or in Dallas. Outside of those two, there aren't many realistic options.
2013: Interesting options: Josh Smith, David West, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson.. but no big time, team changing type players.
-Therefore, we have to consider the entertainment and the business aspect of basketball. Duncan (and Ginobili) will fill seats and sell merchandise. They should hit their return of investment (roi) without much of a problem and therefore keep the ownership group happy. Sign Duncan to a 2 year 20 million contract to keep him happy and motivated, fill the seats, sell in merchandise, and wait until 2014 and see if there are any big time free agents at that time.

I consider 20 mil. fair for Tim. As for Manu, I'm not sure what would be a fair contract. And I agree that these two along with tp, should be lifelong Spurs. I just don't want any crippling contracts a few years from now, that will cripple the Spur's eventual rebuilding.

[jjktkk]

I just hope we won't rebuild like the Rockets, and stack up on role players and tried to build a team around them except using those pieces to trade for a star

It will probably be similar. The Rockets team as presently constructed is the a good description for mediocrity. Good enough to possibly get in the playoffs, but not talented enough to contend. We Spurs fans have been spoiled by the Spurs impressive run, but without a few lottery picks and lack of a big market to entice marqee free agents, as well as a owner with deep pockets, we will struggle post Duncan era.

[mercos]

I agree with rebuilding on the fly and not blowing the team up. Parker has shown this year that he is an MVP caliber player that can lead a team. Tiago has shown himself to be a top ten big. They are the perfect duo to build around for the next few years. Reports of Duncan's demise have been greatly exaggerated as he is having a much better season this year than he did last year. The Spurs front office is the best in the game at finding cheap role players.

Blowing up the team and hoping to win the lottery is a recipe for years of mediocrity. There are many years where even the top pick is nothing special. Players like Tim Duncan and David Robinson come around once a decade at best. Planning around striking gold like the Spurs have previously is not wise.

[timvp]

I can't agree.

Understandable since I wouldn't have agreed prior to the season.

Kawhi Leonard is likely to become one of those role players you don't want to overpay. Splitter might be too. You lose one of them when someone bids high and your plan comes crashing down to the floor.

Could happen but that's not exactly a likely turn of events. Leonard could end up being cheap if he turns into a player who just concentrates on defense and rebounding. Or he could develop and be worth matching any outside offer. Maybe Splitter won't be worth his price tag but maybe he'll become a borderline All-Star like Marc Gasol and be worth a relatively big deal. I don't see anything concrete enough to decide the "scorched earth" route is better.

Besides, I don't think Tony is going to be much by age 32 or so based on the downfall of other players whose games revolved around their quickness (e.g., Isiah, Iverson, KJ, Archibald, etc.).

Probably right. But maybe he masters the midrange and turns into a Sam Cassell type and remains valuable in his mid-30s.

I can't see any way to parallel the upcoming rebuild with the one the Spurs had with a young Hall of Famer in Duncan. A 1998 Tim Duncan would be worth every single player on the current roster. Rebuilding with Splitter as your main guy going forward is a far far cry.

Agreed for the most part. There's no prime Duncan on this roster. And it's going to be almost impossible to transition into another group that can be championship caliber but any avenue the Spurs decide to take is going to result in long-shot odds.

If you do this gentle transition and avoid a complete scorched earth scenario, you can keep Typical Spur Fan engaged while possibly figuring out a way to put a compe ive team on the court. If in five years everything is bleak, you could always go scorched earth then. You can't, however, do it the other way around. Once you scorch, there's no turning back . . .

[timvp]

As for free agency, I personally think it's an awful idea. San Antonio will never land the Shaq or the LeBron that you need to win a le in the NBA. They might get a Joe Johnson level player at best, and that won't get it done without a franchise guy from the draft.

The Jazz landed Carlos Boozer and Memo Okur shortly after the Stockton/Malone era.

If the Spurs had Parker, Splitter, Leonard, Boozer-esque player and Okur-esque player ..... that ain't bad.

And the Jazz almost landed Corey Maggette after signing him to that offersheet. If the Jazz can land Boozer/Okur/Maggette types in free agency, there's no excuse for the Spurs FO.

[yavozerb]

The Jazz landed Carlos Boozer and Memo Okur shortly after the Stockton/Malone era.

If the Spurs had Parker, Splitter, Leonard, Boozer-esque player and Okur-esque player ..... that ain't bad.

And the Jazz almost landed Corey Maggette after signing him to that offersheet. If the Jazz can land Boozer/Okur/Maggette types in free agency, there's no excuse for the Spurs FO.

Money talks and if the spurs can compete with other offers then they certainly have good shot to land players. The usual case for the spurs in the past is the lack of $ offered to most FA's and therefore little interest from those FA's..

[timvp]

I would not resign Tim to the salary he's getting now. That would cripple us through infinity and beyond.

Tbh, re-signing Duncan to a deal he'd want would "cripple" the Spurs until that contract is over. Two years most likely.

Our light at the end of the tunnel is Duncan's expiring contract. That will free up cap space to bring in youth and talent.

Eh not really. It's not like the Spurs can use the Duncan money and make themselves surefire le contenders. It'll remain a longshot with or without the Duncan money on the books.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Timvp, what do you think the Spurs plans would be for this summer? Assuming RJ gets amnestied, the 1st round pick traded away and Blair or CJ salary dumped that could create more than $17 million in cap space.

Obviously a lot depends on what Duncan decides to do and how much he re-signs for, but do you think they'd go all out for a player like Hibbert, who'd probably demand close to max ( starting at 13M? ) or, since most players of this ilk are restricted and the offer likely matched, they could re-sign Duncan to something like 2 years and 15M, add Lorbek for something like 3 and 10M, target a MLE type of roleplayer with the rest of the cap space and then maybe sign De Colo with the new exception for teams under the cap. Any thoughts about the summer plans and potential targets?