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No the base didn't show up for mccain.
The "base" is basically a little less of what voted for McCain (I'm sure some independents cast a vote for him too, despite he was carrying dubya's cross). Just not nearly enough to get a guy elected.
No the base didn't show up for mccain.
sure it did. he doesn't win 22 states otherwise. just not enough. Dems have the same problem. that's why all candidates move to the center one way or another after the primaries. you can't win without that vote.
This is totally accurate, and I wonder why it seems to be such a mystery to so many people.
I agree that the only person who has a realistic chance against Obama is Romney, for all the reasons you stated. The others have just gone too far right to come back. Plus, I don't think they really want to come back...they are some real believers, I think.
I think it is Romney vs. Obama.
And I don't know who will win, but I think it is gonna get really dirty...dirtier than ever...and it is the independents who will decide the election.
You have to win in states like Ohio or Penn.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...ion2008/oh.htm
The graph showed that pretty much the same amount of Ohioans voted for Kerry and Obama but there was a -300000 votes from bush in 04 to mccain in 08. These voters are there but are not the kind of voters who want to pick between a giant and a turd sandwich. I'm not saying Romney is that but he might be.
Most people who say Romney is the only candidate to compete with Obama did and probably will vote for *obama again.
That's part of the independents. The base shows up and votes. That's why they're called the base.
independents aren't swing voters, that's a myth
An independent (party-unregistered} who votes Dem/Repug almost always votes the same party.
Last edited by boutons_deux; 03-12-2012 at 11:02 PM.
So ElNono, are you saying that the independents showed up for Bush but not for McCain?
Sure. Frankly, it isn't McCain fault. The TARP happened a month earlier and the economy was already in the ter. Congress was as apathetic as usual.
tbh, whoever wins the nomination needs to start talking about jobs, getting the economy on track, what they propose to fix healthcare if they plan to do away with Obamacare, etc. They're going to be talking to all America, not just their base.
Great point Elnono.
Bush won because he had more money, more connections, better organization, had Darth Vader as his VP, and was lucky to not have all the votes counted in Florida.
McCain lost because Obama was hip and cool.
And because he picked Sarah Palin as his VP
Yep, that too. LOL
The long GOP primary battle will give the Obama campaign more than enough fodder to torpedo the eventual nominee as being too far to the right.
The stupid being said has further pissed off and galvanized the liberals I know, including myself. We are rather flabberghasted by the things being said during this primary campaign to pander to the extreme right.
It will get dirty.
In the end, I think the independents will go for Obama again. My gut says he will win by a comfortable margin, but less than what he got for his first term.
McCain lost because he was following GW Bush. That would have been enough to sink him, but then he went and showed the poor judgment to pick Palin as his running mate, AND Obama was black.
Obama's historic candidacy brought out a LOT of new voters, as you pointed out, but it was not the deciding factor ultimately. All it did was further pad his win.
"small amount"
Imagine a three person panel chosen to decide things.
A has 49 votes.
B has 49 votes.
C has 2 votes.
C, in this case, has a "small amount" of votes.
Given that A and B almost always vote opposite each other, who makes the decisions in this microcosm?
As a Democrat, I hope your thinking, i.e. "we will win if we just go far enough to the right to make our base happy and excited", represents that of Republicans in general.
I hope you collectively keep thinking that for a long time to come.
Do you recall the unethical tactics used for the October Surprises by liberals?
I don't, but they were there.
"what I can't recall but remain nonetheless certain of, should receive your confidence too."
variant of "everyone knows what I mean". perh. related to "no red-blooded American disagrees"
Bush won reelection, despite being an unpopular president, because his opponent was John Kerry.
Obama will win, despite being an unpopular president, because his opponent will be Mitt Romney.
Not rocket science. Weak (esp from Massachusetts) candidates (See Dukakis, Michael) = Election losses
Hey man! long time, no read.
How are things in the frozen north?
65 Degrees today; not so frozen this year; in fact NO snow days, or even delays. Again, BIG TIME fan of global warming.
Also, I've been around; just somewhat inconsistent.
Obama has been the underdog from the beginning and I have consistently stated that it will be very tough for him to win re-election. It won't be easy that is for sure.
Spot on
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